Petrel Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kdickson] 06/12/2023 13:12

Yes, and most Russian companies are going to go for licences nearer the Syrian border or in the South of Iraq (along with Chinese). It's all very political and Iran plays a huge part in which fields their Russian and Chinese friends get. I think that a small field nearer the centre will not be of importance to these bigger IOC's. Especially with the 20 year relationship PET has with the IOM who "want partners, not bosses".

[felix0007] 06/12/2023 13:06

Thanks KD and indeed that is the one. Ianio that is a possibility and a risk however the hope is that relationships that have been built are strong and if we partnered with Itochu they are an eastern company so that box ticked anyway!

[kdickson] 06/12/2023 13:05

Interesting to note that, on the original LR5+ list in October, it has Merjan lumped together with Kifl and West Kifl.

Merjan has 800million barrels so it could be a lot more if this figure excludes Kifl & West Kifl. Some sources suggest Kifl has 100 million barrels and West Kifl has 600 millionso in theory a possible 1.5 billion barrels (but take with a pinch of salt).
-------

Here's a repost of 20915

Interesting to note that, in addition to the Merjan entry, which Petrel successfully completed a Technical Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on in 2008, they also completed an additional TCA on Dhufriya in the same year:

Deima [Dima, Deema] Field - Maysan Governorate-
Qalat Saleh Area - Maysan Governorate
East Baghdad - Baghdad & Salahuddin Governorates
Dhubarriya [Dhafriya] Field - Wasit Governorate
Alan [Allan] Field - Nineveh Governorate
Sasan Field - Nineveh Governorate
Balkana Field - Salahuddin Governorate
Abu Khaymah Field - Basra Governorate
Middle Euphrates Fields (Kifl, West Kufil & Merjan)

This map (black boxes) shows the fields in question:


This is the map from Petrel's 2008 Annual Report:


So, 2 out of 9 fields on that 5th round+ list have been studied in depth by PET (at the request of the IOM at the time).

Hopefully won't be too long until the successful companies are announced.

[ianio5691] 06/12/2023 12:52

Most western based oil companies seem to be out of favour in Iraq, in preference to Russian and Chinese offerings.

If Petrel were the only bidder on Merjan, it puts us in a good position for that field, but if Iraq are completely anti-west, it could just get kicked further and further in to the long grass without any decision or commitment.

[kdickson] 06/12/2023 12:50

Hi Felix,
I think you're referring to this previous post (21114):
----------

Hi Felix,

Here's a post I did back in July on my thoughts for potential share price if Merjan was won and fully developed (was post 20948).

I think, on the day of announcement, we'd be well over 10p and breaching 20p within days. Obviously a couple of years to get to multi-pounds.

----- Post 20948 -----


Merjan share price

The value to Petrel if we were awarded Merjan-Kifl-West Kifl and it got developed into a 100,000 bopd producer, then that alone would be company changing.

According to the article in my previous post:
"In the hybrid revenue-sharing model, for each barrel of oil produced, 25% would go towards the Iraqi state as a royalty, while the remaining 75% would go towards reimbursing shareholders for capital and production costs and be distributed as revenues".

Assuming Petrel JV'd with Itochu on a 50/50 basis with Petrel as the operator (37.5% each), and after our 'capital & production costs' we had 10% profit, then at 100,000 bopd, the calculation is:

100,000 x 365 days x £50pb x 10% = £182.5m profit per year.

£182.5m / 178m shares = £1.03 eps.

At PE of 6, this would support a price of £6.15 per share.

And a market cap of £1.1 billion.

[kdickson] 06/12/2023 12:47

Merjan has at least 80 million barrels.

[ianio5691] 06/12/2023 12:46

And thats why its a binary bet Felix.....

Do you feel lucky???

[felix0007] 06/12/2023 12:29

From my quick calcs this is potentially boggling share price wise

[felix0007] 06/12/2023 12:27

Hi High!! If they are the only one that gives them a very significant chance of success!! I think KD had put up some indicative figures a while ago relating to NAV and share price etc. Whilst PET will need to share returns with a partner it would be good to know what the estimated volume of oil/gas is in Merjan and as such the value of this project.

[highlpark] 06/12/2023 11:42

I'm led to believe, currently Petrel are the only company to submit a tender for the Merjan oil field. If successful the share price will reflect the detail in the contract.

[felix0007] 06/12/2023 11:37

Well lets hope their apparent long term investment/relationship building in Iraq pays dividends. The wait is excruciating though!!

[alicat1] 06/12/2023 11:08

To dust off another one from the PET BB Bingo card “talking telephone numbers”

[felix0007] 06/12/2023 11:05

Hi High!! Thanks for that and I was just interested to see if there was any information/dates as to which the tender was to be confirmed or rejected. I thought I'd seen that this was due for release in the new year but if we could get something sooner that would be fab. Do we have any idea of the value to PET of the Merjan project and hence the impact on the sp??

[highlpark] 06/12/2023 10:32

Hi Felix,

We're all waiting.

19th September 2023 in Iraq Oil & Gas News

Irish-based Petrel Resources has claimed that an updated Merjan oil field development proposal has been submitted to the Ministry of Oil with a view to finalising a licence agreement.

News could come anytime!

[felix0007] 06/12/2023 07:20

So thats a no then!!

[felix0007] 05/12/2023 07:28

I'm trying to find info on line around the 30 new projects in the latest tender rounds but there appears to be very little available. Does anyone have any info including any dates for the announcement of contracts and specific news on the Merjan field. Thanks

[dusseldorf] 01/12/2023 10:32

BigBudda - Sounds like a scam to me for sure - there's loads of AI bots, I could trial one where a team is evidencing 280%APY on stable coins, but 90% of these are vapor and the ones that aren't quickly lose their edge and have a subscription fee whether you win or lose. The smartest and richest guy in crypto trading is 'jaredfromsubway' he has a bot that front runs almost all other bots into a trade - he makes a few hundred thousand daily across 100's of stocks and he's never revealing or sharing how he does it, doesn't need to.

To be honest Ive given up (at least outside of people in my immediate trading circle) suggesting anything bar
a) Ethereum & Bitcoin - A no brainer, seriously, no brainer for anyone - buy monthly in small portions via coinbase (set up standing order, they allow it) set and forget crypto, over 3-5 years you'll still win (3-500%) even if you don't give a toss what happens in crypto. These are the grease that keeps crypto moving, and crypto is expanding still exponentially.
b) Phuture Finance - (its a token)UK founded by Charles Storry & Oliver Mehr (ex-crypto VC). basically an index platform that can create basket tradable assets (so lets say a Defi token, a AI token, a property token etc.. each containing the best in class assets in each sector. They make money on every trade. 95% of wealth in tradfi is in indexes, 0.3% of of wealth in crypto is in indexes, thats a multi-trillion dollar opportunity.

[bigbudda] 01/12/2023 09:56

Dusseldorf what about Elon Musks crypto AI trading platform does that work or is it a scam

[dusseldorf] 01/12/2023 09:38

500k sold so far this morning (not me, just saying).

While we wait.....I spend most of my time crypto trading these and PET is literally my last traditional stock - not sure anyone's interested but I'll highlight some of the reasons why owning/trading projects on blockchain is much more interesting and transparent and why tradfi 'shares' format will die...soon:

Firstly when I say 'token' its akin to shares..

- Hybrids exist - Traditional shares can be tokenised in a method called 'synthetics'. Synthetics allow you to trade e.g. Apple/tesla etc.. on blockchain and hold in your wallet (your keys) and trade 24/7/365. The underlying asset is held by a central synthetics provider.
- For normal crypto only launch projects, All trades and holders are visible - you can literally see what any 'wallet' is holding at any point, what they last paid, when they last traded etc.. even what stock or asset they sold to fund the purchase, whether they are dumping even if you don't know who owns the wallet. Also what else they are holding in the same pot. 100% transparency on movements - though you may not know who 'owns' the wallet.
- Token contracts either allow 'mint' (creation of new tokens) or they don't - those that don't cannot dilute you, ever. They also allow 'locking' so team allocations can be locked for 3 years of 'vested over 5 years etc.. all in a transparent way
- Teams raise funds by using token allocation right at the beginning - so when a project launches, teams start of with e.g. 30% of all tokens (allocate to marketing, dev etc..), subsequent raises are normally private equity not linked to the 'tokenomics' of owning a tradable token i.e. holders get reward X from profits - salary and bills come from allocation Y. Most projects have a in real life company behind them but 'share' profits with 'public' platform
- teams often run AMA's (Ask me anything) sessions where people get on a call (X spaces or telegram) - often 100's or 1000's join and teams field every question raised by community, bring in guests (I'm invested in an adult focussed project out of UK aiming to take on only fans and they'd had 10+ AMA's since launching 2 weeks ago)
- Most teams are available in discord chats or telegram - you can approach them, ask them things - I've met with 3-4 teams in real life for beers just via direct approaches
- projects often incentivise commitment via 'staking' so stake your token for e.g. 4% yield
- Markets are open 24/365 literally ALL the time, there is no point that you cannot sell your token. Money can be moved 'immediately' funds withdrawn and converted (e.g. at coinbase) immediately. I can access any of my invested funds, any time, any place and pull to bank 24/7/365
- There are no 'human' market makers - market makers are dead, you literally have two options a) list your stock on a centralised exchange at the price you want to sell at or buy/sell to market or b) Sell to a decentralised AMM (Automated market maker) liquidity pool. You can actually be a market maker by providing liquidity. For example by providing a token and a trading pair like Ethereum you can stake these in an AMM pool and earn 10-30% return on average (all trades net 0.3% return for your share of the amm pool) but can be 200-300% APY equivalent on 'active' days when projects fall or rise dramatically.

[monis] 30/11/2023 11:07

It's just a waiting game now. Fingers crossed it's the result we want.

[dusseldorf] 30/11/2023 10:28

There was one of those the other day too - 'MM smoke signals' is one I missed off my bingo list - could be, I mean why waste the cost of a trade.

[blakieboy7] 30/11/2023 10:12

Who bought 40 shares!? Ha

[apotheki] 30/11/2023 09:05

Agreed it is bitterly cold out there but still hot in the MENA region!