Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Plus500 Ltd LSE:PLUS London Ordinary Share IL0011284465 ORD ILS0.01 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -15.50 -1.11% 1,376.00 187,444 16:29:57
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,375.50 1,376.50 1,395.00 1,369.50 1,395.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services 638.16 382.75 344.50 4.1 1,399
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:28:29 O 988 1,376.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
16/6/202118:53PLUS. Let's talk about the company439
16/5/202122:37Ways to get Plusone Coins23
28/2/202119:34Plus TRADES thread.12
01/12/202018:06PLUS500 - CFD trading systems24,495
30/8/201916:42MINUS 500-

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Plus500 (PLUS) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2021-06-23 17:29:431,376.0098813,594.88O
2021-06-23 17:29:421,376.003,15843,454.08O
2021-06-23 17:28:551,378.1122303.18O
2021-06-23 16:31:541,375.651,82225,064.25O
2021-06-23 16:27:181,376.913034,172.03O
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Plus500 (PLUS) Top Chat Posts

Plus500 Daily Update: Plus500 Ltd is listed in the Software & Computer Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PLUS. The last closing price for Plus500 was 1,391.50p.
Plus500 Ltd has a 4 week average price of 1,363p and a 12 week average price of 1,363p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,659.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1,155p.
There are currently 101,639,785 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 364,536 shares. The market capitalisation of Plus500 Ltd is £1,398,563,441.60.
grahamg8: Agree JamesSmith, Cunningham is a minnow, minimal downside. The opportunities are huge. As growth in the PLUS established markets tapers the USA will become an important part of the business in 2-5 years. I will be watching for the ARPU and AUAC numbers in a few months time to see just how valuable this deal might be for the share price.
dumbbunny: dennislevine16, exactly. If there’s enduring value in previous cohorts and customer trading performance nets to zero in the medium term, why is it that after five quarters of $200m+ of revenues (CI), with combined new customer cohorts over this 15 month period that are greater than 2016, 2018 and 2019 cohorts combined, revenues are forecast to fall for the rest of the year to be below the quarterly revenue rate of 2019, at c. $90m per quarter and, the outer years have hardly moved? There is a pattern of pinning the outer years as low as possible, for as long as possible, until the remuneration packages for senior management have been fixed. chucko1, like you, I have no issue with people earning obscene amounts of money (good on them), however, I do have a problem if it is to the detriment of shareholders. We have a share price that has derated by nearly 50% over eights years. This surely has not been helped by the pinning down of the outer years and guidance that is often illogical and all over the place. This makes the quality of earnings look poor, unstable and barely growing. It’s a recipe for a low multiple and that’s exactly what we have. Far better to guide based on cohort historical statistical outcomes and zero customer performance.
dennislevine: hxxps:// Updated today. Obvious question is why spend hundreds of millions of $ on marketing investment, where sophisticated calculations are made on probable revenue returns, if you end up with no growth going forward in next few years. Would not appear to make any business sense at all. Contrast that with the etoro projections from marketing investment where a growth profile is clearly evident. Similar business to Plus. hxxps:// EPS forcasts step down for Plus in 2022 and 2023. Seems odd at first glance. This all stems from recent Liberum (house broker) note on 4 March, the sole purpose of which was to bring down 2022 EPS forecasts by (artificially) reversing the preferential tax rate assumption. Handy timing just ahead of setting of parameters for senior management LTIPs etc which are driven off projected EPS.
riverman77: RHatton - That was near end of year so they probably knew they wouldn't be able to make back the customer losses they had incurred. This time, we still have 9 months of year left so can't see that being the case this time. They do seem to be overly conservative though, almost as if they want the share price to fall (I guess good if they're doing buybacks).
jamessmith23: I think it's partly due to the volatility as they used to not hedge customer positions which improved overall profitability long term but made it more volatile. IG is a wider service provider so think it is showing a premium for that, and CMCX is the new hot CFD provider which is growing so people are extrapolating that into the future.Plus is also an Israeli based company and people tend to apply a small discount for that.Realistically I don't see these things as problems, and new regs will affect all providers so shouldn't make a difference there. Plus are looking at diversifying into other services which I think is why they haven't paid out as much cash in divis recently, if this works the PE ratio and investor perception should improve. Also the Israeli point has saved a fair bit in taxes so I'm not complaining.Right now Plus is viewed as a value play and the others are not, I'm happy to hold as huge amounts of cash are generated each year in the hope it will be rerated at some point in line with competitors. There is always the risk of regulation causing huge issues to share price as it has done previously, but long run it has returned to similar share price levels and more profits. All imo.
chess123: IGG Trading update tomorrow, there share price is up 22p today, probably going to be great TU , which will hopefully push up Plus. Back above 1400p
simplethesis: Groan. The CG price target came from a 29 September note in which Mr Bates reckoned the business would do $526m revenues and 185p EPS in 2021 and $406mm revenues and 115p in 2022. He put a 5% discount on a long-run 8.7x multiple to value Plus500 at 8.3x that 115p. By valuing the company on FY22 "normal" EPS he was explicitly ignoring the profits earned before that time. He had $148m PAT in FY22. He had Plus500 earning $272m PAT in FY21 and $529m in FY20. So that's $124m of "supernormal" profits in FY21 and $381m in FY20. They add up to $505m. At a 958p price target with 105m shares and then a 1.286 FX rate at the time, that's a $1295m valuation of the company. The $505m of "supernormal" profit which he implicitly discards is 39% of his target price. That seems not great. High churn was part of his reasoning. He estimated 45% churn in 2020, then 60% in 2021. The 2020 churn rate ended up being 30%. Somehow the CGF target price is unchanged. Curious. He estimated 100k new clients in 2021. Let's see how Q1 pans out. In the same report he values CMC at a 5% premium to IGG's 14.3x historical average 1y forward multiple. He uses CY22, but has CMC's March '22 and March '23 profits at the same level, because he believes it can recycle profits to create growth. This reminds me of another company. The essence is that CGF has CMC's FY to March '23 profits at 45% of the level of FY21, while it has Plus500's 2022 profits at 34% of 2020. As ever, this is driven by an annual customer churn assumption. What he misses, despite having been the company's broker for years, is that all customers are not equal. The customers in any cohort who stop trading first are the ones with the shallower pockets. Yes, Plus500's customer churn is high compared to peers, but it has a huge number of lowish value customers from whom it makes good returns, having as it does a low cost online process and support function, and then it has 9% of customers who are > 90% of the revenues. As a result you would expect high churn in terms of customer numbers, but this has little bearing on the decay rate of a cohort's revenues. Nowhere does he understand that the c. 300k new customers in 2020, the result in great part of $221m of marketing spend, will have lasting value. The company gave us cohort revenue data in August and again just now. It looks like the 2020 new customers only generated, at a maximum, $170m revenue in the year. They will generate that sort of number again this year, i.e. a lower run-rate but in 2020 they were on average only there for a little more than half of the year. Look at the 'High return on Marketing Investment" slide and you will see that that sort of year two revenue return on marketing spend is typical. As for current expectations, the company did $382m of customer income in 2019, with only 77k customers carried from 2018 into Q1 2019. 2019 had really low volatility. This year it will start with c. 165k customers carried from 2020. It is expected to do $430m revenues after what I estimate to be a $22m hit from lower leverage in Australia, so $452m before that. Is it realistic that you spend $221m on marketing to drive so little growth over the low-vol 2019 level? Exceptionally improbable. I have 2021 customer income of $690m, revenue of $590m. 55k new customers Q1, then a low 24k assumed in subsequent quarters. A low $980 quarterly ARPU is assumed, then lowered by ASIC measures. At 1408p the stock is on 6.3x my this year forecast of 223p. Consensus is at 144p. It seems conservative to expect the company to trade to 10x, with these returns. If the stockbroking product and other non-trading product are well-received, and the moderate external hedging is understood to be reducing quarterly revenue volatility, then the multiple will be higher. Of those 10 million downloaders of the app from the Google store, perhaps some, who do not want to trade with leverage right now, might be customers in another way?
hatfullofsky: Wow - no commentary from the board, shows the interest levels an partial reason behind the depressed share price I would expect this to be greeted well in the market but normally PLUS dives on results...... MCAP £1421 / share price 1379 PBT $523m EBITDA up 168% to $515.9m Cash balances to $593.9m ($83m divi +$25 buy back to come) Implementation of targeted hedging in FY 2021 to reduce market risk, as appropriate strategy to access future growth, through organic investment and targeted M&A: Final Divi 54c / Special Divi 28c Platform usage remains elevated in FY 2021 to date Further outperformance of Customer Income and across key operating metrics Offset by continued heightened movements in Customer Trading Performance
olig1: Simplethesis, I'm not sure what your point is either. He doesn't have inside information is my point. His actions seem perfectly understandable to me. He increased his stake in March when the market went crazy and the price of Plus dropped. I did the same as it was clear what a bargain Plus was at this point. Following an almost double of the price he sold about half of what he bought in March but retains over 80% of his shareholding. To me this is a rebalancing of a portfolio not a vote against Plus. Again I have done the same. If he has special knowledge about Plus and doesn't believe its prospects are great he would be mad to have sold less than 20% of his holding.
oi_oi_savaloy: Simplethesis - thank you for your excellent response; I don't doubt that the numbers Plus are going to deliver are in excess (probably way in excess of) their written rns but I've been caught out before (buying Plus and then seeing the share price tank, rather like my disco dancing did at a rave in '89......) and just need the reassurance that this Board has considered all sides of the argument. I seem to remember we've been caught out by PNL going the wrong way for Plus before (last year?). As crazy as Djokivic1 has explained it (really, really hard for PNL to go against us) there's still that possibility of Plus being on the wrong side of that (and that's possible right?)
Plus500 share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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