Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[riskvsreward] 05/9/2022 11:04

I would say risk off, profit taking and relatively better value elsewhere as many shares are down a lot and this one is up.

[oi_oi_savaloy] 05/9/2022 10:55

Why is the share price off when there's so much turmoil in the world right now (a good thing, in the past, for trading activity)? Any ideas/thoughts?

[aleman] 01/9/2022 09:09

After a brief dip to 20, VIX is back up to 28 again where business should be good.

[sailing john] 22/8/2022 16:04

I had bought a very overweight position here over recent months and as I said in my post 7th July planned to reduce post 1H. My expectation/hope was for an share price above 1700 and clearly we have gone far beyond that so I have decided to exit completely.

This is obviously not based on current year trading or the massive cash pile that the market generally chooses to ignore but more looking forward to 2023 where my cautious model forecasts currently match the latest analyst consensus as published on 17th Aug.

I still think current FY consensus is miles below the mark with an eps of $3.32 vs my model at $3.96 (20% higher!). However, for 2023 and 2024 I currently agree with Consensus and for that reason I'm out.

PLUS has always been undervalued by the market for various reasons but you can't argue with Mr M (sadly) when it trades at a miserly PE below 8 most of the time and completely ignores the cash pile but I've been overweight/fully out many times over recent years and I'll be back I'm sure when another opportunity for 10%+ presents itself. I think our bagger days are now behind us!

Some very knowledgeable and pleasant posters here and I will continue to follow and model in the background. I have a slight concern that the Regulator will raise his ugly head again at some point with options having such large daily swings but I'm no longer monitoring ESMA, FCMA and ASX for warning signals in their news releases. Previously they have flagged initial concerns before taking any action so worth watching if you have a large position.

GL - SJ

[base7] 19/8/2022 16:22

Massive volume today -TR1 due ?

[sophia1982] 18/8/2022 20:35

I agree! The Meets presentation is much better than the analyst call!!

[arja] 18/8/2022 20:25

No SD payable when buying the shares presumably ?

[base7] 18/8/2022 16:54

Impressive confident presentation resulting in our share price rising by 98p today -it’s been a while !Worth watching !

[sophia1982] 18/8/2022 10:08

Did anybody watch the Investor Meets presentation? Anything new? Thank you

[base7] 17/8/2022 15:27

Lets see what our CEO & CFO have to say tomorrow morning at the Investor Meets prsentation @10am

[km18] 17/8/2022 13:55

Plus500 posted Interims for the 6 months ended June 30th 2022 this morning. And they showed “Another outstanding performance, driven by continued engagement with long term, higher value customers.” Group revenue up 48% to $511.4m, EBITDA up 63% to $305.3m, Basic EPS up 52% to $2.46. 82% of OTC revenue is derived from customers trading with Plus500 for more than a year. Management are generous in returning profits to shareholders, in respect of H1 2022 distributions totalled $170.4m, including $110.2m in share buybacks and $60.2m in dividends. The balance sheet is formidable, growth robust and valuation very attractive with forward PE ratio at 7.0x. BUY...

...from WealthOracleAM

[sailing john] 17/8/2022 12:22

My Model and Consensus 2022
My Rev assumptions/quarter
Cust Rev 188, 152, 150, 150
Cust P&L. 83, 89, zero, zero

2022 ...(1H + 2H)
Rev 811 (511+300) Consensus 744! (Just 233 in 2H! but over 600/annum in 2023/24!)
Sell 310 (170+140)
Admin 68 (38+30)
PBT 434
PAT 382
eps 396c ...... Consensus 332c! (2H Consensus Rev far too low imo)

And worth noting that 1H eps was calculated using a 22% tax rate in published accts today. I assume this will be adjusted down to the PTE rate of 12% at YE (see note 8)
A 12% rate increases 1H eps from $2.46 to $2.85!

dyor SJ

Edit - When valuing the Company I suppose it's worth noting the circa $1bn Cash Pile and the average $0.3bn+ PAT vs $2bn MC

[simplethesis] 17/8/2022 12:20

SJ- the company guides to -ve CTP in H2 when it is +ve in H1. They did this also after Q1 2020, if I recall correctly. There's no intellectual logic for this, but it does mean that when there's a market bounce, as has happened, the company has a massive buffer and thus will not miss full year expectations, or at least is unlikely to do so.

Liberum revenues now at 690 this year and 620 next, ebitda 340 this year and 306 next.

[sailing john] 17/8/2022 11:31

"riverman77 17 Aug '22 - 11:32 - 710 of 713
Stripping out the trading gains/losses, core EBITDA would be $134m versus $221 for previous year. Quite a different trajectory from what's shown in the headline figures!"

R77 - It's not quite as simple as that since various variable costs are linked to Revenue and of course when they get windfall Cust P&L or Rev it is often used to grow the business eg with ad campaigns, developing new business opportunities, etc. etc. as they have done this year.

The 1H numbers were already known from the TS and I thought the commentary was (for a change) quite positive so I'm hoping the price will push back up through 1700 over the next couple of weeks.

The Consensus forecasts for 2022 (see PLUS website) has been updated today and as usual is a complete nonsense imo. At least one of the 5 analysts must be assuming if Cust P&L positive in 1H then it MUST be negative in 2H which is of course mathematical nonsense (Yes the long term trend will be around zero but as I have said before two heads in Q1/Q2 doesn't mean 2 tails in Q3/4 the odds are still 50/50ish in Q3 and Q4!

Anyway analysts appear to think the Rev in 2H will be just $233m but have forecasts for the following 2 years at just over $300m/half year. I'll post my model update shortly along with Consensus.
SJ

[riverman77] 17/8/2022 10:54

I'm not saying they couldn't make another trading gain next year but I would always treat these as one-offs and prefer to look at underlying earnings. The company themselves state they expect trading performance to be neutral over time, and I believe this has been the case if you look back over several years.

[podgyted] 17/8/2022 10:47

"The Company continues to expect that the contribution from Customer Trading Performance will be broadly neutral over time."

Its their words. They say it in all the results notices I've seen.

[beergut] 17/8/2022 10:33

Why would they not make a trading gain next year?

[riverman77] 17/8/2022 10:32

Stripping out the trading gains/losses, core EBITDA would be $134m versus $221 for previous year. Quite a different trajectory from what's shown in the headline figures!

[podgyted] 17/8/2022 10:23

"The Group generated total revenue in H1 2022 of $511.4m (H1 2021: $346.2m), including revenue of $240.5m in Q2 2022 (Q2 2021: $143.0m). Customer Income [12] , a key measure of the Group's underlying performance, remained consistent during H1 2022 at $339.8m (H1 2021: $379.2m), including $151.8m in Q2 2022 (Q2 2021: $157.7m). Customer Trading Performance [13] was $171.6m during H1 2022 (H1 2021: $(33.0m)), including $88.7m in Q2 2022 (Q2 2021: $(14.7m)). The Company continues to expect that the contribution from Customer Trading Performance will be broadly neutral over time."

So their core income actually fell and so therefore their core EBITDA also. I guess this is why the share price is falling as the Customer Trading Performance is argued to average out to zero over the years.

[coxsmn] 17/8/2022 10:07

Wow. You did well.

[base7] 17/8/2022 08:56

I first bought shortly after the IPO at around 130p & there arent many companies which have grown so strongly without going to the market for funds & all self financing without debt.There has been the odd blip over the years when our share price slipped back substantially & the fact that we are an Israeli company ,which some consider high risk,or the fact that we dont hedge which apparently increases our risk premium.If we can achieve the massive potential represented by our bridgehead investments in the US & Japan & our growth continues ,our yield remains at over 5%along with substantial buy backs (we will have bought back over 20% of our issued shares when the current buy back ends)our share price will surely continue to re rate towards whatever fair value may be-but surely much higher than this.

[coxsmn] 17/8/2022 07:58

A special dividend would be nice

[sophia1982] 17/8/2022 07:50

@riverman77, can you share your numbers please?
As I said in previous post, the company is totally undervalued, but in order to create shareholder value more courage is needed. They need to surprise the market. They could have easily paid out a special dividend of 200m now.

[riverman77] 17/8/2022 07:44

To get a better idea of underlying performance, I strip out trading gains from this year's EBITDA and add last year's trading losses to previous year's Ebitda. This leads to a pretty sharp drop in ebitda, and not quite as strong as the headline figures suggest. Still incredibly cheap with huge cash balance, but worth pointing this out.