Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[jswjsw] 01/3/2023 09:34

I would be surprised to seee price clawback today.
If you add up their margin reduction prediction it comes to 1300 bps. That is huge.

IMHO these are a sell even after today's drop.
J

[gswredland] 01/3/2023 09:25

Agree Uty. Happening a lot with shares. look at tpk yesterday

[sundance13] 01/3/2023 09:23

Assume you're either short or looking for a bargain entry price or both?

[utyinv] 01/3/2023 09:20

This is the trend these days. On results day the shyster hedge funds depress the market so they can panic people into selling, buying back cheap shares.

Wouldn’t surprise me if the current 135p fall is clawed back by the end of the day. AIMO :)

First day of spring today and in a couple of weeks the weather will change for the better allowing civil works to accelerate. A rising population and much in need of housing will benefit house builders.

Long term buy ?

[sunshine today] 01/3/2023 09:01

Agreed , the bulls need to look back at past property crashes.

Chasing yield is highly dangerous in Any sector.

The only cost under a house builders control, is land.

Hence look for a big hit on that front within 18 months.

[stockhunters] 01/3/2023 08:55

and it is not as easy as waiting for rates to go down

[scepticalinvestor] 01/3/2023 08:41

Haha already priced in

[gswredland] 01/3/2023 07:58

That seems to be the pattern t-trader as with TPK yesterday

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2023 07:57

Outlook not good.

Reservations have fallen significantly.

Uncertain fy2023.

Dividend cut.

Reservations falling is more significant than the dividend.

Remember the banks paid a good dividend before the GFC. Their shares crashed.

[t-trader] 01/3/2023 07:55

Results look ok to me, but divi reduced a bit more than expected.

Expect price to dip at the open and then recover during the day.

[brucethegoldfish] 01/3/2023 07:50

I agree with wfcreserves. 2023 dividend no less than 60p. Interim dividend later in year will be 1st instalment, I would estimate in 20-25p range.

[t-trader] 01/3/2023 07:49

Final and only dividend for 2022 of 60p reads to me that 60p is total for 2022.

The interim later in the year is relating to 2023.

[wfcreserves] 01/3/2023 07:37

It says the dividend of 60p is intended to be maintained for 2023. The interim may just be a first instalment not necessarily 60p?

[sdt7618] 01/3/2023 07:37

I'd read it as that, However it could also be read as maintaining the 2022 dividend, Which would be the interim paid last year plus this. Its just the sentence that says this is the only 2022 dividend causing me to scratch my head on this.

[garycook] 01/3/2023 07:32

w31,Yes agreed 8.26% yield

[winner31] 01/3/2023 07:27

That’s how I read it as well so £1.20 at least this calendar year , i’ll Take that

[garycook] 01/3/2023 07:23

FY results look good. Regarding the Dividend of 60p.I take it from reading below that at least 60p will be paid also later this year. Any comments ? For 2022, the Board proposes a final dividend of 60p per
share to be paid on 5 May 2023 to shareholders on the register
on 14 April 2023, following shareholder approval at the AGM.
This dividend is the final and only dividend in respect of
financial year 2022.
-- For 2023, the Board's intention is to at least maintain the
2022 dividend per share with a view to growing this over
time. As previously announced, payments will be made semi-annually
and the Board intends to pay an interim dividend in the second
half of this year in relation to 2023.

[gurunostradamus] 28/2/2023 22:35

There is a limit to negativity! Long term brick and mortars win hands down:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[yossarian1975] 28/2/2023 15:01

Fair enough, and credit where it's due, you were calling for a share price fall last year and that's what happened. I still think the PSN share price and those of other housebuilders are oversold, even if no reduction to EPC and without H2B, and that the current environment is not like 2008 because banks are much better capitalised. We may also get a successor to H2B, as both main political parties will continue to support higher house prices as generally speaking most voters like them, whether or not they actually benefit from them, and I don't think a Keir Starmer led labour government will take away the punch bowl.

[sikhthetech] 28/2/2023 14:48

yossarian

"Personally I don't think that will happen and it's already in the share price in any case, which has created a clear medium term buying opportunity imo, but each to his own. Different opinions are what give us a market."

Absolutely, different opinions are what creates the market. My opinion is based on company/sector newsflow and my experience of housing market and the stock market.

We'll see if the Chancellor does keep the energy price cap for typical households at £2500 in 2 weeks time.
I think affordability will get worse before it gets any better.


In the meantime..Help to Buy was a significant driver for Housebuilders since the GFC 15yrs ago. It's ended.

[yossarian1975] 28/2/2023 14:42

It's likely the energy price cap will be kept at £2,500 pa in the spring statement, but nothing seems likely to stop sikhtherepeat from endlessly copying and pasting his previous posts on this BB telling the rest of us how higher interest rates and energy bills and the end of help to buy are going to cause a housing market crash. Personally I don't think that will happen and it's already in the share price in any case, which has created a clear medium term buying opportunity imo, but each to his own. Different opinions are what give us a market. Wrt to the divi my guess is same interim as last year and no final, so one payment of 125p, which on EPS of 240p is close to 2x covered, so arguably meeting the definition of well covered, and high single digit yield on current SP

[adamb1978] 28/2/2023 14:37

Sikhthetech,

The EPG is increasing by 20% I agree and agree that the discount for people is decreasing.

However what someone actually pays is dependent on the energy which they use rather than the hypothetical £2500/3000 numbers. So whilst bills will vary from household to household, they should be lower in Q2 as energy usage will be a lot lower in Q2.

Do you not agree that seasonality will reduce people's energy consumption (a lot) in Q2 compared to Q1?

Adam

[sikhthetech] 28/2/2023 14:26

Adam,
"I mean, energy usage in Q2 will almost always be substantially lower than Q1 for more or less everyone due to seasonality."

You miss the point.

The govn support over the previous 6 months reduced the energy costs for households. That support as well as the energy price cap meant typical households were paying a significantly lower than they would have had the govn support and epc not existed, ie typical household paying £2500.

The govn support is ending as well as the EPG is rising by 20%.


"Currently, the price cap is £4,279/year, with the EPG discount bringing the price for a typical household down to £2,500/year, with the Government offsetting the difference. In April, the EPG is set to rise by 20% to £3,000/year, at the same time as the £400 energy bill support ends, so households will feel an even bigger impact. This is despite falling wholesale costs meaning the cost to the Government of subsidising bills will be a lot less than it budgeted for."