Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[villarich] 12/9/2018 13:19

For someone who knows there are bad things lurking at PLUS, haven't you closed that short a little early?

[financethoughts] 12/9/2018 13:18

This certainly appears to be an absurdly cheap share, on just about any metric measure. No debt. Growing revenue, growing profits, and an incredible cash conversation ratio. There are regulatory risks which are well defined in the (very detailed) PLUS Prospectus, which I've been reading this morning (now on pg74 of nearly 200 pages!) but these regulatory risks apply across all its competitors too. However, the application of these restrictions affects Plus differently to, say, IGG, as its sole customer base is retail with no institutional clients. Plus are expecting to invite up to 12% of their EEA customers to become professional status, with 5% converted by June 2018. The 12% represent around 75% of EEA revenues, so in the next trading update expected around late September, I'll be looking to see if they comment on this conversion progress. Revenue growth for PLUS is likely to be split in different ways for its different geographical markets - with revenue growth in existing markets being driven by growing customer numbers, but a relatively stable revenue per user (ARPU) due to heightened competition on spreads. Revenue growth in new markets will be primarily driven by rising average rev per user (ARPU) - ref. pg 52 of prospectus. The last trading update in August showed the growth of revenue from non-EEA areas growing, which will reduce this geographical risk, and lessen the ESMA impact. Cryptocurrency trading represented less than 15% of revenue in yr ending Dec 2017, and the ESMA rules restrict the leverage on these products, so, along with less 'buzz' around crypto, will impact revenue to some degree. Having said all this, the average daily revenue generated by PLUS has increased significantly in recent years as customer numbers have grown, with £0.9m in yr to Dec 2017 - I'd expect this to be at least £1.22m daily average through 2018 as I'm predicting yr end Rev conservatively of £450m (they've already booked £360m at the interim point. Assuming they do this (they'd have to pretty much shut up shop now for the rest of the trading year to not beat this..) then they will have at least £270m free cash flow to either buy back shares or pay out in the form of dividends. Despite the recent founder share sales, Playtech offloading, and effects of ESMA and crypto, this share seems to have plenty of comfort in these numbers. I have recently increased my holding, and would look to increase further if there is any further share price weakness. Looking forward to a very revealing Q3 update around late October.

[rackers1] 12/9/2018 13:12

Sees 150 points against him to make 100Moron

[sb888] 12/9/2018 13:04

Ok im out. Took just over 101 points out of it. Another profitable short in PLUS

I think it could go lower, but will probably have a little bounce

[piwood] 12/9/2018 12:55

got £10 written all over it ? buy buy buy

[nurdin] 12/9/2018 11:26

Looking absurdly cheap here

[bulltradept] 12/9/2018 11:16

"got £10 written all over it!"

Well that's useful, someone just seen a gap?

Not all gaps are filled so not sure you can say that given where it currently is.

[sb888] 12/9/2018 10:54

dam it, I missed that, i want 10.22 after costs to make a clear 100 points.

[hussyo] 12/9/2018 10:49

Hat.. 'tin hat on'..:) not heard that saying in a while.

[technovator] 12/9/2018 10:40

got £10 written all over it!

[hatfullofsky] 12/9/2018 10:39

Tin hat on ! But buyers seem to be coming back on L2

[tsmith2] 12/9/2018 10:35

really support at around £10:30

[hussyo] 12/9/2018 10:34

This is turning into a rout that is not going to stop until there's a trading update, and if that update is anything other than stellar it'll be sub £10 in the blink of an eye.

[davebdavid] 12/9/2018 10:33

One thing is for sure, if we get a positive trading update there is fantastic value in this stock.

[tsmith2] 12/9/2018 10:33

If £14 goes you are looking at £12 on charts?note playtech and founders have sold, the latter to meet "institutional demand"

[costax1654x] 12/9/2018 09:04

Sbtx is starting Guys

[chucko1] 12/9/2018 01:09

Hussyo, it is actually a matter of fact that, although Odey were very much against the Playtech bid at 400p, it was in fact the regulator who disallowed the deal on the basis of the standing of Playtech. This is why I described the outcome as “luck”.

Odey may occasionally sell some shares, but that is a technical issue - they remain as bullish as ever, it seems. Hanbury remains at his limit in each of his funds.

[nod] 12/9/2018 00:16

hussyo, I think the damage is caused by the founders selling 8% rather than Playtech selling. Founders selling large amounts usually causes anxiety and a dip in share price

[hussyo] 11/9/2018 21:34

Hat.. I'm with you. Last week we had 4 sessions of green in a row, before the playtech news + confusion about exactly how many shares founders had sold.

For me the keys are...* Odey's stake is more or less where it was in Jan - they've been with the business for a long while, and were, if I recall, instrumental in collapsing the Playtech deal in 2014. If Odey sell up then I'd run for the hills. * Singapore is up and running and contributing to Q3. * The company have underpromised in a massive way on H2.

That's my bull narrative... Maybe sb will take this opportunity to make a proper bear case...

[noujay] 11/9/2018 19:10

I agree. See what happens but the downward pressure here won't last IMO

[sb888] 11/9/2018 19:00

I only give back what i get

Hatfull Do not make the mistake of comparing to IGG, there is no comparison. I think you should be careful but its up to you

[hatfullofsky] 11/9/2018 18:52

hussyo - I see the fall as a buying opportunity. We're 25% off our high with record results. IGG nowhere near as punished. Founders selling down is not a big deal, they have been doing so all the way up. PTEC need to refinance debt for the Saitech deal. ESMA clouds lurking. A perfect opportunity to drive the price down on no news. Be greedy when others are fearful