Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 13/9/2018 11:34

Sb888, where PLus is concerned, Odey is Hanbury. Check out OADVMGI ID. On Odey himself, bouncing back very strongly this year. Markets are up, he is short, but he’s still made 20% this year. Macro and China did for him the previous 2 years.

[sb888] 13/9/2018 11:26

Odey caught a cold intiially. Instis get it wrong all the time

Do you mean this Odey?

[chucko1] 13/9/2018 11:21

Odey have NO doubts!!

[sailing john] 13/9/2018 10:38

Worth noting that as far as I can see PLUS are the only provider offering negative balance protection to professional clients. This surely has to be a big selling point as with the leverage available they are effectively betting the farm and risk losing everything (house, car etc.) if we have a market shock.

I will be watching to see if there is evidence of professionals moving from IGG/CMCX and others to PLUS. A sure sign would be if IGG copy PLUS as they did with cryptos.

It might take a year or two for this benefit to play out with EPCs choosing PLUS over others but I believe it will give them a significant advantage over the coming years.

GL - SJ

[hatfullofsky] 13/9/2018 10:37

Odey up to 11.26%

[sb888] 13/9/2018 10:26

1441 and a bit. Call it 1441. Always leg in

[f15jcm] 13/9/2018 09:58

The more I think about the Liberum estimates, the more I think they doesn't make sense, for both FY18 and FY19. Trading would have had to have hit a wall not to beat the full year estimate, which I just can't see, ESMA or no-ESMA (IG are predicting a 10% dent from ESMA at worst). Equally, given the company has said the bumper profits of FY18 H1 are unlikely to be repeated, the FY19 estimates do seem a little ambitious as there is inevitably going to be some impact from ESMA. I think it almost impossible that the FY18 and FY19 guidance can both be accurate, there's just too much of a disparity between H2 and FY19 figures.

[sb888] 13/9/2018 09:34

little bounce....as predicted. Finger on the button to short again

[hatfullofsky] 13/9/2018 09:34

Costax - Proper rerate soon .... here in PLUS !

Forget SBTX they're years away, focus on OPTI

[shaker44] 13/9/2018 09:30

Costax filtered along with the other 2 trolls.this board makes more sense again now

[costax1654x] 13/9/2018 09:12

Sbtx 8% up...proper rerate soon

[mutime] 13/9/2018 09:06

Reading on this B.B. is far better when filter used

Very helpful bear perspective from thechurch333- thank you.

I also think they have been very, very cautious on levels of professional sign ups. 90% of revenues come from 9% of clients . Many of these will be worth the required wealth level and are existing traders .

Also the growth in Australia in H1 from 1.5% to 10% of total revenues is encouraging . Singapore is new to them but the established competitor (IG) has been well beaten for a few years in Europe in terms of new customer acquisition. So if there are growth opportunities Plus will win them.

Israel and sustainability concerns from churn will impact rating. However not to the extent of a Pe of 7 and greater than 10% divi !

Lots of moving parts and only a few weeks until Q3 story is told . 20% down side . Upside is 100%.

[dl6789] 13/9/2018 08:52

thechurch333, you raised a fair point regarding the founders only having a 90-day lock in period this time as opposed to 180-days. My question there would be, if they were so eager to get out, why didn't they just sell their entire stake? Or at least more than 50%? Also, I don't think these shares would have been taken up by tracker funds. Those funds aren't paid to generate alpha, they are paid to track the index as closely as possible. Why would they purchase shares over 2 weeks before Plus500's inclusion into the FTSE250 and risk nursing losses?

The Playtech sale also made sense to me - they've made a solid return on Plus500 and are now looking to restructure their own company by reducing debts. Instead, the fact that 18% of the business was placed at £15.50 says to me that at least 18% of holders see significant value above £15.50. Of course I could be wrong, that's just my opinion. I guess we won't truly know the state of affairs until the next trading update.

[gettingrichslow] 13/9/2018 08:48

Hat, it could have just been written more clearly though surely. It's kind of important to make it clear!!

[hatfullofsky] 13/9/2018 08:41

What the results actually state is "...and current trading in the third quarter to date has been in line with market expectations".

That is not reflective of FY only Q3

[noujay] 13/9/2018 08:36

Two things:a) Liberum used the phrase "super-cautious" to describe estimate for H2. They will certainly be beaten in my view.b) surely most have filtered SB if for no other reason than wishing illness on others. I did this two weeks back and it's quite refreshing to see blank posts as a result of the filter, and know you are missing out on..absolutely nothing!

[f15jcm] 13/9/2018 08:31

Looking at Liberum's estimates, they estimate EPS of 284.7c for FY18. We've already had 230c (80%) of that in H1. As thechurch points out, management told us that the company is trading in-line with that expectation. That makes for a very modest H2 and no doubt it's why we have seen such a pullback in the share price. What I can't get to grips with is the FY19 estimates. If trading has dropped off so much from FY18 H1, where is the FY19 EPS estimate of 250c going to come from? It doesn't appear to add up to me.

[davroc] 13/9/2018 08:30

Hatfullofsky.I've suggested many times that the filter should be used. It doesn't happen. Ican only assume that some on this board like to read and respond to the constant drivel.

[hatfullofsky] 13/9/2018 08:30

sb88813 Sep '18 - 08:24 - 14733 of 14733 (Filtered)

That's all I got .... bliss

[sb888] 13/9/2018 08:24

So funny, the bulls getting all uptight about this

OK, yes, i bought back to early yesterday, but it has bounced as I thought. NOt ready to re enter my short yet. maybe tomorrow afternoon

I will tell you lot though. I know how you are waiting for me, dying for me to slip up...aint gonna happen girls

[gettingrichslow] 13/9/2018 08:18

He just hasn't grown up properly yet. I'm serious. It's what most children are like until they are through adolescence and out the other end. If he got himself a girlfriend he would calm down and be happier, without the constant need to shout 'look at me, I'm great!' every half an hour.