Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Plus500 Ltd LSE:PLUS London Ordinary Share IL0011284465 ORD ILS0.01 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  25.50 1.72% 1,509.00 227,854 16:35:23
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,507.50 1,509.50 1,513.00 1,482.00 1,482.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services 638.16 382.75 344.50 4.4 1,555
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:28:55 O 90 1,499.988 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
16/3/202117:20PLUS. Let's talk about the company389
28/2/202119:34Plus TRADES thread.12
01/12/202018:06PLUS500 - CFD trading systems24,495
16/9/202007:09Ways to get Plusone Coins21
30/8/201916:42MINUS 500-

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Plus500 Daily Update: Plus500 Ltd is listed in the Software & Computer Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PLUS. The last closing price for Plus500 was 1,483.50p.
Plus500 Ltd has a 4 week average price of 1,294.50p and a 12 week average price of 1,234p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,659.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1,010p.
There are currently 103,056,032 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 306,373 shares. The market capitalisation of Plus500 Ltd is £1,555,115,522.88.
chess123: IGG Trading update tomorrow, there share price is up 22p today, probably going to be great TU , which will hopefully push up Plus. Back above 1400p
sailing john: rH re share dealing Equiniti have just completed a deal today to sell their UK sharedealing D2C business (formerly Selftrade - I'm a customer) for £48m to II. - They don't say how many customers but with assets under management of £5.3bn must several hundred thousand perhaps even 1m? EBITDA was only £3.3m so not significant additional profit compared to PLUS's existing profit. The value to PLUS of acquiring a sharedealing provider is not the sharedealing profit imo (as tiny) but the acquisition of (sticky) customer numbers and the possibility that some might move to trade CFDs as well. hTTps:// Also IG already have sharedealing - Lots of sharedealing customers but only low Rev relative to CFDs - See latest results here- hTTps://
simplethesis: Groan. The CG price target came from a 29 September note in which Mr Bates reckoned the business would do $526m revenues and 185p EPS in 2021 and $406mm revenues and 115p in 2022. He put a 5% discount on a long-run 8.7x multiple to value Plus500 at 8.3x that 115p. By valuing the company on FY22 "normal" EPS he was explicitly ignoring the profits earned before that time. He had $148m PAT in FY22. He had Plus500 earning $272m PAT in FY21 and $529m in FY20. So that's $124m of "supernormal" profits in FY21 and $381m in FY20. They add up to $505m. At a 958p price target with 105m shares and then a 1.286 FX rate at the time, that's a $1295m valuation of the company. The $505m of "supernormal" profit which he implicitly discards is 39% of his target price. That seems not great. High churn was part of his reasoning. He estimated 45% churn in 2020, then 60% in 2021. The 2020 churn rate ended up being 30%. Somehow the CGF target price is unchanged. Curious. He estimated 100k new clients in 2021. Let's see how Q1 pans out. In the same report he values CMC at a 5% premium to IGG's 14.3x historical average 1y forward multiple. He uses CY22, but has CMC's March '22 and March '23 profits at the same level, because he believes it can recycle profits to create growth. This reminds me of another company. The essence is that CGF has CMC's FY to March '23 profits at 45% of the level of FY21, while it has Plus500's 2022 profits at 34% of 2020. As ever, this is driven by an annual customer churn assumption. What he misses, despite having been the company's broker for years, is that all customers are not equal. The customers in any cohort who stop trading first are the ones with the shallower pockets. Yes, Plus500's customer churn is high compared to peers, but it has a huge number of lowish value customers from whom it makes good returns, having as it does a low cost online process and support function, and then it has 9% of customers who are > 90% of the revenues. As a result you would expect high churn in terms of customer numbers, but this has little bearing on the decay rate of a cohort's revenues. Nowhere does he understand that the c. 300k new customers in 2020, the result in great part of $221m of marketing spend, will have lasting value. The company gave us cohort revenue data in August and again just now. It looks like the 2020 new customers only generated, at a maximum, $170m revenue in the year. They will generate that sort of number again this year, i.e. a lower run-rate but in 2020 they were on average only there for a little more than half of the year. Look at the 'High return on Marketing Investment" slide and you will see that that sort of year two revenue return on marketing spend is typical. As for current expectations, the company did $382m of customer income in 2019, with only 77k customers carried from 2018 into Q1 2019. 2019 had really low volatility. This year it will start with c. 165k customers carried from 2020. It is expected to do $430m revenues after what I estimate to be a $22m hit from lower leverage in Australia, so $452m before that. Is it realistic that you spend $221m on marketing to drive so little growth over the low-vol 2019 level? Exceptionally improbable. I have 2021 customer income of $690m, revenue of $590m. 55k new customers Q1, then a low 24k assumed in subsequent quarters. A low $980 quarterly ARPU is assumed, then lowered by ASIC measures. At 1408p the stock is on 6.3x my this year forecast of 223p. Consensus is at 144p. It seems conservative to expect the company to trade to 10x, with these returns. If the stockbroking product and other non-trading product are well-received, and the moderate external hedging is understood to be reducing quarterly revenue volatility, then the multiple will be higher. Of those 10 million downloaders of the app from the Google store, perhaps some, who do not want to trade with leverage right now, might be customers in another way?
hatfullofsky: Wow - no commentary from the board, shows the interest levels an partial reason behind the depressed share price I would expect this to be greeted well in the market but normally PLUS dives on results...... MCAP £1421 / share price 1379 PBT $523m EBITDA up 168% to $515.9m Cash balances to $593.9m ($83m divi +$25 buy back to come) Implementation of targeted hedging in FY 2021 to reduce market risk, as appropriate strategy to access future growth, through organic investment and targeted M&A: Final Divi 54c / Special Divi 28c Platform usage remains elevated in FY 2021 to date Further outperformance of Customer Income and across key operating metrics Offset by continued heightened movements in Customer Trading Performance
olig1: Simplethesis, I'm not sure what your point is either. He doesn't have inside information is my point. His actions seem perfectly understandable to me. He increased his stake in March when the market went crazy and the price of Plus dropped. I did the same as it was clear what a bargain Plus was at this point. Following an almost double of the price he sold about half of what he bought in March but retains over 80% of his shareholding. To me this is a rebalancing of a portfolio not a vote against Plus. Again I have done the same. If he has special knowledge about Plus and doesn't believe its prospects are great he would be mad to have sold less than 20% of his holding.
rhatton: It has also increased its adjusted earnings per share estimate by 19% for 2020, reflecting the third-quarter results and “supportive fourth-quarter key performance indicators" Plus500 Ltd - Jefferies has upgraded its call on the shares of online trading group Plus500 PLC (LON:PLUS), citing scope for “material upside” to the company’s full-year 2020 earnings guidance. The US broker pointed out that, after an exceptionally strong set of third-quarter earnings, the company opted to stick with the full-year consensus figures already in the market. “This implied fourth-quarter revenue around the lowest level since the second quarter of 2014, which struck us highly conservative at the time, but particularly so following elevated retail equity market volumes in the wake of US election and potential Covid vaccine announcement,” Jefferies said. “With little to suggest to us that customer trading performance has been unusually problematic, we see scope for a positive trading update to support earnings upgrades and multiple expansion.” Its analysts have moved to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ on the stock, raising their price target 30p a share higher to £17.60. At just after midday, the shares were marking time at £14.94. Jefferies has increased its adjusted earnings per share estimate by 19% for 2020, reflecting the third-quarter results and “supportive fourth-quarter key performance indicators”. Its full-year 2021 and 2022 forecasts “rise 10-13% reflecting higher revenue, on stronger growth in active users, and lower costs/normalised tax rate”. The EPS estimates exclude a tax rebate of more than US$100mln which will be received “in FY20/21”, Jefferies said. Anyone know what they are at for 2021/22?
simplethesis: Can anyone explain in plain terms which kind of volatility benefits Plus? Volatility is good. Specifically, big daily trading ranges are good. High VIX clearly good for equity indices and single equities. Clients tend to be net long equities, particularly, but also indices. As Plus500 does not hedge externally, as it is, that means that they have tended to benefit from market declines and suffer, in the short term, from market rises. Examples would be Q4'18 and the market rebound in Q1'19, also Q1 this year and then Q2. Volatility happens for a reason, which typically means that event-focussed newsflow picks up, to the extent sometimes that it "cuts through" and provokes others to think about trading. Newsflow drives new clients, then volatility drives trading velocity and customer income. Note that this language about up/ down markets and Customer Trading Performance is all short term. In all cases, whether IG/ CMC/ Plus500, the platform is principal to the trader. In the case of Plus500, as there is no external hedging, if their book is net long equities and those markets fall, they make money immediately as they are the other side of the trade. This was however money which would otherwise have come to them over time through spreads, as the customer continues to trade. hence this is a timing issue. The other way round, if a customer makes money, on a gross basis, then they are likely to trade more and in greater size because their account is flush. It's important to understand that CTP and CI are a disaggregation of revenues. All that matters in the end is those revenues, which have averaged to a quarterly ARPU of $1006 since the start of 2019, or $1044 ex CTP. ARPU in the first three quarters of the year has averaged to $1220, which means that the rate at which customers' money has been flowing to Plus500 has been elevated, but only by 20%.
rhatton: Have just finished reading the broker note from the other day. Alludes to what simple has been saying in terms of the earnings for next year “Despite the likely increase in the latent earnings potential of the platform during the quarter, we leave our FY21 and FY22 forecasts unchanged at this stage given the uncertainties, and will revisit these once we have a sense for how the business is likely to perform in a more normalised environment. 1950p TP implies 20% upside potential Based on our updated forecasts for FY20 the shares trade on a PE of 4.8x and offer a dividend yield of 8.0%. We see the latter as particularly attractive given the upside that could prevail should our 4Q20 estimate prove too conservative, and the fact that on more normalised earnings the stock is just trading on just 11.1x CY21 earnings and 6.6x EV/EBITDA. Given the performance of the platform during the quarter, it is clear to us that Plus500 is the leading operator in the retail CFD space. As a result, we believe that the current discount at which it trades to its peers will unwind, and set our target price using a 13.0x multiple. We apply this to our FY21 earnings and add a small premium to reflect the supernormal returns being generated in FY20, part of which is likely to be returned to shareholders via the dividend. Our unchanged target price of 1950p implies upside of 20% from the current share price.”
simplethesis: oi-oi - When you say it doesn't smell right, I hope you will accept my suggesting why you recognise a peculiarity. This is not a normal company. It's an outlier. You recognise that. It's an exceptional marketing machine selling a very high margin product. No external hedging means high revenue volatility, but higher financial returns than the competition, recycled into more growth marketing and R&D. The people running it are, very probably, smarter than you/ we are. Changes are brought about by high-end industrial engineers, and if you see a change in the app, it's because it's been AB tested and provides a marginal benefit. Take a moment to look at the calibre and pedigree of the top management, and look over the careers site (URL below). The good news is that senior management are heavily paid on long term share price performance, through share appreciation rights, so they are aligned with minority shareholders. The acquisitions of which the company speaks could indeed be of customer lists, but if they'd wanted to do that they could have bought Gain Capital. They have consistently said that customer acquisition is best done organically. Acquisition/ development of simple share trading has been described as "trivial". The deals of which they speak will be more than that; new products and services, ancillary to CFD trading. Think of their technical competence now - approximately 36 million trades processed last year, low latency (when the IG site kept failing), fast online chat response, over $2.2bn of deposits in 2020 so far, low chargebacks, and a fully self developed cashier and processing system. Senior management at Plus500, and we as shareholders, will make great money as the company carries on taking share in a growing space, but the bigger opportunity is for the marketing machine also to work with other business lines such that the company as a whole attracts a higher multiple than 10x year two. hxxp://
oi_oi_savaloy: Simplethesis - thank you for your excellent response; I don't doubt that the numbers Plus are going to deliver are in excess (probably way in excess of) their written rns but I've been caught out before (buying Plus and then seeing the share price tank, rather like my disco dancing did at a rave in '89......) and just need the reassurance that this Board has considered all sides of the argument. I seem to remember we've been caught out by PNL going the wrong way for Plus before (last year?). As crazy as Djokivic1 has explained it (really, really hard for PNL to go against us) there's still that possibility of Plus being on the wrong side of that (and that's possible right?)
Plus500 share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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