Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[markbelluk] 12/1/2023 07:27

>So are profits

Donkey! The operating margin is 26.6%!!

[sunshine today] 12/1/2023 07:26

Dire.

Help to buy is over.

So are profits

So are dividends

[beckers2008] 11/1/2023 16:16

Bdev share price recovered from October lows to sit range bound from mid November to uptick in last few weeks.
Market not surprised today, hence little change in share price even made a strong recovery from this morning.

Any fraction of good news will propel the sectors multiple.
Interest rates close to the peak so expect steady increase in share price moving into the spring.

[sikhthetech] 11/1/2023 14:03

There you go, as expected, BDEV confirms mortgages had already gone up and were already impacting the housing market, pre-mini budget.


Barratt warns of 'marked slowdown' in housing market


"Housebuilder Barratt says it has seen a "marked slowdown" in the UK housing market over the past six months.

Boss David Thomas said the market had been hit by "political and economic uncertainty" and rising mortgage rates, which made homes less affordable."


"Mortgages had already been getting more expensive last year due to interest rate rises brought in by the Bank of England, but rates peaked in the aftermath of the mini-budget announced by former prime minister Liz Truss and her then chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng."

[jugears] 11/1/2023 12:14

You will find out tomorrow!but 1000 would be an exceptional long term investment, build & labour cost starting to fall, I see a huge shortage of new houses when buyers return & much higher prices & hb returns to share holders, a bit of short term pain will be well worth the long term gain, but my guess is that buyers have already started to return judging by our current hb order book.

[currencytrader1] 11/1/2023 08:52

This is heading for 1000p. March I'm betting.

[brut winky] 09/1/2023 08:45

Mothballing sites, next leg down within weeks.

[onehanded] 09/1/2023 08:45

Think a breakout in the coming months. Inflation has peaked and nearly over Next CEO says, Bank of England says inflation to half by end of year, Sunak says inflation to be half by end of year and Ukraine war entering a real phase where a peace deal or Putin to step down (forced) approaching. Which reason to buy lol. Jan 2022 was the time to short, not add or keep open over the coming months. From FT online Friday - 'Eurozone inflation returns to single figures in sharper than expected fall'. Coming next to the UK. Mortgage rates already starting to reflect this in the longer projections. Buying at the bottom is always the investment strategy and could do well in the medium term here with PSN.

[sikhthetech] 06/1/2023 15:22

These are PSN and TW from previous, GFC, housing market crash.

The share price dropped in 2 stages... the actual share price is irrelevant... it's the fact they dropped in 2 stages which is interesting... 1st when there were signs of a housing market crash and 2nd months after HBs confirmed how bad it was.

HBs are reporting TUs over the next couple of weeks.



Psn
05/07 1400p
05/08 600p
12/08 200p

TW
05/07 500p
05/08 125p
12/08 8p

[sikhthetech] 06/1/2023 15:21

ST,

"Absolutely stinks to encourage FTB"

exactly.

If homes were selling fast then they wouldn't be making these kind of offers, would they?.
It's desperation to attract homebuyers, which would happen if sales were slowing/falling.

It's certainly doesn't replace the 20% (40% in London) interest free loan via the Help to Buy scheme, which closed to new applications at end of October.
around 20% of PSN completions used the scheme, which is a huge number.

[onehanded] 06/1/2023 14:57

From FT online today - 'Eurozone inflation returns to single figures in sharper than expected fall'. Coming next to the UK. Mortgage rates already starting to reflect this in the longer projections. Buying at the bottom is always the investment strategy and could do well in the medium term here with PSN.

[sunshine today] 06/1/2023 12:22

Shameless.

Those same FTB “s get stitched again paying higher mortgage rates . ( 5% deposit).

At the rate prices are falling, they will lose more each month than the benefit of free mortgage payments.

AVOID.

STINKS

[sunshine today] 06/1/2023 12:19

NEWS
Persimmon launches 10-month ‘mortgage free’ offer
by: John Fitzsimons
03/01/2023 • 1
Persimmon launches 10-month ‘mortgage free’ offer
Housebuilder Persimmon has launched a new promotion where it will cover the mortgage payments of new customers for up to 10 months after they purchase a new build home.
The deal is available to those who reserve a new Persimmon home by 31 January, with the builder suggesting it would free up cash to help buyers deal with the rising cost of living.


/////////////////////.

Absolutely stinks to encourage FTB , to sign on the dotted line , (within 3 weeks,) for an overpriced box, that’s falling like a stone.

[onehanded] 06/1/2023 12:14

Think a breakout in the coming months. Inflation has peaked and nearly over Next CEO says, Bank of England says inflation to half by end of year, Sunak says inflation to be half by end of year and Ukraine war entering a real phase where a peace deal or Putin to step down (forced) approaching. Which reason to buy lol. Jan 2022 was the time to short, not add or keep open over the coming months. We will see...

[kop202] 06/1/2023 11:52

Appears range bound....but will tu in march give more ammunition to the shorters?....pe last recorded at 5.7....divi reduction and reduced revenue already priced in?..interesting watch

[sikhthetech] 05/1/2023 11:04

As I said best to trade hyped sectors... The TU over next couple of weeks...

HBs are moving with market moves, nothing to do with the sector itself...


sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price

[onehanded] 05/1/2023 09:21

looks like bottom was hit, £15 target. Buy now and wait for recovery. Inflation due to fall in the next 6 months, interest rate rise slowing and topped out after next rise. Mortgage rates already pricing in lower rate. Looks like a buy to me. I see a few so called experts have this as a buy over the xmas / new year period and starting to increase their position. We will see.... Anyone short will be closing and taking profits as the market for housebuilders is looking good into later this year and will turn.

[beckers2008] 04/1/2023 20:17

If 'Sikhthetech' can copy and paste, so can I, lol!

And now the village idiot Sikhthetech is in its 5th year of repeating the same out BS, lol!

The share price of PSN has fallen by over 50%, it's more than priced in.

Did house prices crash in the last 4 years plus that the village idiot said they would?
No, lol!

Will it admit it called it wrong from way back in October 2018?
No, lol!

Is Sikhthetech the village idiot being wrong for over 4 years?
Oh yes, lol!

Now what was the average UK house price in October 2018 compared to October 2022?
Significantly lower, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 04/1/2023 19:47

HBs are reporting TU over the next couple of weeks.

That'll give an idea, although still early days, how Help to Buy ending at end of Oct has impacted them... PSN had around 20% completions using the scheme.

The number of cancellations will also be worth watching...

[onehanded] 04/1/2023 15:17

Sunak says inflation WILL be half what it is now by end of this year and back to 2% sometime the year after. If that's not a reason to buy here or close shorts at a early stage in a recovery, not sure what else investors need. £15 first target then onto £18, sure to be bumps on the road, but steady climb expected.

[onehanded] 04/1/2023 08:58

looks like bottom was hit, £15 target. Buy now and wait for recovery. Inflation due to fall in the next 6 months, interest rate rise slowing and topped out after next rise. Mortgage rates already pricing in lower rate. Looks like a buy to me. I see a few so called experts have this as a buy over the xmas / new year period and starting to increase their position. We will see.... Anyone short will be closing and taking profits as the market for housebuilders is looking good into later this year and will turn.

[tourist2020] 04/1/2023 06:29

Given the relative strength of the rental market which shows no sign of slowing, and the challenge of mortgage finance which shows no sign of improving, I suspect PSN should/will start looking at build-to-rent. I know they are mostly family homes, not flats, but there are a lot of families out there.