Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[sb888] 10/9/2018 08:59

say what you like. If you are so clever why have you watched as the share price falls 25%? You have no credibility so best to keep quiet sunshine

[fenners66] 10/9/2018 08:48

as I said before, for someone who claims to have inside knowledge of why this should be shorted - for years - the surprise is that they shorted only from £14.90 instead of over £20.... story loses credibility

[hussyo] 10/9/2018 08:45

Let's not take shorters as some sort of oracles. Some of them were short early in the year too, when the share price was on a tear.

[sb888] 10/9/2018 08:14

sessa increasing their short

[costax1654x] 10/9/2018 08:12

I think that my target of 1200 could be hit

[sb888] 10/9/2018 06:25

hussyo

NO, it has always had a low PE and high yield, because there is a massive amount of distrust about the company not about the earnings capability, if the suspicion is correct, there will be no problem with that

[podgyted] 09/9/2018 18:59

One of my favourite sayings is "There are many reasons to sell but only one to buy".

I don't know why the founders took this moment to sell, I can probably take a very good stab at why Playtech sold (nothing to do with Plus) BUT 15% was bought! {You could make a very good argument that this significantly derisks Plus}.

So the II that bought thought it was a good deal - this is far more informative than the sellers motives.

[hussyo] 09/9/2018 18:05

sb888.. when you say no one trusts Plus, I think what you mean is no one can imagine them continuing to grow at the rate they have been. There is an almost 'too good to be true' story around this company, but let's not imply there is anything untoward.

The company did the right thing in under-promising for the remainder of the year, leaving them very little to do on the EPS side.

Singapore is up and running and it will be interesting to see their contribution to the business in the next update.

[sb888] 09/9/2018 13:58

i presume that is what my troll said? rackers aka rees4....he spends his time all week day and night posting after me yet every sane person has him filtered. He gets so upset because he lost everything on TERN and wants to blame everyone but himself. That is what these corbynites do, they live in a fantasy world.

[owencoffin] 09/9/2018 13:51

'Spends all his weekends on here abusing.'

oops.

if this share price depends on the wild swings of crypto currencies ,then what should we take from that. would make me nervous.

[plasybryn] 09/9/2018 10:37

Out of interest financethoughts, are you a qualified analyst or Accountant please?

[nurdin] 08/9/2018 22:11

Excellent posts financethoughts.Cant check your figures but I have no reason to doubt

[plasybryn] 08/9/2018 22:09

Great stuff finance thoughts. Kind of you to share your analysis.

[stuffee] 08/9/2018 21:47

Most interesting analysis FinanceThoughts for which many thanks. I wish CS, who screwed up placing of Playtech’s 8% holdinga few days ago, had employed your analysis.

[financethoughts] 08/9/2018 20:57

I should add, I screen for high ROCE, high FCF shares, and to ensure I'm not overpaying for that FCF, I screen for PriceFCF as a ratio. PLUS has a ROCE of 150% and a PFCF of 5.72. No other share in the UK matches that, not even if you dilute that criteria to a ROCE of 100% and a PFCF of 10. Although not a guarantee, high ROCE, high FCF and low Price to FCF have proven to outperform the market. If you have any questions, please ask. If you think there are negatives for PLUS I've not considered, please comment.

[financethoughts] 08/9/2018 20:48

Warning - sorry for a long post. Hi, have been running through the last 6years worth of accounts for Plus500, and running various valuations (particularly Discounted Cash Flow), in an attempt to calculate a reasonable share price. This is partly due to the recent dip, but also because I have built a reasonable shareholding since seeing how well this compared against various price factors, free cash flow price ratios, screens etc. I've read all relevant RNS's and the slides post the interims. I believe the ESMA rules will make only a small impact for a few trading periods, at most. However, I do believe Q1 was particularly strong (as reported) therefore have chosen to ignore TTM figures as would prefer to be conservative in my calcs. Instead, I've used 2016-2017 growth and applied this to 2017 figures, thereby excluding the Q1 exception. 2016-2017 growth % was not an outlier figure over the last 6 years so seems reasonable. Anyway, having then plotted into the DCF calculator, I get a figure of £54 ps - 264% undervalued. This takes $356m FCF, which is 2017 FCF + 70%. And then assumes 18% growth for 4years, 10% for the next 4yrs, and then a steady (terminal) 3% growth. Having compared my estimates to that of the consensus broker estimates, I realised I was only about 3% out for Net Profit and EPS, so not bad. If I use these figures and try to match Liberum capitals £28 share estimate, I have to use a growth rate of +3.5%, which is ludicrously small for a company with a ROCE of 100% and a cashflow growth of around 60% over the last 5 years. Long story short - even with a reduction for ESMA, and complete removal of the H1 results, this is seriously undervalued. A more realistic value, even using conservative figures for growth, would appear to be around £50 per share.

[sb888] 08/9/2018 16:25

I dont recall, i think it was after it went ex,

[mutantcar] 08/9/2018 16:23

Does that mean you'll have to pay the dividend from August?

[rackers1] 08/9/2018 10:35

No you didn't liar. U declared u were short when the price was at £14.60

[sb888] 08/9/2018 08:29

initially is was just over 14.99 now, its 15.23 average, or there abouts. I posted when i traded

[hussyo] 08/9/2018 07:50

As PIs we just don't have all the facts to draw a picture of a company between updates.

*What impact is ESMA currently having? Don't know.

*Has crypto trading fallen off a cliff? Probably.

What we have to look for are indirect signs.

*20+million shares sold at absurdly high levels to those who are the opposite of us: in the know.

*Odey, and we know Crispin Odey is intimately close with Plus500 not to mention Playtech, has recently upped its stake to over 10%.

*We are almost certain to have RNSs next week detailing new holdings of IIs, and this surely will be positive for the stock.