Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[blueclyde] 17/5/2023 15:43

Yes I probably have. I was just trying to remove the impact of the customer trading gains from the figures which they are saying will be neutral over time.

[planelondon] 17/5/2023 13:45

Buleclyde, I think you are inadvertently mixing up EBIT and revenue for 2022 versus 2023.

Revenue (customer income) run rate is pretty solid at c.$150m over the last four quarters. It’s also matches the 2023 consensus revenue forecasts of $601m, that the board have recently confirmed the business is trading inline with.

[whitelotus40] 17/5/2023 13:45

this does not feel like an issue of valuations or results. It feels like something related to the outstanding class action due to be heard in June. first judgement was quite negative towards PLUS.
Or financial regulators clamping down.
IG have also an oustanding claim(s) against them also and this could spread?? .

[blueclyde] 17/5/2023 12:44

I get your point. Also looking at the numbers it is on course of $400 million EBITA down from 800 million last year. So this with the heavy capex is driving the price imo. At the end of the day the price action is what it is.

[planelondon] 17/5/2023 11:32

Blueclyde, I think it's important not to over-focus on the short-term and remember the business is in the 1st year of a 5 year Growth Plan. There's a significant level of investment taking place within the business right now. On a rolling twelve-month basis to the end of Q1, the investment run rate is up to $320 million ($150m investment marketing spend + $175m buyback). This is a phenomenal 55% of 2023 forecast consensus revenues going into investment. Right now, how many businesses are there out there investing 55% of their current revenues for future growth (and paying a modest dividend)?

It's all too easy to become distracted by short-term output values (quarterly revenues), and overlook where the real action is taking place and future value is being created, which is on the input values (investment).

For me, I hope to see this annual investment run rate of $320 million steadily increase over the next 12-18 months to above $400m.

[base7] 16/5/2023 18:28

Agree that the steady decline over time ,resulting in a poor chart, is a concern-yet the last trading update was positive & we seem to be gaining traction in the US & presumably we are making progress in Japan.Volume is also fairly low so it would be interesting to know why sentiment has shifted.I presume our larger investors having been asking our CEO,(confidentially of course) the same question.
Another trading not due until end June/early July

[blueclyde] 16/5/2023 18:16

I think I have found the reason this is selling off hard. If you look at the numbers they booked a huge trading gain of $50.1 million. They say this will be neutral over time so they will have to book a similar loss in the next quarter perhaps. Revenue hasn't grown quarter on quarter which suggests that this year EBITA would be circa $400 million instead of last years $800 million. Driven by the scalability and agility of the Group's proprietary technology and its diversified business model, revenue in Q1 2023 was $207.9m (Q4 2022: $126.7m). Customer Income(5) , a key measure of the Group's underlying performance, remained consistently strong at $157.8m in Q1 2023 (Q4 2022: $150.4m), highlighting continued customer engagement on Plus500's trading platforms, as a direct result of the Group's on-going investments in customer retention, monetisation and activation initiatives. Customer Trading Performance(6) during Q1 2023 stood at $50.1m, (Q4 2022: ($23.7m)). The Company continues to expect that the contribution from Customer Trading Performance will be broadly neutral over time.

[blueclyde] 16/5/2023 16:57

Strange. Closed at a 52 week low.

[coxsmn] 16/5/2023 16:35

Strip out cash and we are on a 2023e p/e of 3.48Lol

[coxsmn] 14/5/2023 18:07

Igg tipped in Sunday Times after fallhttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/share-tip-market-volatility-makes-ig-group-a-good-bet-xd28cjhff

[planelondon] 12/5/2023 16:14

IG Group just taken a largish unexplained drop. Perhaps, this and Plus500’s recent weakness is all related to FCA Consumer Duty regulations and their announcements around testing of 14 firms for value for money/fair value for customers.

If this is the case, the drop in the share price is overblown as the UK makes up less than 15% of Plus500’s revenues.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 12/5/2023 07:31

I thought they'd have upped the amount per diem off the back of this drop tbh. Hasn't been £15 for quite some time. I guess the mandate isn't designed for these sorts of scenarios - perhaps it's to simply buy circa £500k per day of the stock?

[coxsmn] 12/5/2023 07:07

Buy backs are getting cheaper

[oi_oi_savaloy] 11/5/2023 18:48

Got a really bad feeling about this.

[blueclyde] 11/5/2023 18:04

Sell off is even more incredible when you see they bought 40,000 shares alone in the buy back yesterday. Where is the sell volume coming from.

[blueclyde] 10/5/2023 15:48

Just took another big leg lower. Someone dumping at any price? Was going to say lack of liquidity but if that were the case the 35k a share a day buy back would push it higher?

[aleman] 10/5/2023 14:39

Cable could be a factor but it's overreacting to it if so.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[blueclyde] 10/5/2023 14:33

I am just hoping it is just a case of the UK market in general. Look at a chart of L&G. One of the cheapest and solid companies going and they absolutely trashed it the last couple of weeks over ex date.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 10/5/2023 14:17

Do you know what? we saw this happen last time the share price got to £20. Literally collapsed like this as it seemed to be breaking out (for want of a better description). I realise that the business is different now (far more robust and a bit more visible/clear in it's communication) but there are still question marks about the management's communications (they have a nasty habit of springing surprises).........are they buying another company and literally using all that money to do so (no debt currently)?

[blueclyde] 10/5/2023 13:08

I am watching for an entry but do not like the way it seems to be aggressively spiking down despite the buy back. Hopefully it is just yet another one Camille of the illiquid Brexit Britain market that getting hammered into the ground.

[coxsmn] 10/5/2023 12:29

Added more.Nice profit to be made here.

[aleman] 10/5/2023 12:09

Valuation now only £600m ex £800m cash. Another round of selling seemed to kick in when the 50-day fell through the 200-day so it could be algos and momentum trading that will keep selling until enough buyers appear to turn the averages back up again. Seems strange though, given how cheap it is. Makes one wonder if news is coming. To ingore all that cash makes me wonder if it is about to get spent on something. At least the buy-backs should be more earnings enhancing now.

[blueclyde] 10/5/2023 11:53

Anyone got any ideas why this is collapsing despite one of the biggest buy backs going on the markets?

[base7] 09/5/2023 14:32

Also good points Plane & after substantial buy backs, dividends & investment in marketing & promotion-we still have a growing cash pile which,by now should be close to $1bill,on which we should be receiving a decent return by way of interest.The issues holding back the share price of many companies are just not relevant to Plus & as long as our trading performance remains strong, our share price should respond accordingly.

[planelondon] 09/5/2023 11:05

Whilst the current multiple and valuation might be disappointing, it’s worth remembering as The Times article points out this stock “is the best performing stock on the FTSE All-Share Index, including shareholder returns, since its listing a decade ago.”

The business operates on a ‘peaks and troughs’ basis. Each higher than the last as surges in new customers flow through the system.

Many consider this to be a trading stock but in reality the opposite is true. It’s a long term buy and hold with dividends reinvested to maximise from the benefit of the peaks and troughs the underlying business operations generate that replicate customer flow.