Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[adamb1978] 01/3/2023 12:13

Tlobs

Suggest just filtering Sikh

[fuji99] 01/3/2023 12:11

The whole sector is in difficult times. "House prices see biggest annual fall in over 10 years":"hTTps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64807971"

[tlobs2] 01/3/2023 12:07

Oh dear, looks like he is geting angry again .... LOL

sikhthetit1 Mar '23 - 11:52 - 4097 of 4100 (Filtered)

sikhthetit1 Mar '23 - 11:53 - 4098 of 4100 (Filtered)

sikhthetit1 Mar '23 - 11:57 - 4099 of 4100 (Filtered)

sikhthetit1 Mar '23 - 12:01 - 4100 of 4100 (Filtered)

[adg] 01/3/2023 12:05

And you think that’s a big deal?

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2023 12:01

In other news...

Nationwide, the largest Building Society says house prices fell at their fastest annual rate since 2012... a decade!!

According to Nationwide's figures, house prices are down 3.7% since August, so in only 6 months!!


UK house prices fall at fastest annual rate since 2012
Year-on-year February 1.1% decline comes as average price of property drops to £257,406, says Nationwide

"The slide led to the average price of a property falling to £257,406, almost £900 lower than a month earlier. UK house prices are now 3.7% lower than they were at the peak reached in August 2022."

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2023 11:57

For anyone who thinks they have turned the corner, I suggest you re-read the update properly...


They have stated that they expect the business to grow from 2024 ONWARDS, the fy results of which won't be known for 2 YEARS.


"By combining operational excellence and commercial excellence along with disciplined investment we will grow the business from 2024 onwards. "

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2023 11:53

Mortgage rates have already more than doubled. Interest rates many times higher.


There are hundreds of thousands coming off fixed rate deals who will have to pay significantly higher interest. That's on top of the tax rises and energy price and other utility bill rises.

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2023 11:52

as expected, the results were dire..


The end of Help to Buy will have an big impact, especially as they had 20% of their reservations using the scheme.

Taxes, Energy prices and other utility bills going up next month.

Budget in a fortnight.



sikhthetech - 24 Feb 2023 - 14:45:02 - 4044 of 4095 PERSIMMON PLC
The next set of results should give an indication of outlook without Help to Buy scheme, which provided a 20%(40% in London) interest free loan for 5years.

1st March - PSN reporting fy results - Outlook important.

Budget in 3 weeks - will the Chancellor announce any scheme to replace H2B

Taxes, utility bills etc going up from April, further impacting affordability.


sikhthetech5 Feb '23 - 21:33 - 4023 of 4043 Edit
Help to Buy scheme, which allowed FTBs to get an interest free equity loan of 20%(40% in London) ended to new applications at end of Oct.

HBs originally had until end of Dec to complete but that was extended until March, next month. The fear was hundreds of FTBs would have been forced to cancel as the homes were not completed.

HBs made hundreds of millions from the scheme.

Then what? There's no scheme which gives FTBs 20% interest free loan.

PSN said around 20% of their reservations used the scheme, which is a huge chunk.

This is why HBs are likely to be busy right now. Homes being completed in a hurry to complete before 17th March, 6 weeks from now, otherwise hundreds of purchases would have fallen through. How many corners will be cut to complete the property?

[scepticalinvestor] 01/3/2023 11:51

Thats a bit of a mean way to talk abt your mum

[adamb1978] 01/3/2023 11:49

Andrew Bailey commented this morning that interest rates shouldnt be assumed to be going north from where they are - may or may not do - whereas market has another 75 bps factored in. Should be supportive for the sector

[sunshine today] 01/3/2023 11:47

The truth is some of us know when to buy, and have made 50, 100 times or more, on our initial investments in house builders.

You buy when they are on the floor.

Not at the top of the cycle.

Chasing falling yields is nuts.

Chasing falling profits is nuts,

[viscount1] 01/3/2023 11:41

Just bought a few on the basis that the UK government will have to bail out the housing market if there is a recession.

Also their balance sheet looks really impressive: lots of cash and no debt. I was surprised.

[adg] 01/3/2023 11:31

Some utter tools come out to play when a big drop occurs here - it’s comical
Sad pathetic gimptards
With buying and tucking away - will double your money in a few years, but alas the children who come out to play have the patience and attention span of an amoeba

[sunshine today] 01/3/2023 11:10

Umm, chart looks sicker than a pig.

You buy house builders at the bottom of the cycle ( not the top ).

[adamb1978] 01/3/2023 11:09

t-trader

The dividend cut should be taken positively in that the board are clearly very comfortable with the balance sheet otherwise they've had cut it more - the yield is still high so they could have easily taken it down further, but didnt.

Thats also the real difference with 2008 - balance sheets in the sector are far stronger

Adam

[scepticalinvestor] 01/3/2023 10:57

Sunshine where you at dog?Whenever you turn up the share price rockets up after

[sundance13] 01/3/2023 10:57

Pretty strong chart support around that £12 mark also, so agree limited downside from here but substantial upside on 2-3 year basis as economy improves.

[t-trader] 01/3/2023 10:55

As a long term investor, I’m happy to keep holding these.

Was expecting a 50% divi cut, rather than 75%…..so bit disappointed but still cash in the bank for the company and a 4.5% yield for me, so may see increased payouts further down the line as and when the housing market improves.

At the current price, I see these as fair value presently with majority of bad news being already priced in.

[sunshine today] 01/3/2023 10:49

10 Gilt is roaring back up towards 4% then 5%.

[adamb1978] 01/3/2023 10:47

Belatedly read through the RNS.

It read quite pessimistically however market forecasts for 2023 already have EBITDA falling by 46% so a huge amount is already priced in and its trading on around 12x PE. These uber-cyclicals trough (in terms of share price) when PE peaks and vice-versa.

So personally I'm comfortable with holding PSN. Economic data is improving (retail sales data, PMI, consumer confidence etc), inflation is coming down and we're nearing the end of the interest rate raising cycle

I think if you're holding this on a more than 12 month basis, you're fine

[tlobs2] 01/3/2023 10:44

Eh Jugears, don't be winding Sikh up. LOL :-)