Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[planelondon] 16/8/2022 12:43

Base7, www.tradesniper.com

[base7] 16/8/2022 12:38

There is substantial potential for our US acquisition to result in substantial organic growth based on our building US market share & should that be perceived to be the case our share price could continue its recent strength & ,at some point, US investors will develop an appetite for our dimishing free float ( based on the assumption that buy backs will continue)

[sophia1982] 16/8/2022 10:20

At the price of £17, market cap is $2bn.
Net cash is at least 950, EV = 1.05.
The worst result over the last few years was about 100 in 2004 and 2005, implying a P/E of 10 ex-cash.
When Plus500 does well, then the P/E is 3 or even 2. Perhaps 3 this year.
Even if this business is volatile, the stock is extremely undervalued and has been so for too long.
IMHO, I would not wait for the magical acquisition to appear, but I would make substantial distributions to shareholders, doubling or tripling the BB and dividends.

[arja] 14/8/2022 14:44

lovely looking chart showing steady short term uptrend but might be irrelavant if results are below expectations or only match expectations

[base7] 14/8/2022 10:27

Results this week & Outlook will hopefully confirm our recent firm share price & set the tone for further growth confirming that we still expect to be ahead of expectations for the year

[stuffee] 03/8/2022 13:28

Thanks pl. In fact I had already approached Rob G and received a sympathetic reply. I aslo sent several emails to ESOP and am glad to say they have now agreed to accept late applications. I have suggested their imposed 14 day time limit for applications is unreasonable and compares to 30 days in the past. I have also suggested PLus make announcement of the refund process with timetable, as done in previous years.

If anyone else hasn't yet applied for tax refund, I suggest skates applied pdq.

[planelondon] 01/8/2022 17:47

Stuffee, I was under the impression from previous dealings with ESOP there was a 30 day deadline after the payment date. I’ve certainly submitted later than 30 days and been successful. I submitted on 14 July for the recent dividend and ESOP have advise “We will let you know if anything else is required”

I would take the matter up with Rob Gurner, Head of Investor Relations, as Plus500 pay ESOP to provide this service to shareholders and frankly, 14 days is too tight a deadline given the arduous requirements.

[stuffee] 01/8/2022 17:12

I've just submitted my normal claim for the recovery of Israeli withholding tax on the divi paid on 11 July and have just been informed by ESOP that they can't process the claim as it wasn't submitted before their deadline of 25 July. I dont recall seeing any mention of this unreasonable dead line. EsOP suggested I appoint an alternative Israeli adviser to secure the claim.

Until now I have always managed to claim refunds through ESOP.

Anyone else have this problem? Any ideas re alternative Israeli adviser?

[barryharmer] 15/7/2022 11:45

I thought I posted DM me as the link got removed... but must of forgot to hit send.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 15/7/2022 09:04

Linky no worky Barryharmer

[ramellous] 15/7/2022 08:57

Still nowt off ii

[ceaserxzy] 14/7/2022 18:28

Anyone received the dividend yet? Still waiting with AJBell.

[jqb1] 14/7/2022 11:39

I'm with riverman77.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 14/7/2022 06:52

How would we all feel if the Japanese acquisition swallowed $500mill of the excess cash (or even more - say $750mill). Would that change your perception of the company?

Interested to read about the differing concerns you all have. I continue to be invested here - I think, for the moment, that the US side of things has massive growth prospects - it's an absolute sleeping giant and the residents there are already active participants in the stock market - I can well imagine alot of them are eager to be able to take advantage of what Plus will offer there.

I'm guessing the US clearing business is a slow but steady earner? Will give a consistent, underlying, income?

But the size of the US market is on a different scale. That alone, despite, perhaps the issues with churn of existing customers (and the cost to replace) means I'm in for the long haul here. Not so excited by Japan.....but it's not a country I'm familiar with in terms of the residents and their active participation in stock markets/investments etc. POssibly because when I think of Japan I think stagnation or deflation.

[simplethesis] 12/7/2022 16:44

Jqb1 - what do you mean?

[jqb1] 12/7/2022 16:34

Keeping a very close eye on this business. Great opportunity coming soon.

[base7] 12/7/2022 14:22

Surely for Plus to emphasize again that trading for FY22 will be well ahead of previous expectations with almost 6 months to go is an expression of great confidence in our business model & expected continued growth & may particularly reflect increased traction in our new US business.Companies rarely disclose annual expectations barely halfway through the year & this was originally announced barely 4 months into FY22.On this trajectory we will soon have over $1bill in cash-also an appreciating asset ( currently) V £

[riverman77] 12/7/2022 13:49

Thanks, if it wasn't included last year then at least they are being consistent.

[simplethesis] 12/7/2022 13:37

It's smart to pick up on changes of disclosure, but it you look at the H1 2021 update, dated 17 July 2021, you will see that the format is the same and AUAC is also not given, even though then it was a very low number.

[riverman77] 12/7/2022 13:23

I am aware of the difference - have invested in this on and off for several years so feel I know the company pretty well. The fact is AUAC has been rising strongly - if this continues then it will start to have an impact on profits, unless there is a similar increase in average customer revenues. I guess this is possible if they are targeting higher value customers. Still not clear why they have not included this information in today's udpate though.

[simplethesis] 12/7/2022 13:08

riverman77

You're confusing AUAC, which is a one-time cost per customer, with quarterly ARPU. You haven't done any lifetime analysis of customer cohorts.

[riverman77] 12/7/2022 12:53

Sold out of these a couple of weeks ago and not tempted to get back in. Undeniably a strong set of results and very cheap. However, I have a suspicion that we are well past the peak of retail trading activity (boosted by the pandemic and cash handouts). Volatility is good for PLUS in the short term, but feel if we have a prolonged bear market then many punters will lose interest.

As others have pointed out, underlying client income is falling and expect it will continue to do so. Client losses are also a double edged sword - they may nicely boost earnings in short term but many of those punters will have lost their shirt and won't be returning.

Most importantly, I couldn't see reference to AUAC in this udpate. The previous update showed that this had been shooting up and was actually exceeding average customer revenues! Now this won't have an immediate major effect on earnings, since only a small proportion of customers will leave each year and need to be replaced. However, over time as customers leave and have to be replaced with more expensive cohort of new customers then this will have a big impact. Slightly worried and suspicious why AUAC was not shown in this udpate, when it was always shown on previous udpates. It is a very important metric in my view and we need this information.

[djokovic1] 12/7/2022 12:11

I don’t think comparing to 2021 is useful as it’s was an outlier year. As mentioned on a forward looking basis trades at 5x normalized earnings (ex excess cash). Also there is no reason CTP has to revert to 0. In fact CTP should intuitively be positive. 80% of customers lose money when trading on leverage (not 50%)