Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[coxsmn] 13/6/2022 09:25

Live updates49 minutes agoDesignated Survivor star in new City campaignKEIFER Sutherland is to front a multi-billion billboard and TV campaign for Plus500, as the City broker seeks to expand across Europe.The Hollywood star behind The Fugitive, 24, and Designated Survivor will appear on billboards across London as Plus500 targets "financially sophisticated" potential customers.That's a vote of confidence in the market from Plus 500 and comes as rivals see revenues tumble. A lockdown inspired trading boom that saw thousands of new customers open financial trading accounts seems to be clearly over.https://www.standard.co.uk/business/ftse-100-live-13-june-uk-economy-uk-recession-us-inflation-stagflation-fears-b1005672.html

[oi_oi_savaloy] 09/6/2022 13:47

Probably a good time to buy cmc on the dip.....but I'm all in on Plus so staying away from that.

[aleman] 09/6/2022 13:36

CMCX revised its forecast to top of range and then marginally beat it due to good trading in its final quarter, Q1/2022. I'm not surprised the market has taken a profit, given the share buy-backs pushed the price up nicely, but the fall there seems excessive given that trading for Q2/2022 looks promising. We already know PLUS is trading ahead from the update only 3+ weeks ago. I think CMCX is off because it hoped for a similarly positive update but there was no current trading statement. It seems to be getting saved for the CMCX Q1 update a the end of next month - perhaps benefitting share buy-backs in the meanwhile.

[djokovic1] 09/6/2022 13:30

OOS, I wasn't clear :) I was surprised to see CMC drop so much. Didn't see anything drastic in their earnings of concern. Of course as mentioned before at 2x the Plus multiple doesnt seem like a great risk reward.

Plus dropping in sympathy, yes I agree, we are more than accustomed to that!

[ceri evans] 09/6/2022 13:24

My expectations are broadly in line with SJ and other regular posters. I couldn't resist cashing in when the price went to £16.10 and was hoping for a dip to buy back in before the 2Q results and this seemed to be it. I am back up to 6,000 shares now, with the bonus of an extra £5K in trading profits. Fingers crossed for July...

[sailing john] 09/6/2022 13:08

Thanks for the replies. Looks like we are all on the same page. Just got to wait for Mr M to catch up. Q2 TS and 1H results will confirm I hope and likely to exceed my cautious model.
I have doubled my position recently. Now significant but not as much as a few years back. Spreading risk as not following as closely as before eg regulatory news from their main markets and likely exposure to popular markets/instruments.
GL SJ

[oi_oi_savaloy] 09/6/2022 13:07

Its standard, as you know Djok, that for every bit of bad news of a competitor....will have double the impact on Plus......(slight exaggeration but....you get my point).

[djokovic1] 09/6/2022 12:56

I am slightly surprised to see the negative market reaction to CMC results but from my perspective it is irrelevant to Plus (a big part of that is that Plus trades at half the multiple of CMC).

[djokovic1] 09/6/2022 12:52

Thanks for your numbers SJ. I am aligned with you on quarterly customer income.
I think Q2 will also have a positive customer PnL given volatility and markets have gone lower since Q1 end.

I think in the short term they will easily exceed consensus EBITDA estimate of £290m for the full year, which at current exchange rate of $1.25 is $362m

They did $160m EBITDA in Q1. I wouldn't be surprised if we have an EBITDA of ~$140m in Q2 (buffeted by Customer PnL). So 1H EBITDA close to ~$300m while consensus sits at $362m for full year. That consensus number will have to be taken up again after half year results.

Longer term, I am happy with the more aggressive Share buy backs running at ~10% shares out / year at current pace.

I guess institutions see the same and hence are adding here.

[base7] 16/5/2022 11:53

Decent cautious guess but the optimist in me expects stronger performance as most unusual for any company to be that optimistic about the current FY when barely 4 months have elapsed.Fair to expect the current buy back scheme to be extended & perhaps even expanded further , resulting in a small increase in EPS in itself & our yield is likely to increase substantially with view to our distribution policy.
It will be interesting to see whether our US acquisition is also outperforming expectations,as , if so , the US market has substantial potential for us.

[sailing john] 16/5/2022 09:13

Quick model update 2022 - Quarterly Cust Inc - 188,190,170,150 and Cust P&L 83,0,0,0
Total Rev $781
eps 330p @1.23
PE sub 5 @1550p
Cust Inc and P&L obviously a cautious guess - costs from my model generated numbers based on recent years
As always interested in other views
SJ

[mister md] 16/5/2022 08:08

good stuff ...

"... anticipates that Plus500's revenue and EBITDA for this year will be significantly ahead of current market expectations"

[sailing john] 16/5/2022 08:04

Grabbed a few on the bell - was planning to wait for 1H TS but this one will more than do! Relatively small position for me but glad to be back!
GL-SJ

[base7] 16/5/2022 07:45

Great news & unusual to announce expectations "significantly ahead" so early in FY 23 , ie after only 4.5 months-inferring an spectacular H1 as they must have built into their model the potential for a less spectacular H2,in the interests of prudence.
In volatile markets & times generally Plus is likely to remain a very solid investment.

[thorpematt] 16/5/2022 07:33

"significantly ahead" is always what you want to hear, but rarely actually do.

[grahamg8] 16/5/2022 07:22

PLUS updates are traditionally cautious- under promise and over deliver. Not so this time, very bullish. Current performance must be stellar.

[rhatton] 16/5/2022 07:04

Thanks for the information SJ.
Nice trading statement this morning!

[sailing john] 13/5/2022 19:33

Hi rHatton - not currently in but your post prompted me to have a look at my model and with a stunning Q1 and tax confirmed at 12% it looks interesting. The main problem in modelling now is the two Rev numbers are just a guess for me whereas a few years back you could track their exposure by monitoring positions especially in the crypto days where I ran a crypto dummy account with PLUS all long so I could estimate Cust P&L and trade accordingly ahead of results. Regulatory risk always in the background but I'm not monitoring Regulators any more (news pages). Options look vulnerable to intervention given the daily moves. I might dip my toe in, the Q2 TS will be very interesting and tempting?

I'm not putting in the hours anymore so looking for relatively safe high yield investments. There is a relatively safe opportunity in renewables currently imo as their income is driven by RPI for ROCs/CFDs and Electricity prices for output both of which are rising significantly. RPI heading for 10% and for electricity prices - look at the headlines and your bills though they fix years 1-3 typically at 80%,50%, 30% so takes time for rises to feed through to P&L. Fuel costs are zero of course, maintenance steady and capital via loans and placings. I do need to do more research and build some models - perhaps a winter project. I have one third of my portfolio invested at a yield of 5-7% but capital growth on top for the next 2 years imo of perhaps 10-20%/annum. Here's the list in case you are interested in researching UKW, BSIF, NESF, TRIG, FSFL, SSE, JLEN. They are all starting to move up but I don't think Mr M understands the size of the opportunity for the next couple of years - yet!

Finally I have a large position in Tharisa (THS) - PGM and Chrome in SA and new PGM mine in Zim being developed - excellent management and the family own over 40% so having developed I can see a sale to one of the bigger players but perhaps not for 5 years (they have done it before). Recent positive price drivers are mine life extension, commissioning of Chrome fines plant, buyout of BEE shareholding and completion of Karo Zim acquisition and Russia sanctions might support prices. Share price currently weak over concerns about China car production driving PGM prices down but Mr M hasn't spotted the near doubling of Chrome prices that will offset in the short term imo. I have a model and I'm expecting 21p+ in 1H (imminent) and 47p FY. Current share price has fallen to 132p - Bonkers! my target 200p+ but subject to change up or down in the volatile world of PGM/Chrome pricing!!! dyor etc.

Sorry for the off topic everyone else but I have a lot of old friends here

GL - SJ

[rhatton] 13/5/2022 14:49

I haven’t checked in here in awhile,
Sailing John / simplethesis and all I really liked your models.

What have you got this year if your still in? With the recent vol in crypto and general elevated market vol, these guys must be doing well!

[base7] 27/4/2022 08:51

Poster in lse refers to Peel Hunt upgrade today to £19,accounting for our early firmness

[base7] 26/4/2022 08:28

Great to see Blackrock stick their heads above the parapet & disclose an increased holding over 5%.Perhaps they can see our US operation gaining traction?

[djokovic1] 13/4/2022 20:51

Great to see they are getting more aggressive on buyback though one could argue they can be even more aggressive given cash on hand and low valuation.

[ceaserxzy] 12/4/2022 16:50

Market cap £1530m. Cash pile £680m. and one quarter ebitda £125 m. Incredibly cheap valuation.

[chucko1] 12/4/2022 10:03

I am not sure the graph is any stranger than any other announcement day. There have been days far more perplexing than this!