Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[scepticalinvestor] 12/1/2023 12:45

Hahah sikh you dimwitYou cld have bought these at 1100 too you moron

[sikhthetech] 12/1/2023 12:25

amazing how this thread suddenly gets busy with so many experts when the share price looks like it's about to rise.

Where do they disappear to when the share price is falling.



Jugears
"can you explain whats going on with the share price today or would you like me to send you a box of kleenex over?"

I posted the share price should be around these prices based on the sector newsflow. The sector newsflow has been as expected.
And they are.


Can you please explain why you are down 60% here and down 40% EZJ?

[jugears] 12/1/2023 11:56

And still the share price rises as expected the markets have more than all owed for this in the current share price!

[sikhthetech] 12/1/2023 11:41

There you go, as expected, H2B ending has a sharp impact on the sales rates..

Sales falling off the cliff. Monthly cash cost of mortgage payments to FTB approx doubled!!!

Energy price surge, tax increases on top of that..

And it's early days.



"Higher mortgage rates, inflation, heightened market uncertainty and the end of reservations under Help to Buy in England, had a sharp impact on the Group's private sales rates in the fourth quarter and will have an adverse impact on the outlook for 2023. Taking together the absence of Help to Buy and the increase in mortgage rates, we estimate that the monthly cash cost of mortgage payments for some first time buyers has approximately doubled over the past year(1) compounded by limited availability of high loan to value mortgages. While we are promoting initiatives to stimulate demand, including the recent launch of our "10 months mortgage free" customer offer, which generated a strong increase in website enquiries in its first week, it is too early to predict when there will be a recovery in demand."


sikhthetech - 18 Dec 2022 - 20:15:56 - 3892 of 3964
HBs updates are due in about a month.

H2B ended to new applications at end of Oct, mortgage interest rate rises, affordability at crisis point...

Completions will still be ongoing for orders already taken. The last 3 months of sales, cancellations will be the interesting points.

Consequences of H2B ending and the delay in buying by potential buyers waiting for interest rates to come down should have a negative impact on housing market.

[ymaheru] 12/1/2023 10:41

I’m not sure H2B will be a PPI.

Interest rates:
Years 1-5: no fees
Year 6: 1.75% of the loan
Year 7 onwards: 1.75% + CPI + 2% (1% if you took the equity loan before December 2019).

So, for 2020 buyers, we have 4-5 years before they see inflation-linked interest rates.

Also, since you’ve borrowed 20% interest free for a few years, you have to pay off the government its profit on that 20% when you sell. Big deal. It’s money from the house sale and the higher it is, the more housing wealth you as the buyer have also (owning the other 80%).

So, it’s reverse PPI. Buyers will be flooded with more cash than they’ve ever had before. They’ll either buy a new house or electrify the economy, pushing inflation in 2026-2030 higher.

[jugears] 12/1/2023 10:15

St, the demand for new homes in the uk has never been greater, now we are adding to that pressure & building even less houses, it doesn't take long for buyers to return once interest rates fall & fall they will rapidly imo, but there wont be any houses to buy, what really needs to happen is that hb's need to ramp up production & build more stock houses if you want to see prices fall & this just isn't going to happen, if anything houses prices will go up a lot higher than we have seen & tbf you can thank Liz Truss for that.I see future profits & dividends possibly doubling in the future, well worth a bit of short term pain imo.

[orinocor] 12/1/2023 10:06

sunshine Today = Ultimate Contrarian Indicator


What else are you shorting you absolute tool.

[sunshine today] 12/1/2023 10:03

Yes, the city thinks rates are coming down soon .

Hence they believe now is the time to buy house builders on an 18 month view.


I take far more notice of real facts today, and history, that points to house prices falling for years.

It’s the start of the year, last year the stock went up over the first few days, then fell and kept falling.

[jugears] 12/1/2023 09:56

Oh my Miserable Today & Sikhly can you explain whats going on with the share price today or would you like me to send you a box of kleenex over?

[jugears] 12/1/2023 09:11

Woodhawk look at the past 100 years long term house prices will always rise that's just the way it is, for the last few years hb's have struggled to keep up with demand, sales & profits may fall & dividends may be cut short term but what is more important are the lower volumes of houses being built during this time which will have a huge impact on house prices when the housing market picks up.purchasers may be put off buying at the moment but they dont go away & when they do come back it could take 10 years for hb's to meet demand.at a party for my retirement at the weekend a house builder told me that this is not the time to be building less houses & will just escalate house price growth in the future due to lack of supply, from the conversations I have on sites I do think that the hb's are being a little over cautious with there trading view in the year a head but I suppose its better than being over confident, obviously the markets were expecting a lot worse imo so just think what any slight bit of positive news may do to the share price

[adg] 12/1/2023 08:56

I totally agree that houses are ludicrously overvalued and have for almost 20 years, however, rather than try to second guess the “inevitable221; correction I have actually just accepted the situation and live with it.
Fwiw I have for several years seen one possible scenario for a house price correction to be that some of the froth would be blown off with a dose of high inflation….. and for me it actually looks like that will make up a chunk of any house price (relative) reduction - a few years of 10% inflation with a 10% actual price fall and you have a correction but it’s just hidden by the inflation and after it’s all over everybody is (relatively) happy !

[scepticalinvestor] 12/1/2023 08:46

Whenever sunshine turns up sprouting his nonsense the share price rockets LOL

[woodhawk] 12/1/2023 08:41

adj,

I recall a website called something like HousePriceCrash.com. I sold my SW London house in 2007 for nearly £500K (and I thought that was a ludicrously high price then) which I had bought for £100K... worth nearly a £Million now.

[onehanded] 12/1/2023 08:19

The update on trading news WAS already priced in to show a slow down. Now the market looking forward, see broker has buy rating. Hope shorters not caught out, as you could see this coming over the last few months. 'The fall in house prices means they will not rise as much as previous years, BUT not actually go down as much as though' comment from FT online. So looking good for the future share price

[woodhawk] 12/1/2023 08:16

Fall well overdone, judging by todays trading update. Look forward to continued rises and future weighty divis!!

[onehanded] 12/1/2023 08:12

Think a breakout in the coming months. Inflation has peaked and nearly over Next CEO says, Bank of England says inflation to half by end of year, Sunak says inflation to be half by end of year and Ukraine war entering a real phase where Putin could be forced to step down (forced) approaching. Which reason to buy lol. Jan 2022 was the time to short, not add or keep open over the coming months. We will see...

[sunshine today] 12/1/2023 08:10

That’s exactly what the city boys are doing right now.

They assume rates are coming down and the house market will soon be back up.

18 month view.

However one might like to look back at previous housing booms and the number of false recovery readings.


One buys builders when land is being given away by the banks, prices have fallen 30% plus, and the economy is growing at pace.

[onehanded] 12/1/2023 08:09

Think £15 test coming later this year and when the inflation rate next update comes in and the last interest rise is announced, then this could well see much higher.

[edmondj] 12/1/2023 08:07

Forward sales position seems the key and concerning, take-away:


Current forward sales position

£1.0bn

£1.6bn

-36%

Of which private forward sales

£0.5bn

£1.1bn

-56%


Quite whether priced-in, obviously.

[onehanded] 12/1/2023 08:04

So all looking ok in this environment. Can see clear water later this year. Trading update as expected with some difficulty BUT looking ahead looks better.

[sunshine today] 12/1/2023 08:04

“The recent strengthening of our land holdings with disciplined investment will maintain our industry-leading embedded margins.”


Umm, so you went on a land buying spree at the top of the market.

Lol

[sunshine today] 12/1/2023 08:00

Umm, off the back of 350 low mortgage rates.

Near zero general inflation

When house price inflation made 3/4 of your profit

When the government took on the risk ( help to buy)



That game is OVER.

[markbelluk] 12/1/2023 07:55

>Not only do you require to get back on track , you also need to cover lost ground.

They've made NET a billion a year for the past five years!! and are sat on well over that cash inc land

Ive been in property professionally for 25 years

Thank you

[sunshine today] 12/1/2023 07:50

Investors here might like to read a book or two about sales.

If you miss targets for a week by 75%, then a month, then two months your right in the mire.

Not only do you require to get back on track , you also need to cover lost ground.

How.

No easy when the price of your spec built property is falling on a daily basis.


Sensible builders sell up and walk.