||ORD ILS0.01 (DI)
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Software & Computer Services
Plus500 Share Discussion Threads
Showing 11551 to 11574 of 11575 messages
|Managed to fill all of my order last 2 days so I think a nice time to buy these...time will tell of course :-)|
|Good to see from the Q1 trading update that there was a record number of Active Customers during the quarter. That record was achieved in spite of the decrease in new customers over the past 4 quarters – 29k, 28k, 22k, 22k presumably due to the reduction in marketing spend.
All ties in with this extract from the Q3 2016 trading update –
“In addition, the lifetime value of the Group's customers is increasing, as a greater proportion of higher value customers are being added, as well as the loyalty of customers, measured by their longevity on the platform, is growing.”
Very good to see also that the margin has returned to around the level of the FY 2014 value of 64% -
Q4 2016 was 64% and Q1 2017 was 59%. FY2016 was only 46%.
hTTps://www.research-tree.com/blogs/news/plus500-q1-earnings-jump-25-despite-9-fall-in-revenue is worth a read.|
|I actually think it's quite modest, considering nearly half of FY EBITDA was made in first quarter...|
|.....who are the house broker! Nothing like talking your own book!|
|Research out from Liberum 5.05 TP
|IGG and CMCX struggling to keep up with PLUS - especially after their significant reduction in AUAC for the last two quarters. More to come given the differential in PE - my target remains 600+ by Mar 2018 having now updated my model for the full year
Chart from 6th Dec when FCA announced Reg changes
Excludes 50p divi from PLUS! and 9p from IGG
Edit - Note chart not yet updated for today's price move|
|Anyone think it will see 500p today?|
|Good on cost control, but it must be worrying with a drop in new mug punters.
Does the fact that of the 155k of current punters, that 100k are new and that new mug punters numbers were markedly down?|
|Added Q1 actual to my model forecasts
All slightly better than I forecast but I aim to be cautious - pleased to see AUAC remains much lower than historic average
Overall positive tone and another new heavyweight Non Exec appointed
.....Q116 Q416 Q1(E) Q1 Act
Rev. $85m $92m $75m. $77.5
New C 29k 22k. 20k.. 22k
Act C 68k 72k. 68k...72k
ARPU 1256 1277 1100. 1080
AUAC 1316 742! 1200. 907
Need to update my FY to reflect lower costs - Rev unchanged but PBT will increase|
|Impressive cost control..|
|From today's RNS -
· Significant improvement in profitability and quality of earnings:
o Quarterly revenues of $77.5m and EBITDA1 of $45.8m, an increase of 25% compared to Q1 2016
o Strong EBITDA margin of 59% ahead of market expectations|
|Well done sailing John, pretty close! Great to see even lower auac|
|JS - I'm slightly more optimistic than you for Q1 KPIs forecast: Revenue $81m, New customers 33,000, Active customers 78,000, ARPU $1,040, AUAC $1,385, Marketing spend $46m.
My understanding of the low ACAC in Q4 2016 is because marketing spend dropped off considerably in Q4 at to $16.6m compared to Q1: $37.9m, Q2: $37.9m and Q3: $32.6m. This meant as a proportion a higher number of customers of the total were acquired by natural search and brand strength and fewer customers recruited by paid search/words.|
|I still dont like the comparison to IGG. They have different business models and this crackdown on regulation will highlight the differences|
|Lyd - I can't predict active customers/new users other than assuming the previous quarter's trend will continue. However volatility has proved to be a good guide to trading volume and can vary revenue by plus or minus 15% or so each quarter and there are various measures that can be monitored in real time to give an idea of what is likely for the current quarter. (And of course IGG are out of synch reporting wise so their 3Q to end of Feb gives an early indication of what to expect in PLUS's Q1)
Will be interesting to see where AUAC lies for Q1 given that it halved in Q4 last year and we don't know why/how although I would expect a knock on to new customers - hence my forecast reduction of 10% to 20k in Q1.
I keep trying to refine my model and try to keep it cautious as I'm either long or out depending on valuation - my current target is North of 600p which would still put it on a significantly lower multiple than CMCX or IGG|
|SJ - It seems your focus is on volatility. Given their model, I would think the focus should be on customer gains, as they usually benefit on gaining new punters, and the punter losing their couple of grand, then moving onto the next lot|
|Repost of my Q1 KPI model output - posted above
Will be able to compare with actuals tomorrow
.....Q116 Q416 Q117(E)
Rev. $85m $92m $75m
New C 29k 22k 20k
Act C 68k 72k 68k
ARPU 1256 1277 1100
AUAC 1316 742! 1200
FY 2017 model ouput
Rev $295m vs $328m in 2016
PAT $97m vs $117m in 2016
PE 6.2 at 420 and 1.25
Yield 10-15% dependent on special
|Morning Lyd - where in my post does it say I'm happy!
Anyway as you rightly say not significant - and are others having the same conversations with the FSMA in Belgium?
I'm not an Internet expert but it must be difficult/impossible to prevent access to Internet advertising (perhaps from third parties) from just one country
And in PLUS's case they are shirt sponsor to Atletico - I assume fans aren't stopped at the airport if they are wearing AM shirts and Belgians are allowed to watch Champion's League football - not seen the detail so no idea how they attempt to enforce
I understand that Regulatory controls are actually working against the intended purpose as non regulated providers are moving in to fill the gap leaving customers at greater risk.
Anyway an interesting debate - not expecting a strong Q1 tomorrow given the record low volatility. A decent April though until yesterday when market calmed by French election first round. Plenty more volatility drivers on the horizon though
GL - SJ|
|Im not getting excited about half a bar, but you would have to ask if this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Im glad you are happy with the company for breaking the rules......again|
|Where's Lydnem (aka ElCap) usually gets very excited at anything negative for PLUS
PLUS - Belgium FSMA fine of Euro 0.55m - presumably not complied with ban on advertising or offering leveraged products in Belgium
1Q TS is tomorrow which will be more significant for price
RNS but Leaprate puts a little more meat on the bones
|Yep looks like the regulation is going to get kicked into the long grass.|
|Maybe a change in direction over regulation And plenty of trading around the election. Good news, imho.|
Might be waiting awhile yet for the FCA ruling to come through.
Probably even less of an impact in this years earnings then|
|Thanks Sailing John, cheers for the correction/ Still a great co.|