Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[ultimate1] 25/5/2023 05:58

How we pine for the good old days of big dividends and not buying back the stock at 1900. A colossal mistake

[blueclyde] 24/5/2023 15:58

Who knows. Things have go so bad in the UK market that the likes of Centrica and L&G are in like a PE of 5. Most of the banks not much more. May be nothing sinister, who knows.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 24/5/2023 13:46

If past behaviour is anything to go by..........they wont be releasing an appeasing RNS. It'll be the shocker (news) if anything. But I might be wrong - perhaps they've turned a new leaf.............doubt it mind.

[whitelotus40] 24/5/2023 13:20

I agree it feels like it is regulation or litigation. I would be disappointed if they had exposed themselves to litigation. Their compliance costs/ director fees etc and the fuss they make over being responsible corporate citizens would make them very hypocritical and negligent if this was the case.
The selling has been brutal.
at what stage should the company make an announcement to appease our concerns that there is nothing sinister going on?
i can live with other investors having a different view re valuation but feels like someone is getting out at seemlnlgy any price ??

[salpara111] 24/5/2023 12:11

I've been watching this for a while looking for an entry point, I almost pushed the button at £15.
The stock is technically oversold but continues to drop despite the buybacks.
Reluctantly I have to agree with some of the posters that there is something going on in the background that is not public knowledge, if it is material and specific to Plus then they have a legal obligation to release an RNS which makes me wonder if it comes down to a nervousness that the sector as a whole is going to be subject to some negative regulation.

[beergut] 24/5/2023 11:11

Is there any litigation we don't know about?

[chucko1] 24/5/2023 11:07

What we need is some expert commentary!!

Not followed it in a while apart from buying a few. Still very much Hanbury's top pick, and also resides in Odey's own fund, even though he once much frowned upon it.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 24/5/2023 11:02

Someone knows something we don't. It's the only logical conclusion after all other avenues have been exhausted. imo.

[blueclyde] 24/5/2023 10:56

I do not know how this is possible when 40,000 shares are being bought back a day.

[aleman] 24/5/2023 08:55

Cash £800m and rising. Market cap £1297m. Bonkers.

[coxsmn] 18/5/2023 17:49

Added more.Cheap as chips

[groveman1] 18/5/2023 09:26

OK, gglpyr. Heads I win, tails you lose! ;-)

[ggplyr] 17/5/2023 18:26

Regarding being broadly neutral over time. One period of gains does not mean the next period will be equal and opposite losses. For example just because you've tossed a coin three times and it's been heads each times doesn't mean it's more likely to be tails the forth time, it's still equally likely.
If you disagree I'll happily play heads and tails against you for money :-)

[blueclyde] 17/5/2023 14:43

Yes I probably have. I was just trying to remove the impact of the customer trading gains from the figures which they are saying will be neutral over time.

[planelondon] 17/5/2023 12:45

Buleclyde, I think you are inadvertently mixing up EBIT and revenue for 2022 versus 2023.

Revenue (customer income) run rate is pretty solid at c.$150m over the last four quarters. It’s also matches the 2023 consensus revenue forecasts of $601m, that the board have recently confirmed the business is trading inline with.

[whitelotus40] 17/5/2023 12:45

this does not feel like an issue of valuations or results. It feels like something related to the outstanding class action due to be heard in June. first judgement was quite negative towards PLUS.
Or financial regulators clamping down.
IG have also an oustanding claim(s) against them also and this could spread?? .

[blueclyde] 17/5/2023 11:44

I get your point. Also looking at the numbers it is on course of $400 million EBITA down from 800 million last year. So this with the heavy capex is driving the price imo. At the end of the day the price action is what it is.

[planelondon] 17/5/2023 10:32

Blueclyde, I think it's important not to over-focus on the short-term and remember the business is in the 1st year of a 5 year Growth Plan. There's a significant level of investment taking place within the business right now. On a rolling twelve-month basis to the end of Q1, the investment run rate is up to $320 million ($150m investment marketing spend + $175m buyback). This is a phenomenal 55% of 2023 forecast consensus revenues going into investment. Right now, how many businesses are there out there investing 55% of their current revenues for future growth (and paying a modest dividend)?

It's all too easy to become distracted by short-term output values (quarterly revenues), and overlook where the real action is taking place and future value is being created, which is on the input values (investment).

For me, I hope to see this annual investment run rate of $320 million steadily increase over the next 12-18 months to above $400m.

[base7] 16/5/2023 17:28

Agree that the steady decline over time ,resulting in a poor chart, is a concern-yet the last trading update was positive & we seem to be gaining traction in the US & presumably we are making progress in Japan.Volume is also fairly low so it would be interesting to know why sentiment has shifted.I presume our larger investors having been asking our CEO,(confidentially of course) the same question.
Another trading not due until end June/early July

[blueclyde] 16/5/2023 17:16

I think I have found the reason this is selling off hard. If you look at the numbers they booked a huge trading gain of $50.1 million. They say this will be neutral over time so they will have to book a similar loss in the next quarter perhaps. Revenue hasn't grown quarter on quarter which suggests that this year EBITA would be circa $400 million instead of last years $800 million. Driven by the scalability and agility of the Group's proprietary technology and its diversified business model, revenue in Q1 2023 was $207.9m (Q4 2022: $126.7m). Customer Income(5) , a key measure of the Group's underlying performance, remained consistently strong at $157.8m in Q1 2023 (Q4 2022: $150.4m), highlighting continued customer engagement on Plus500's trading platforms, as a direct result of the Group's on-going investments in customer retention, monetisation and activation initiatives. Customer Trading Performance(6) during Q1 2023 stood at $50.1m, (Q4 2022: ($23.7m)). The Company continues to expect that the contribution from Customer Trading Performance will be broadly neutral over time.

[blueclyde] 16/5/2023 15:57

Strange. Closed at a 52 week low.

[coxsmn] 16/5/2023 15:35

Strip out cash and we are on a 2023e p/e of 3.48Lol

[coxsmn] 14/5/2023 17:07

Igg tipped in Sunday Times after fallhttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/share-tip-market-volatility-makes-ig-group-a-good-bet-xd28cjhff

[planelondon] 12/5/2023 15:14

IG Group just taken a largish unexplained drop. Perhaps, this and Plus500’s recent weakness is all related to FCA Consumer Duty regulations and their announcements around testing of 14 firms for value for money/fair value for customers.

If this is the case, the drop in the share price is overblown as the UK makes up less than 15% of Plus500’s revenues.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 12/5/2023 06:31

I thought they'd have upped the amount per diem off the back of this drop tbh. Hasn't been £15 for quite some time. I guess the mandate isn't designed for these sorts of scenarios - perhaps it's to simply buy circa £500k per day of the stock?