Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[markbelluk] 27/10/2020 16:50

Jefferies:- The favourable conditions have so far enabled Plus500 to build up cash of $723 million, about half of which analysts at Jefferies estimate could be available for distribution to shareholders or set aside for acquisitions. The broker said: “We assume a $50 million special dividend this year, although this still implies considerable headroom for further distributions and/or acquisitions.” Liberum, which has a price target of 1,950p, said today’s better-than-expected third-quarter performance also reflected the benefits of the group’s best-in-class trading platform: “Its scalable technology and agile marketing algorithms has enabled it to win significant market share and drive continued improvement in financial returns.” The City firm increased its full-year earnings forecast by another 8% and pointed out that shares were still only trading on 4.8 times 2020 earnings.

[base7] 27/10/2020 16:09

I agree- assuming the majority here are long, why would we want to de stabilise our share price further -although Buys seem to be outweighing sells, despite the mark down. I suspect Rob has a standard response to whinging emails as I received mine shortly after seeking clarification.

[chucko1] 27/10/2020 15:56

Sod the journalists - stick to the facts. PLUS is in great shape and it has always been cheap because of the nonsense IR. But that is why there is so much money to be made - try and ignore the noise. If you cannot, tough, because this is a noisy share. Can we also cut the whining a tad!!

[andrewbaker] 27/10/2020 15:37

The share price fluctuates more like betting odds than a business making money on betting, which is effectively what Plus500 is. If it drops any lower, I'm buying more (and might do anyway).

[handykart] 27/10/2020 15:06

If you did get journalists to run a story, I suspect they would sensationalise it. This is what they do. I suspect they would look at Plus500 past history, and come up with some negative opinion, which will not be good for the share price, and us shareholders.Might be worth bearing this in mind before e.mailing them.

[gabemckeown] 27/10/2020 14:42

Hat: Potentially, although that would appear to contradict the general sentiment of the update (pre-analyst forecast reiteration), and also would contradict the idea of a 'gradual reduction', that was mentioned. Will be interesting nonetheless.

[markbelluk] 27/10/2020 14:08

?Liberum are @ $100m "we assume a relatively conservative income forecasts for 4Q20 of $100m."

[rhatton] 27/10/2020 13:56

hats, which would imply some strong customer performance? Otherwise why would they say it. Liberum are at $116 million in revenue for Q4. They also mention a loss in customer pnl of $40 million

[hatfullofsky] 27/10/2020 13:49

gabe - they are 1/3 of the way through Q4, so maybe they are tracking to $24m EBITDA.

[johnkettleyistheweatherman] 27/10/2020 13:04

gasp for us pig filth

[gabemckeown] 27/10/2020 12:38

@base7: Might be worth emailing a couple of journalists, expressing your frustration at Plus500's update, along with a reference to the other frustrated shareholders on this forum, and LSE's forum. It may cause Plus500 to take notice, if they are contacted by a journalists preparing to run a story, rather than just the shareholder's themselves. Just an idea, but might be worth considering. Thanks for your help thus far.

[gabemckeown] 27/10/2020 12:35

Hatfullofsky: In my opinion, there is a big difference between bragging about exceptional results, and simply providing a more accurate forecast, rather than deliberately using outdated analyst estimates. They need to appreciate that references full year expect, that would ultimately calculate out as Q4 being the worst quarter since 2015, is a fairly dangerous approach to market updates, even if they are simply planning to update the city at a later date. A middle ground between these two extremes, would probably be best.

[base7] 27/10/2020 12:28

Thanks to all of you who have emailed the key personnel for clarification.They have certainly produced a mixed message & if some of us, with our relatively modest holdings ( ie relative to IIs) have sold this morning, or are considering selling , I am sure that our CEO wont want our IIs having the same thoughts.I am sure that our CEO & /or FD have spoken with our larger shareholders & "comforted " them that all is well, knowing that uncertainty could result in larger holders disposing of some or all of their holdings -which would not have been the desired outcome from todays update.

[hatfullofsky] 27/10/2020 12:10

Madness !!!! What PLUS don't need right now is to be shouting from the rooftops "we've done brilliantly, we're going to smash expectations and pay a significant exceptional bonus" during a pandemic where so many are suffering, physically and financially.FFS read into the commentary as you wish and make investment decisions based on the information to hand. Absolutely no point trying to shame a company to change their conservative estimates.

[rhatton] 27/10/2020 11:46

SJ do you think they have tried to come across as a more mature credible company by issuing forecasts for the future? Given that most think the forecasts have always been behind the curve then this has backfired somewhat. The only thing plus could do was to say they would beat the consensus forecasts newly listed on the website. Why they didn’t who knows?

[sailing john] 27/10/2020 11:40

Sadly whatever the outcome they have lost credibility on forecasts - they may as well not bother issuing them in future. I'm wondering if the new CEO has been involved in this. There has imo been a notable change in stile to one of extreme caution. No problem with caution but there is a need for credibility and Q4 clearly doesn't fit with the actuals for Q3 and forecasts for 2021!

[mighunter] 27/10/2020 11:36

Have also emailed. $49m of Revenue and $24m of EBITDA in Q4 to hit consensus results. When average MONTHLY YTD run is $86.7m Rev and $55m EBITDAThere's being conservative and then there's just being plain wrong...

[gabemckeown] 27/10/2020 11:30

My first post on this forum, as I think the misleading Trading Update is enough to warrant the effort of making an account: It may be worth directing your emails towards a journalist (or multiple journalists) at say the FT, Telegraph, Bloomberg, etc, and maybe reference the current furore taking place on these forums. This might lead to additional pressure being placed on Plus500 to address their overly cautious, and thus misleading, trading update, due to the fear of negative press if they do not do so. Just an idea, but something I am considering (have posted on LSE aswell).

[rhatton] 27/10/2020 11:30

SJ, 1 month into Q4 could customer TP have been positive enough thus far to warrant meeting concensus?

[sailing john] 27/10/2020 11:28

rHatton - Yes received a reply but doesn't address the Q4 implied Rev/EBITDA issue so I have sent another email!

[doctor888] 27/10/2020 11:13

@rhatton have a link for the Liberum note?

[rhatton] 27/10/2020 11:12

Rob replied as I’m sure he has to you guys too with basically a cut and paste of parts of the update.

[sailing john] 27/10/2020 11:07

I doubt they will be willing to make any clarification/U turn on Q3 TS but I hope the impact of lots of investor emails will mean that future TS's will be issued with a little more thought and scrutiny! I hope Blackrock who will have seen a circa £7m reduction in their 5% holdings today are also making waves! SJ

[rhatton] 27/10/2020 11:05

New Liberum note out just now. Guiding for income forecasts of $100 million for Q4. Also guiding for ARPU in Q4 of $705