Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[davebdavid] 11/9/2018 14:17

Believe what you want. I was out 18.52 bought back in this afternoon at 14.75 now deciding what to do. May have a break and see what happens. I don't go quiet unlike you that disappeared throughout the rise and came back in at the drop. The very little experience I have has served me well this time although I did make an error at the start of the drop.
Enjoy your little drop.

[sb888] 11/9/2018 14:11

yeah of course you did,,,,,,,now you say

[davebdavid] 11/9/2018 14:10

I got out at 1850 muppet and for a beginner I'm very happy

[sb888] 11/9/2018 14:03

..and you endured a big slide, muppet

Whilst i think it will fall further, im happy to take 100 points out of it

[davebdavid] 11/9/2018 14:02

He can only be smug if it drops to around 5. After all he missed the big rise!

[sb888] 11/9/2018 13:56

Me??? Smug?? How dare you! lol

[hussyo] 11/9/2018 13:55

All those who are long, I would suggest you take a break and go do something else. sb888.. you can sit tight and be smug at your P&L.. for now.

[costax1654x] 11/9/2018 13:17

1200 on the cards!

[owencoffin] 11/9/2018 13:17

'Hong Kong stocks tip into bear market as gambling shares crumble '

[sb888] 11/9/2018 12:53

Sounds like there may be a few more shorters to join me!

[brucie5] 11/9/2018 12:42

bulltradept,

'What else has changed?'

I don't know. I imagine most of the shorts have a target price to buy back in, and are using whatever uncertainty there currently is to lever the share price down to better get in price. You're right about the 200sma, it could fall to 13.70 and still be in ascending pattern there.

I will continue to watch closely.

[bulltradept] 11/9/2018 12:36

Hi Brucie,

"So I'd like a considerable margin of safety before I get involved. And that would entail seeing how far it can be taken down once it breaks the 200sma."

You certainly are on the bearish bent there! With that said though with the 200sma being @ 13.70 ish then yes 30% lower than that would be nice, but if it got there, what else has changed for the market to take it there?

A crash, a miss on numbers, a newer entrant in the market, fewer punters ?

I use charts most of the time as well, but there are on occasions times when the fundamentals do take a price beyond and below.

[gorilla36] 11/9/2018 12:36

Excellent post chucko1 ! Well thought through analysis, unlike some of the rubbish we are subjected to on this board. Please keep it up and others as well. Can we all simply agree not to reply to/bait and or filter the two people who contribute nothing here. I continue to hold from about £5.

[brucie5] 11/9/2018 12:34

ultimate, yes but:


It may get a lot cheaper.

[ultimate1] 11/9/2018 12:22

Forget your charts lads! This share is either cheap or it’s not! No chart is going to tell you that. If you want to read some sense read what Chucko has to say and throw those charts in the bin!

[brucie5] 11/9/2018 12:00

bulltradept,

Yes. I have missed this share on the way up, and can see it has been an extraordinary ride for many. And from a simple dividend perspective, it still is an absolute bargain - on the face of it. But for me charts alert us to what is not sufficiently known, and there's something that the shorters seem intent to make known.


So I'd like a considerable margin of safety before I get involved. And that would entail seeing how far it can be taken down once it breaks the 200sma.


But I may not get that chance.

[bulltradept] 11/9/2018 11:55

"Call me a chartist fool, but I simply don't like the way it's sitting beneath the 1500p threshold, and has failed, despite the above, to recapture its mojo. Any fall from here below the 200 would surely have 1000 in its sights, at which level it might become very compelling. Perhaps those wretched shorters see the same thing?"

I do hear what you say. Perhaps you see better value at a lower price regarding risk v reward? That's what might be swaying you to view it that way, but I would like to see it get above £16.00 and climb away in the coming months.

[noujay] 11/9/2018 11:31

With regards to the founders it seems to me that in essence they are engineers and whilst money is always a core motivator for anybody starting a company, their bent is toward technical achievement and thus it is often the case that people such as this are less motivated by every dollar but rather by the quality of and execution thereafter of their creation, i.e. the prices that they sold and attendant motivations for selling are not necessarily linked to their view of future performance. Or at the very least they are not in lock step with it.Not to say they are not interested in the money, but I don't see it as black and white either on that score.

[sogoesit] 11/9/2018 11:28

Excellent post chucko, especially the tone about luck and foresight.
(Good comment on TSLA. "Fashions" and irrational economic investments should always be shorted imv. Renewable energy is another classic example.)

[brucie5] 11/9/2018 11:28

Well my finger's poised on the buy button, as that 12% dividend, if sustainable has got to be an outer, and it's sitting almost directly on the 200sma, and seems to be very highly ranked by those folks at Stockopedia.

So why don't I?


Call me a chartist fool, but I simply don't like the way it's sitting beneath the 1500p threshold, and has failed, despite the above, to recapture its mojo. Any fall from here below the 200 would surely have 1000 in its sights, at which level it might become very compelling. Perhaps those wretched shorters see the same thing?

[sb888] 11/9/2018 11:26

Some up and downs, but up another 1% overall on the shorts, was 5.16% yesterday

[chucko1] 11/9/2018 11:21

June 18, 2015. In the FT, Plus500 is described as a “troubled company”. Odey has a 19% stake at that time, Playtech has bid 400p and financed the purchase via their own share placing. At that time, Plus500’s management owned 36% of the shares (now 8%, as we all know) and recommended the deal. Odey rejects the deal calling it “materially undervalued”, but only luck prevented it occurring.

This is saying a lot, when we now look back. At that time, the owners were happy with 400p, irrespective of the fundamental value of the company. They had little idea of its true value and prospects, and today, nothing has changed. They don’t run the company and simply want out so that they can pursue other things. Forget about them and their reasons - it’s the current management and the various share incentives that they have that one should be focusing on.

It’s also worth reminding ourselves of the reason for the troubles in 2015, and that is simply that the KYC/AML checks that Plus500 had done were illegible owing to some minor technological issue. But they HAD done all the correct checks and once I had discovered all this, it made me wonder what on earth all the fuss was about and I, like Odey, really wanted the takeover to fail. 400p was simply opportunistic by Sagi and he had more than 50% of Plus’s votes in the bag - what did they know? Not enough to make a reasoned investment decision, it would seem - overtaken by fear.

But look on the bright side, Plus 500 is the perennial hated child so for those with a bullish slant on this, it’s always on sale.

Considering the issue of various funds going short of Plus500, there are now 8 of them totalling about 7%. Performance of long/short hedge funds the past two or three years has been hopeless. Pretty close to zero return so basically random. They will get some right and some wrong, but I really would read very little into it. In fact, it seems to have been the short positions that have caused them problems rather than bad longs. That said, some of the shorts have done very well (Carillion), but then you get some wrong like Ocado and Amazon etc. which severely punishes you. Is Plus in that category, I wonder? (I don’t really put TSLA in that category as it isn’t a share - it’s a cult).

[hussyo] 11/9/2018 10:06

fenners... that gave me a chuckle. It's the thing with the 'Oracular' funds who short, the assumption being they know something. Some were short from May, and I hate to have seen their P&L in the first week of August.

[rackers1] 11/9/2018 10:03

ExactlyPig filth sb888conveniently forgets those facts.