Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[mwj1959] 01/3/2022 09:32

If the Prefs are only worth 22p the Ords should be at zero.

[mister md] 01/3/2022 09:24

can sell at offer price of 22p currently - bit odd

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 09:19

Wonder when Raven call it a day?Directors own a big chunk of pref.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 09:11

They won't reply to you, they would rns first.

[spectoacc] 01/3/2022 09:08

Be interested to know what you expect them to say.

[tyranosaurus] 01/3/2022 09:05

I have just emailed investor relations at RAV saying there should be an RNS.
Will see if I get a reply.
Suggest others should do the same.

[cc2014] 01/3/2022 09:03

It's nothing to do with Liz Truss. It's the numbers. They don't add up. They were on the edge and dependent on decent upward rent negotiations when interest rates hit 9.5% never mind 20% were we are now.

From year end accounts

Raven Profit? Well who knows. PAge 24 says the underlying earnings are a loss of £34.7m but that includes FX losses of £54m

Page 52 Sensitivity to Russian interest rate £3.5m per 100bp. Since 2020 year end interest rate up around 15% = £52.5m

Page 51 Sensitivity to FX. 1.3m per 10% move. Call it 30% move = £3.9m


Total sensitivity £56.4m to Raven's profits.

Raven cannot cope with 20% interest rates and pref shareholders will be behind the £630m of loans in the stack.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 08:56

I'm surprised not suspended or a rns from the company. It's Truss latest sanctions coming in that have caused the damage. Looks like the end.

[tyranosaurus] 01/3/2022 08:51

Now 20p to buy.
Still nothing from the company.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 08:49

Kenny sold as well.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 08:48

Lol boys never knew I was so popular.Don't worry about me out of Polymetal when invasion started.Raven sold most not all.Looks like going bust, thank goodness at golf yesterday, so did not buy any or reach my target of 30p.

[spectoacc] 01/3/2022 08:45

Fair point. Banks bailed out by the state. Can't see that happening with Raven.

[zangdook] 01/3/2022 08:42

Around 50% yield now in theory. Some bank prefs got very very cheap in 2009, and then recovered all the way.

[owenski] 01/3/2022 08:39

Holding this for a 12p div when it loses over a quid aint a clever strategy.

[tyranosaurus] 01/3/2022 08:18

Where has Kenny gone ??

[spectoacc] 01/3/2022 08:17

3 posts in 22 years @whataday, 2 of them yesterday and today, on RAVP & POLY?

[whataday] 01/3/2022 07:58

See post 1573He exited Poly on day 1

[mwj1959] 01/3/2022 07:07

@montyhedge I covered what happens if they missed a payment in an earlier post. Interest rate penalties are imposed and as you say the dividend gets carried over. Problem is that this may be of little relevance if the company is never going to be able to return any money to shareholders either via dividends or through return of capital after an asset sale.

[kev0856153] 28/2/2022 22:34

I actually feel sorry for Monty. He must have been nearly wiped put by RAVP and POLY.

[rayg5] 28/2/2022 21:33

But will another gangster get popular approval? Not when the invasion has set Putin against the Russian people.

[spectoacc] 28/2/2022 21:02

@Irish_Neris - therein lies the crux. This doesn't seem to have any easy resolution. Putin has had 30 years to create a gangster state, and a gangster would likely take over. No one is going to willingly give up their billions.

A popular rebellion? Not impossible. Free & fair elections in Russia would be a turn-up. Perhaps The Wagner Group could police them.

[m_kerr] 28/2/2022 20:44

IMV the risks are skewed heavily to the negative side. i love a bargain, but this is a value trap if i ever saw one. that's before considering any potential foreign asset seizures (reportedly stated by medvedev to be in retaliatory consideration).

if you have a buy to let property with LTV of 60%, and interest rates rise to 20%, whereas your rental yield is only 10%, you cannot meet the mortgage payments, and no-one will buy it off you at 'market value', because the goalposts have shifted. only difference here is it's arguably worse as they will have to pay back ca. €300m in 3 years.

[irish_neris] 28/2/2022 20:35

If Putin goes who takes over?

[dandigirl] 28/2/2022 20:03

Russian government cannot confiscate funds already offshore.

Company has to go into liquidation or administration before worrying about non-payment of obligations.

We simply do not know where hard currencies are held off-shore or how much?

Future depends on how long war lasts and consequences.

Share suspension likely to first sign of real trouble.

If Putin goes soon to be replaced by someone sensible, company could rise again.

Finals been published on 15/16 March last 2 years.

Will this timetable be adhered to this year?

If so, not long to wait.