Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 01/3/2022 14:10

One thing I hadn't thought of - what's the set-up for the global brand/company tenants in Moscow? ie could Raven be paid outside of Russia, for its Moscow rent? My guess is they're Russian subsidiaries, with Russian bank a/cs, where eg Raven paying Euro interest on its debt would be impossible due to sanctions. But be interesting to know.

The Raven lot were big with Neil Woodford - astonishing how Woodford touched has turned to dust. Allied Minds (s/p peak over £7) another.

[m_kerr] 01/3/2022 13:47

'Our secured finance facilities are amortising and therefore reduce each quarter. DSCR covenants are set at around 1.2 times and LTV ratios between 60% and 80% dependent on the facility. Covenant cover on both is comfortable, the average secured LTV ratio at the year end reaching 56% on weak exchange rates. Covenants are sensitive to exchange rates as we have an element of Euro denominated debt supported by Rouble denominated income. We continue to reduce our exposure to Euro debt as this is amortised at an accelerated rate compared to the Rouble element'
'The availability of finance. Given the amortising profile of our secured debt facilities we are continuously refinancing our portfolio. '

so they have contracted to cough up with euro repayments at 'an accelerated rate'. they're already at 60% LTV, and i think they'll be breaching covenants left right and centre.

£97m of debt refinancing next year (2023), £310m the year after (2024) and £131m after that (2025). there's no breathing space really.

[spectoacc] 01/3/2022 13:08

@SteMiS - I think @CC2014's post above is more accurate. There's no value in RAV or RAVP IMO.

EVR, JRS, POLY, POG? Quite possibly the same, tho in some cases with more diversification.

The "Publicly available information" is the 60km long line of Russian heavy armour approaching Kiev.

[stemis] 01/3/2022 12:36

There seems to be some sort of disconnect between the price of the ords (down 60%) and the prefs (down 80%).

The Russian properties are held by Russian companies so even if they can't get the money out it will be accumulating there. The question is whether, with the collapse of the Rouble, it will be worth enough to cover any Euro/dollar loan interest. I do note however from the finals that

"Other than our St Petersburg office portfolio, each of the secured
facilities sits in a special purpose vehicle (“SPV”) structure to minimise
recourse to the overall portfolio."

Undoubtedly Raven is going to be damaged by this but I don't think there is enough publicly available information to say if this will be terminal. Some SPVs may fail, some may survive. Will that be enough to fully protect the prefs? Honestly couldn't say. I don't think it's certain either way...

I suspect we may see pref dividends paid 'in specie' for a while

[waterfall city] 01/3/2022 11:40

You need to look at how the debt is held as its normally in silos, would covenants be relaxed in the circumstances,also are there debt free properties held plus theres the cash, and non Russian property.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 11:20

Yes looks like bust, someone just taken a punt 100,000 at 22.90.Directors own I think around 20% be interesting see what happens.

[m_kerr] 01/3/2022 11:16

i'd imagine there will be very serious pressure from the ESG brigade (and various governments - see the swiftly announced divestitures of shell and BP's russia interests) for all multinationals to pull out of russia.

[spectoacc] 01/3/2022 11:13

And that's before you get to the tenants.

Russia is uninvestable.

[m_kerr] 01/3/2022 11:09

CC2014 is correct IMV, and on my calculations this company is insolvent so worth 0p. they may have stood a chance of riding it out if they had a much lower LTV, very supportive banks who would waive covenants, with say 8-10 year maturities on the debt (and no hard currency debt), but the euro debt needs refinancing in 3-4 years, and even on the rouble debt, interest rates are double what their portfolio yield is when they need to refinance shortly. doesnt take a genius to see the very serious hole they find themselves in.

[hpcg] 01/3/2022 10:30

Odds are very strong all western owned assets in Russia are worth nothing to their current owners. That doesn't even matter to Raven as economic conditions will wipe it out and this is probably just a problem for the banks. It isn't punt money, it is a charity donation to those selling.

[mister md] 01/3/2022 10:21

well, I took the 22p and moved whatever was left of my holding to something less 'exciting' ...

[bisiboy] 01/3/2022 10:21

its not a Russian company- just russian assets

[my retirement fund] 01/3/2022 09:38

at 20p option money on a sudden Russian public uprising kicking the present Mafia regime out. 20p seems long odds to me, might be worth a punt at 5p. The very latest date for the year end results to to be published are when the option expires as company clearly insolvent.

There must always be a chance of suspension anyway as over in the US been forced to suspend all Russian companies.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 09:37

Lot of buys coming in, it's option money, for a punt I suppose.

[mwj1959] 01/3/2022 09:32

If the Prefs are only worth 22p the Ords should be at zero.

[mister md] 01/3/2022 09:24

can sell at offer price of 22p currently - bit odd

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 09:19

Wonder when Raven call it a day?Directors own a big chunk of pref.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 09:11

They won't reply to you, they would rns first.

[spectoacc] 01/3/2022 09:08

Be interested to know what you expect them to say.

[tyranosaurus] 01/3/2022 09:05

I have just emailed investor relations at RAV saying there should be an RNS.
Will see if I get a reply.
Suggest others should do the same.

[cc2014] 01/3/2022 09:03

It's nothing to do with Liz Truss. It's the numbers. They don't add up. They were on the edge and dependent on decent upward rent negotiations when interest rates hit 9.5% never mind 20% were we are now.

From year end accounts

Raven Profit? Well who knows. PAge 24 says the underlying earnings are a loss of £34.7m but that includes FX losses of £54m

Page 52 Sensitivity to Russian interest rate £3.5m per 100bp. Since 2020 year end interest rate up around 15% = £52.5m

Page 51 Sensitivity to FX. 1.3m per 10% move. Call it 30% move = £3.9m


Total sensitivity £56.4m to Raven's profits.

Raven cannot cope with 20% interest rates and pref shareholders will be behind the £630m of loans in the stack.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 08:56

I'm surprised not suspended or a rns from the company. It's Truss latest sanctions coming in that have caused the damage. Looks like the end.

[tyranosaurus] 01/3/2022 08:51

Now 20p to buy.
Still nothing from the company.

[montyhedge] 01/3/2022 08:49

Kenny sold as well.