Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Plus500 Ltd LSE:PLUS London Ordinary Share IL0011284465 ORD ILS0.01 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  32.00 2.15% 1,523.50 1,547,650 16:29:58
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,521.00 1,523.50 1,523.50 1,481.00 1,491.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services 267.31 142.74 101.79 14.6 1,621
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:26:10 O 1,521 1,505.698 GBX

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18/9/202018:05PLUS500 - CFD trading systems24,289
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05/9/201818:57PLUS500 in FTSE250-

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Plus500 Daily Update: Plus500 Ltd is listed in the Software & Computer Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PLUS. The last closing price for Plus500 was 1,491.50p.
Plus500 Ltd has a 4 week average price of 1,428.50p and a 12 week average price of 1,155p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,572.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 650.80p.
There are currently 106,398,878 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 375,830 shares. The market capitalisation of Plus500 Ltd is £1,620,986,906.33.
rhatton: IG do have an IOS app just for info. One wonders if the share price will ever move up towards the £15-£16 area for a sustained time. US Election, brexit, second wave, lots to potentially cause market volatility coming up but whether the earnings that provide translates to a higher share price remains to be seen!
chucko1: Yes, Mr. Market has been failing on most counts regarding PLUS. But even the better analysts (probably some of the people contributing to this BB) have only a basic understanding of what I consider to be the key point - the extent to which market volatility leads to increased revenue. We can be confident that a higher VIX seems to associate strongly and positively with increased on-boarding, propensity to trade and level of deposit per customer. You can approximately [multiply] these three things to get to an idea of increasing level of revenue. BUT what actually does market volatility practically mean? We talk about the VIX, and that is a decent place to start. But that merely explains current heightened volatility and only pertaining to equities. The VIX is the estimate of volatility of the S&P over the next 30 calendar days. In fact, it’s rather more complicated than that, but the easier definition suffices for the purposes of this post. There are VIX futures - so we can also see what the market expects US equity volatility to be up to 9 months hence. This is useful as the share price of PLUS should be looking to the end of the year in aggregate. And then some. But PLUS is not just an equity trading platform - it is successful at quickly developing or marketing contracts in other things that become newsworthy such as Crypto and oil. The extent to which these things are all volatile at the same time is a big unknown - well, we know they are all volatile together today, but what about later this year, or next year or thereafter? We have to make an assumption, but I would make a pretty constructive assumption in that this volatility cuts across everything and will continue to do so. We can think of this as correlation of volatility, something I do not think the market trades. It trades correlation of equity indices and individual index and stock volatility especially, but not the instrument I refer to (just invented!). So all anyone can do is to make assumptions, but at least observe that this parameter is important. If that is correct, then it becomes especially useful to estimate what the level of equity volatility is likely to be as it will largely govern PLUS’s overall activity across all its contracts. We saw the VIX at 12-14% for most of 2019 with one or two upticks. In 2018, we saw the same level, but with one notable and longer lasting uptick. The thinking of the published analysts is that once the current crisis abates, we will head back to that sort of level. They know nothing. 12-14% on the ViX is the exception. Even if it has headed there for the last few years, let’s think about a longer timeframe. Equity baskets as offered to institutions were typically priced at around 22% volatility for most of the 1990s and 2000s with single stocks a few percent higher than this. These are the sorts of levels I believe are more likely to be with us over the coming years. So what is the elasticity of PLUS’s revenue to this elevated VIX? Cannot say as there has never been a sufficiently long period of elevated VIX in PLuS’s recent existence. And when it has been elevated, that short timeframe has been affected by other extraneous matters, so separating the various variables has been difficult. But we know that there is still a strong and positive correlation. I would argue there may be a sweet spot for volatility. Owners of PLUS want to see fizzing markets, but is the VIX at 80 really much use? Well yes, but I wonder if it’s better at 40 as 80 may frighten people away from trading. But at 12, no one gives a damn so there may be an optimum level. I would love to know what you all think on that. The remaining issue is whether natural volatility has decreased since the 1990s. Central banks do pay attention to the level of stocks in their policies nowadays, or at least the Fed does even if they don’t make it explicit - sometimes thought of as the Fed put. The other central banks do not do this, but for equities it’s the US which matters. If the price of PLUS is somewhat inelastic to the level of profits in 2020, and the analysts are looking through to 2021, I would argue they really lack the wherewithal to perform this analysis and that PLUS will consistently deliver more than they say with only moderate increases in the share price No matter, cash is cash and this will likely deliver handsomely whatever the timeframe, but I don’t see £20 or more until there’s a better understanding of it.
simplethesis: This is my response to the Lex piece...with apologies for length.. Lex’s piece of September 10 2018, written after a major founders’ share sale, was, with hindsight, absolutely correct. Since the middle of last year, however, founders and management have been very significant net buyers of this stock. Why? Alon Gonen was buying back in, now up to 5% of the company, way before volatility rose. Perhaps something more fundamental, more endogenous is going on? The logic of the piece seems to be that the last time the share price of this company went up a lot, it then went down a lot. We can probably do better than that. Dealing first with loss ratios; IG’s loss ratio and Plus500’s are identical at 76%. The platform provides best execution, just as does IG. The loss ratio is what it is because short-term trading, which is the choice of most of the clients, is a 50:50 win:lose activity. When you then factor in the spreads, you end up with more people losing than winning. “Unless markets remain volatile, its outperformance could prove shortlived.” suggests that Lex thinks expectations are up with events, and that the equity properly discounts the future. The company’s house broker just took up 2020 EPS expectations by 47%, one month into Q2. I would suggest that estimate upgrades trend for a reason. Over the rest of the year, Liberum’s estimates suggest average revenues per user in Q2 of $888, in Q3 $623 and in Q4 $501. The average quarterly number in the low volatility H2 2019 was $987. The revenues per user expected in Q3 this year are 37% below the H2 2019 level. In Q4 they are at half that level. I would suggest that would be a remarkable outturn. Why was the 28 April RNS necessary? It must have been because the company had already hit the previous Liberum $326m operating profit forecast for the full year, after less than four months. How likely is it, then, after such a rate of change, that this equity properly discounts the future? Revenue expectations started this year at $350m, and are now at $732m (Liberum), four months in, with customer acquisition in Q1 at almost four times the expected run-rate, continuing through April. Does Lex really think the quality of analysis being published on this $1.8bn company is that good? In the same note, expected Q2 new customers was taken from 32,000 to 70,000. The Q1 number was 82,951. A cursory glance at Google trends (see below) would suggest that most Q1 new customers arrived in March, and that Plus500 web traffic has remained at the March level through April. This is the same trend as your colleague Madison Darbyshire reported on 2 April “Surge in investment account openings on UK platforms”. These new customers are not the young, lower value crypto-trading clients of Q4 2017, but, to borrow the IG Group language, “informed, decisive, adventurous people”, more recently from higher-value geographies such as the UK and Germany, who want to trade with leverage, to take the risk, as adults, with their own money, at a time of great uncertainty. Have a look at @IGClientHelp and one sees just how relatively remarkable is the onboarding at this company, versus the older competitor. All that development of electronic customer verification and of payments systems is now paying off. As for the 2018 comparison, it has a couple of big flaws. In Q1 2018, as crypto crumbled, customers suffered great losses, pretty much the mirror image of their paper gains from Q4 ’17, while also generating a lot of spreads revenue. This was not widely understood at the time, because the company had not yet disaggregated their revenue number into the three theoretically separate strands. As a result, expectations for after Q1 were built on a $297m Q1 revenue number, while almost a third of that turned out to be customer P&L, and thus non-recurring in nature. The market’s understanding of this company should be much better now, since it now disaggregates revenue in its statements, meaning that we can see the Customer Income, i.e. the revenue ex customer P&L. Better still, the Liberum numbers for Q2 to Q4 have negative P&L in them, i.e. they arbitrarily forecast that the P&L gains of Q1 reverse over the course of the rest of the year. There is no logical basis to this – it’s pure gambler’s fallacy – but it makes the betting line on estimates even more attractive, in my opinion. I would suggest that the company is being prudent with their guidance. Turning to regulation in Australia, I assume Lex has relied on the the Liberum note for this information. There is indeed a consultation out from ASIC (CP 322) but all consultations have been deferred because of COVID-19. This was stated in a news release from ASIC on 23 March (see below). The Liberum note says that there is a full-year impact from this new regulation, but there is no such new regulation, yet. Expecting something like the proposal in the consultation to be in place some time in 2021 is another matter, and would seem perfectly reasonable to me. Lex mentions the Seychelles. IG Group just opened a subsidiary in Bermuda. It said on 19 March “During the period the Group opened a new client facing subsidiary in Bermuda, IG International. IG International is regulated by the Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA). IG's strong global brand has always attracted international clients from countries where the Group does not have a local presence. This investment means that the Group is better positioned to capture client demand and simplifies its arrangements with existing international clients. IG International will not offer products or services to residents of any EU country or residents of countries where IG has a regulated presence.” I would suggest that Plus500 is doing the same through its new licence in the Seychelles. The Liberum 2021 revenue number is $420m. If we assume that ASIC does lower leverage for retail traders early in the year, such that c. $30m revenues are lost to the company, then that means we can see the estimate as being $450m “pre ASIC”. The average customer income revenues in the low volatility H2 2019 were $104m per quarter, meaning ex P&L, which was anyway negligible, with an average quarterly active customer number of 105,000, so an ARPU of $982 per quarter. The company does not have 105,000 customers any more. In Q1 it had 194,024. On Liberum’s numbers, with 70k new customers this quarter, it will have 201k in Q2. Even with Liberum’s implicit assumption of a return to a quarterly new customer acquisition rate of 25k in Q3, then 23k in Q4, such as might occur if almost total tranquility returns to financial markets, Q4 actives will be some 180k. Hence the company starts 2021 with a customer base c. 40% bigger than it had at the start of 2020, while house broker revenue expectations are for c. 8% growth on the late 2019 run rate ($450m/ (4 x $104m)). Even the above, however, fails to grasp the real growth at this business. For IG, c. 10% of customers are 80% of revenues. For Plus500, 9% of customers are 91% of revenues. In each case, it’s about attracting and retaining the top clients who like to trade, a lot. In the early days Plus500 did not have the brand to win the quality customers. It could pay up to win an online auction, yes, but the conversion rate from that point through to a client depositing money and trading was too low for this to make the ROI that their marketing machine seeks. More recently, with a stronger brand, and a further-developed product offering, the company has been winning clients with higher lifetime values, as has been the stated intent since the company was founded, and taking share in Germany and the UK. Over time the company agglomerates more and more high-spending clients, who have higher longevity and lifetime values. Plus500 is the consistent share taker in this industry. Absent from Lex’s comments, and rather crucial, is that Plus500 has, since inception, offered negative balance protection to all its clients. ESMA’s new regulations of August 2018 brought this in for retail investors across Europe, but Plus500 offers negative balance protection even to its elective professional customers, at zero cost. If you are a high-value customer, why would you trade on another platform and run the risk of losing more than you deposit? Lex misstates the company’s dividend policy. It’s 60%. From the FY19 release “The Company's dividend policy is to return at least 60% of net profits to shareholders. This will be distributed through a combination of dividends and share buybacks, with at least 50% of this distribution being made by way of dividends.”. The company distributed 100% of 2019 net profits to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Lex gives the Canaccord-estimated yield for the first half of the year. It omits the full-year yield, which is 12.7% on Liberum forecasts, though the analyst suggests the payout may actually be higher. Lex says the company is trading at seven times expected earnings over the next 12 months. In so doing it omits that it is on 4.7x this year’s house broker number. I think it’s on 3x, and will pay out 30% of its current market cap. Lex also omits that Liberum sees the company with 22% of its market cap. in net cash at FY20 year end, and that the FY19 annual results statement included that the company was looking at “value-adding targeted acquisitions”. hxxps://
sif12: Sailing Johns already did a pretty comprehensive bit on numbers but Oil will stay volatile for a few months now and probably into Q3 at least. Theres also now a much wider recognition that without vaccines, removing complete knockdowns will only result in further waves. vaccines are still some months away- clinical trials id imagine at least 3 months. on that basis, i think general stock market will fall again maybe Q3. All of the above meaning PLUS will see a lot of volatility trading for most of the remainder of this year Lets say Rev for Q2 inline with Q1- which Is conservative. Q3 and Q4 half of Q1. That gets us to around $900m? Earning will be around $300m? so if sentiment holds up - (AND its a big IF- However good the numbers are here, if people are desperately selling PLuS will go down) I see share price moving past 2000 to 2500-3000 potentially? and then falling back again....But if they are targetting the high value customers, and increased retention 2021 Revs of $500m+ may allow the share price to maintain above 1500
josh 32: I think all things considered and relative to the all time highs of both igg and cmcx plus share price should be at least 10 pound 50 pence
18steven: Why I think buying into the Plus500 share price now adds up Paul Holmes | Tuesday, 25th June, 2019 | More on: PLUS The share price of Plus500 (LSE: PLUS) crashed in February, and the reasons were various. Increased regulation, accountancy errors admitted in its 2017 financial report, falling first quarter profits and clients winning their bets caused analysts to downgrade their targets and investors to flee. In my opinion the firm is over the worst, and its share price is now displaying evidence of bottoming out. My optimism also extends to the wider retail betting industry. Let me tell you why. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the European Securities and Marketing Association (ESMA), recently clamped down on retail trading brokers and spread-betting firms. After a period of investigation, the ESMA placed strict limits on the leverage clients can use to place their market bets. The rules came into place from July 2018. Many brokers have folded since, both in the UK and wider Europe, after many of their clients stopped placing financial bets. But like all other sectors, the fittest survive. Plus500 is fit and has the right strategy in place to ensure it survives and thrives. Why the fundamentals and technicals are a plus for Plus500 In my opinion, the various shocks that caused February’s severe sell-off are now priced in. Since collapsing from a 52-week high of 2,076p, the share price has traded in a narrow range for several weeks. Evidence of this range is illustrated by price currently trading close to the 50-day simple moving average. This simplified technical indicator suggests the market sees no reason to downgrade the firm’s value further, after closer analysis of the fundamental data. So let’s move onto those fundamentals. At the time of writing, Plus500 traded at 600p. With a market capitalisation of £660m, the heady days of being valued unrealistically at over £2bn are long gone. The firm has zero borrowings and liabilities of $51.90m. The firm’s P/E ratio is now 5.27 and the last pre-tax profits up to December 2018, came in at $503m on revenue of $720.4m. Rewind back to the 2014 revenue figure of $228.86m and pre-tax profits of $138.12, and it’s clear to see the improvement the firm has recorded since its July 2013 flotation. Despite its customer growth finding reverse gear, falling by -4% during 2018, a snapshot of current activity highlights the current performance. According to the firm’s latest key performance indicators for the first quarter of 2019, the current active client number is hovering at 100,000, where it’s remained since the second quarter of 2018. The new client acquisition number comes in at 20,000 during the same period. One reason I remain bullish about retail trading and the spread betting sector in general is due to my conviction that the industry has created new foundations from which to grow, after the huge shake-up which the FCA and the ESMA caused. In an excellent commentary a month back, fellow Fool Paul Summers also highlighted a reason why the share price of Plus500 might recover: Bitcoin is now up approximately 150% year to date, which can only benefit brokers such as Plus500, who allow their clients to trade crypto-coins.
bulltradept: "So traders and gamblers making more from Plus share price this morning - quick profits for some - vs large losses for investors." Meh, all big boys now, investors can take it if they've practiced proper position sizing as in portfolio mgt. Otherwise and to quote. "A fool and their money are lucky enough to get together in the first place."
fenners66: So traders and gamblers making more from Plus share price this morning - quick profits for some - vs large losses for investors.
barryharmer: Somebody buying Plus500 exactly a year ago at closing price would have made a 56% gain on their investment, as well as receiving 21% of their original investment as dividends, if they claimed back the 10% withholding tax. Plus500 28/12/17 closed 889 Plus500 28/12/17 closed 1392 Year gain = 889/1392 = 1.56 = 56% Gain Dividends paid = 137.86 +81.29+63.5 = 240.2525 US cents – deduct 15% and convert to £UK gives you approx. 189 UK pence 189/889 = 21% dividend. The unfortunate few who bought near the peak of £20+ are feeling a bit sorry for themselves, but with another bumper dividend predicted to be announced Feb 12th, and a strong hint that the business is running with strong growth and not affected as much as its competitors by the new ESMA regulations introduced in August, we should see the share price zoom back up into the £20+ range, if not hit and eventually exceed the £28 predicted by Liberum Capital (the house broker). Soon the shorters should realise that the founders are selling because they have more exciting new companies to help to market that will give them more satisfaction, kudos and huge gains, that would dwarf the gains that would be possible with Plus500, even if Plus500 hit £50 per share. They have been selling regularly since the IPO, and even the last sale at £13.90 produced a huge profit for the founder (who no longer is a director) and was happy to sell out at £4 per share back in March 2015. Since those days the senior management has been strengthened by the inclusion of directors with a strong regulatory background, and the company has been very careful to comply with best practice for the industry. Some of the new rules introduced by ESMA such as negative balance protection and the ban on binary options did not affect Plus500 as they were already compliant from the start of the business. The other concern with Plus500 voiced by some commentators (in league with the shorters?) is the sustainability of the growth of the business. They have a warning “80.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.” and IG has this warning “79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider.” – Plus has 1.6% more retail investors losing money with them than IG. I could not find a figure for the percentage of retail customers who lose money on Bet365 website, but an educated guess is that it is getting close to 100%, but nobody expects the company to contract in the near future as gambling is a growth pastime, and the losers either find more money, or new gamblers take their place. The reason that the gamblers are attracted to Plus500 is the mixture of innovative internet marketing and the “user friendly” proprietary user interface that is available across most mobile platforms and available in 32 languages. I also predict an extra-ordinary increase in customers and volume of trades via the Australian subsidiary when the year end results are published… this is because you can choose which subsidiary site to use, and if you don’t like the restrictions that ESMA has introduced, just open an Australian account and continue as normal. If you compare all the metrics of Plus500 with its major competitors IG and CMC, you will see a huge difference in the figures. Plus500 is far more efficient business, producing greater profits with lower costs. It also is very investor friendly with its dividend pay-outs, guaranteed 60% of profits after tax, and then most years a special dividend to push the pay-out last year to very close to 100% of profits. This year Plus500 moved from AIM to a full listing, entering the FTSE 250, if it was not a reputable company, complying with all the required regulations, it would not have been accepted. In my opinion there is no reason why the company’s growth, profitability and dividend pay-outs should not continue into the future. Myself, my family and friends have had significant holdings in Plus500, I started building mine in October 2013 @ 181 pence, and have no regrets. May the share price soon reflect the true value soon.
chucko1: OK, this is interesting. So the bulls are of the belief that enhanced volatility will lead to the level of profits that will take PLUS somewhat higher. I agree that volatility is THE key component, but followed by their increasing success in international roll-out. Multiply the two factors together and you will not be far off (barring “the big thingy”). So what of volatility? The VIX is often cited and it has moved somewhat higher since early October and has remained there (increased further, in fact). But there are also a series of VIX futures with contracts extending out to July 2019. What is notable is that the front VIX contract (Nov18) is 20.36 (and is what is commonly referred to as the VIX), but the later contracts only fall to 19.05 (in the case of the JUL19 contract). This quite gentle shape suggests that “the market” believes that volatility will remain relatively elevated well beyond Q4. Maybe, maybe not, but in theory, PLUS could actually hedge their higher earnings in part by selling VIX futures contracts! Or you individually could hedge the PLUS share price! (shame to say you would have to have a pretty big position as just one contract has a sensitivity of $1,000 per 1% volatility change (arithmetic change, not geometric). I’ve got a better idea - I just checked on the PLUS500 web site and you can trade the VIX on there! Full service on this board, I tell you. Worth pointing out that as the Dow has rallied some 350 points, the VIX has just fallen from 21.3 to 20.2. This negative correlation is persistent. What this means is that owners of PLUS really do not want to see any meaningful recovery in equities, and so as previously stated PLUS is a wonderful diversifier if sized correctly.
Plus500 share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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