Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[gswredland] 01/3/2023 07:58

That seems to be the pattern t-trader as with TPK yesterday

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2023 07:57

Outlook not good.

Reservations have fallen significantly.

Uncertain fy2023.

Dividend cut.

Reservations falling is more significant than the dividend.

Remember the banks paid a good dividend before the GFC. Their shares crashed.

[t-trader] 01/3/2023 07:55

Results look ok to me, but divi reduced a bit more than expected.

Expect price to dip at the open and then recover during the day.

[brucethegoldfish] 01/3/2023 07:50

I agree with wfcreserves. 2023 dividend no less than 60p. Interim dividend later in year will be 1st instalment, I would estimate in 20-25p range.

[t-trader] 01/3/2023 07:49

Final and only dividend for 2022 of 60p reads to me that 60p is total for 2022.

The interim later in the year is relating to 2023.

[wfcreserves] 01/3/2023 07:37

It says the dividend of 60p is intended to be maintained for 2023. The interim may just be a first instalment not necessarily 60p?

[sdt7618] 01/3/2023 07:37

I'd read it as that, However it could also be read as maintaining the 2022 dividend, Which would be the interim paid last year plus this. Its just the sentence that says this is the only 2022 dividend causing me to scratch my head on this.

[garycook] 01/3/2023 07:32

w31,Yes agreed 8.26% yield

[winner31] 01/3/2023 07:27

That’s how I read it as well so £1.20 at least this calendar year , i’ll Take that

[garycook] 01/3/2023 07:23

FY results look good. Regarding the Dividend of 60p.I take it from reading below that at least 60p will be paid also later this year. Any comments ? For 2022, the Board proposes a final dividend of 60p per
share to be paid on 5 May 2023 to shareholders on the register
on 14 April 2023, following shareholder approval at the AGM.
This dividend is the final and only dividend in respect of
financial year 2022.
-- For 2023, the Board's intention is to at least maintain the
2022 dividend per share with a view to growing this over
time. As previously announced, payments will be made semi-annually
and the Board intends to pay an interim dividend in the second
half of this year in relation to 2023.

[gurunostradamus] 28/2/2023 22:35

There is a limit to negativity! Long term brick and mortars win hands down:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[yossarian1975] 28/2/2023 15:01

Fair enough, and credit where it's due, you were calling for a share price fall last year and that's what happened. I still think the PSN share price and those of other housebuilders are oversold, even if no reduction to EPC and without H2B, and that the current environment is not like 2008 because banks are much better capitalised. We may also get a successor to H2B, as both main political parties will continue to support higher house prices as generally speaking most voters like them, whether or not they actually benefit from them, and I don't think a Keir Starmer led labour government will take away the punch bowl.

[sikhthetech] 28/2/2023 14:48

yossarian

"Personally I don't think that will happen and it's already in the share price in any case, which has created a clear medium term buying opportunity imo, but each to his own. Different opinions are what give us a market."

Absolutely, different opinions are what creates the market. My opinion is based on company/sector newsflow and my experience of housing market and the stock market.

We'll see if the Chancellor does keep the energy price cap for typical households at £2500 in 2 weeks time.
I think affordability will get worse before it gets any better.


In the meantime..Help to Buy was a significant driver for Housebuilders since the GFC 15yrs ago. It's ended.

[yossarian1975] 28/2/2023 14:42

It's likely the energy price cap will be kept at £2,500 pa in the spring statement, but nothing seems likely to stop sikhtherepeat from endlessly copying and pasting his previous posts on this BB telling the rest of us how higher interest rates and energy bills and the end of help to buy are going to cause a housing market crash. Personally I don't think that will happen and it's already in the share price in any case, which has created a clear medium term buying opportunity imo, but each to his own. Different opinions are what give us a market. Wrt to the divi my guess is same interim as last year and no final, so one payment of 125p, which on EPS of 240p is close to 2x covered, so arguably meeting the definition of well covered, and high single digit yield on current SP

[adamb1978] 28/2/2023 14:37

Sikhthetech,

The EPG is increasing by 20% I agree and agree that the discount for people is decreasing.

However what someone actually pays is dependent on the energy which they use rather than the hypothetical £2500/3000 numbers. So whilst bills will vary from household to household, they should be lower in Q2 as energy usage will be a lot lower in Q2.

Do you not agree that seasonality will reduce people's energy consumption (a lot) in Q2 compared to Q1?

Adam

[sikhthetech] 28/2/2023 14:26

Adam,
"I mean, energy usage in Q2 will almost always be substantially lower than Q1 for more or less everyone due to seasonality."

You miss the point.

The govn support over the previous 6 months reduced the energy costs for households. That support as well as the energy price cap meant typical households were paying a significantly lower than they would have had the govn support and epc not existed, ie typical household paying £2500.

The govn support is ending as well as the EPG is rising by 20%.


"Currently, the price cap is £4,279/year, with the EPG discount bringing the price for a typical household down to £2,500/year, with the Government offsetting the difference. In April, the EPG is set to rise by 20% to £3,000/year, at the same time as the £400 energy bill support ends, so households will feel an even bigger impact. This is despite falling wholesale costs meaning the cost to the Government of subsidising bills will be a lot less than it budgeted for."


https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2023/02/energy-price-cap-to-fall-in-april---yet-bills-will-still-rise-20/

[adamb1978] 28/2/2023 14:13

The Energy Price Cap change is just a red herring isn't it? It gets mention in the media a lot and alongside a variety of matters but its really just noise.

I mean, energy usage in Q2 will almost always be substantially lower than Q1 for more or less everyone due to seasonality. So yes, the cap goes up 20% but unless usage is less than 17% lower in Q2 than Q1 (to take £3000 back down to £2500), bills will actually fall in Q2

Unless people are forecasting really weird weather the change to the energy cap makes no difference whatsoever

[tourist2020] 28/2/2023 14:11

From the November Trading Statement:

The Board will implement a new Capital Allocation Policy with the following key principles:



●

Invest in the long-term performance of Persimmon by ensuring the business retains sufficient capital to continue our disciplined and appropriately timed approach to land acquisition.

●

Operate prudently, with low balance sheet risk, and a continued focus on achieving a superior return on capital.

●

Ordinary dividends will be set at a level that is well covered by post-tax profits, thereby balancing capital retained for investment in the business with those dividends.

●

Any excess capital will be distributed to shareholders from time to time, through a share buyback or special dividend.



The 2022 dividend per share will be announced in March 2023, alongside the Group's full year 2022 results, and paid in Q2 2023. Guided by the new policy, when proposing the 2022 dividend the Board will carefully consider the business' performance, financial position and outlook at that time. There will be no special distribution for 2022.

Depends what "well covered" means. At a slightly optimistic 240p EPS a divi of 160 would be 1.5x covered. Not sure if that is "well covered" in the current environment.

[sikhthetech] 28/2/2023 13:51

winner

"WHAT TO WATCH:

--FORWARD SALES POSITION: Analysts will be watching for guidance on 2023 completions, especially as the company already noted that falling reservations in the second half"


That's what I've been saying for ages. Glad others are catching up.


Need to read their comments on how losing Help to Buy (was around 20% of their private reservations) impacts them.

Also energy price cap for typical households rising significantly to £3000 from April, just over a month's time. On top of tax rises and other utility price rises.

[jun_man] 28/2/2023 13:49

There have been no dividends declared or paid in respect of FY2022. The last dividend paid (on 8th July 2022) was the final dividend for FY2021.

I would be positively surprised if they declare a dividend for 2022 of more than 125p tomorrow, but let's see.

[time 2 retire] 28/2/2023 13:35

So a 161.99p total divi for the year minus the already paid £1.10 from the interim leaves just shy of 52p to be announced tomorrow, very welcome.

[winner31] 28/2/2023 12:41

By Joe Hoppe

Persimmon PLC is scheduled to report results for 2022 on Wednesday. Here's what you need to know:

REVENUE: The U.K. home builder's revenue for the year is expected to rise to 3.79 billion pounds ($4.57 billion) from GBP3.61 billion a year prior, according to a consensus of 15 analysts and taken from FactSet. This reflects an increase in new home legal completion volumes and an increase in average selling prices, as disclosed in the January update.

PRETAX PROFIT: Pretax profit is expected to rise to GBP983.6 million from GBP974.1 million, according to a consensus of 15 analysts taken from FactSet.

WHAT TO WATCH:

--FORWARD SALES POSITION: Analysts will be watching for guidance on 2023 completions, especially as the company already noted that falling reservations in the second half, with the forward order book down to GBP770 million, AJ Bell analysts said in a research note. January's trading update was relatively reassuring about the numbers for 2022, but the outlook for the year ahead seemed pretty murky, the brokerage added.

DIVIDEND: A total dividend for the year of 161.99 pence is expected, down from 235.0 pence a share in 2021, according to 15 analysts and taken from FactSet, as house builders tighten their belts ahead of an unclear year.

[sikhthetech] 24/2/2023 14:45

The next set of results should give an indication of outlook without Help to Buy scheme, which provided a 20%(40% in London) interest free loan for 5years.

1st March - PSN reporting fy results - Outlook important.

Budget in 3 weeks - will the Chancellor announce any scheme to replace H2B

Taxes, utility bills etc going up from April, further impacting affordability.


sikhthetech5 Feb '23 - 21:33 - 4023 of 4043 Edit
Help to Buy scheme, which allowed FTBs to get an interest free equity loan of 20%(40% in London) ended to new applications at end of Oct.

HBs originally had until end of Dec to complete but that was extended until March, next month. The fear was hundreds of FTBs would have been forced to cancel as the homes were not completed.

HBs made hundreds of millions from the scheme.

Then what? There's no scheme which gives FTBs 20% interest free loan.

PSN said around 20% of their reservations used the scheme, which is a huge chunk.

This is why HBs are likely to be busy right now. Homes being completed in a hurry to complete before 17th March, 6 weeks from now, otherwise hundreds of purchases would have fallen through. How many corners will be cut to complete the property?


Government extends Help to Buy build deadline again

"The government has extended the deadline on its Help to Buy scheme and given builders an additional six weeks to finish off homes."

"The decision, which could save hundreds of new first-time buyers’ purchases from falling through, means developers will now have until 17 March to get the new build homes complete. "

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/news/government-extends-help-to-buy-build-deadline-again-80041

[adamb1978] 23/2/2023 16:20

Interesting views Viscount. Personally I dont see us having a recession and earnings forecasts for this sector are already very pessimistic

[viscount1] 23/2/2023 15:30

I have a theory that there is a one-way bet developing on large UK housebuilders.

The UK will either go into recession this year or not:

1. If it does go into recession the likely effect on nominal house prices is bad, and even worse in real terms. The Tory UK government will get lots of heat from homeowners (a core constituency) and the Daily Mail will go off the wall mental. With an election looming, the government will be pressured into taking action to prop up the sector. This will then be constructive for housebuilders.

2. If the UK does not go into recession, the market will recover quite quickly. This will obviously be constructive for housebuilders.

So net net, buy Persimmon (or similar) with a 12 month short term view.