Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[dissentingvoices] 03/3/2023 08:21

WATCH OUT FOR THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE !!!

[sunshine today] 03/3/2023 04:27

NAV : =

NO ACTUAL VALUE

[l0ngterm] 02/3/2023 22:51

So I guess it's more the defaults, challenges etc. that will impact the housing market, new build sentiment, area values, as well as the smaller salaries, interest rates, increased taxation and cost of living.All hitting the bottom line I suppose, overall the government can't prop up the profits and ladder forever.

[l0ngterm] 02/3/2023 22:31

What's that 12.1 %, for those who borrowed 5 years ago, coming out of it now.Combined with its not a fixed 20% loan. It's 20% of the value of your house at x point in time. All very interesting.

[l0ngterm] 02/3/2023 22:25

Well not really, help to buy cons: A perfect little storm? Noting 1. The amount you must repay isn't fixedRepayments on an equity loan are based on a percentage of your home's value at the time you want to repay. This means the amount you must pay back can change as the housing market and the value of your property fluctuates.If your home goes up in value, you will need to repay more than the government initially loaned you. For example, if you took out a 20% Help to Buy equity loan on a property worth £180,000, this loan would be worth £36,000. However, should you want to repay in full, and your house has risen in value to £200,000, you would have to pay back £40,000 (20% of £200,000).2. Equity loan interest rates can rise fastAfter your five-year interest-free period ends, you will pay 1.75% interest in your sixth year of having the loan. This is not unreasonable compared with the rates you might pay on other loans, but by increasing in line with CPI inflation plus 2% each year after, there is the potential for it to rise quickly and significantly.

[l0ngterm] 02/3/2023 16:43

The biggest issue I see is the 10 years of help to buy, if this transitions to, a help to supply then what's ever one's thoughts? Price crunch, drop in profits while maintaining the Labour market, as opposed to the bubble created?

[ukneonboy] 02/3/2023 16:40

You're completely wasting your time trying to convince me that UK interest rates have peaked - they definitely haven't !!!

We've been spread betting UK and US interest will continue rising and that consumer spending in the UK will continue falling.

We're WINNING - meanwhile all you amateurs are LOSING !!

C'est la vie.

[essentialinvestor] 02/3/2023 15:23

You can buy TW at NAV - if I'm reading their statement correctly,
PSN still trades about 20% over NAV.


Tbf BKG has traded very significantly over NAV for a decade plus.

[ukneonboy] 02/3/2023 14:45

It seems that quite a lot of you amateurs, definitely didn't see rises in UK interest rates coming, or the knock on effect it would have on mortgages or the downturn in consumer spending or the affordability crisis.



Ah well, at least you will know what to look out for next time !!!

[sikhthetech] 02/3/2023 14:34

TW themselves are stating that sales during Q4 2022 and Q1 are similar to what they saw during GFC.
Like I and ST said GFC mk2

The fact TW themselves are stating the fact and it's not media or BB speculation is telling you everything you need to know about the state of the market.
Straight from the horses mouth.


sikhthetech - 08 Nov 2022 - 15:13:06 - 3796 of 4144
ST,

Lots of times, every business looks at conserving cash during a slump but too many don't think with their heads. Their minds are clouded by the wish that house prices won't fall because it's their biggest investment or their dividends won't be cut in a housing slump.
Wishing for something is different from reality..

GFC mk2..

[sikhthetech] 02/3/2023 14:20

There you go, as expected..

TW.

Steep drop in estimate of sales.

Sales down 40% during key spring period.

Oct-Dec post Help to Buy ending significantly lower.

More like GFC!!
I did say it's like GFC...



Taylor Wimpey plans job cuts amid downturn in UK housing market

Building company aims to save £20m, but declines to say how many of its 5,000 workforce will be affected


"Taylor Wimpey started scaling back land purchases late last summer and estimates that it will complete 9,000 to 10,500 homes this year. That is a steep drop from last year’s 14,154"

"Speaking at the start of the key spring selling season, the firm said its sales rate for private homes had fallen nearly 40% to 0.62 a week, compared with 1.02 a year ago. Between October and December the sales rate was even worse, dropping to 0.4%. “The quarter-four numbers and the early part of this year were more like the sorts of figures that we saw during the great financial crisis,” Daly said."

[ukneonboy] 02/3/2023 14:03

Taylor Wimpey is also down after it warned that house completions were set to fall this year.



It is the latest housebuilder to see higher mortgage costs and the cost-of-living crisis knock buyer confidence following yesterday's Profit Warning from Persimmon.

[this_is_me] 02/3/2023 13:04

I'm surprised that sikh is able to post today after TLY's RNS totally destroyed him.

[sikhthetech] 02/3/2023 12:35

TW's results confirms how uncertain the outlook is.

They had 12% of buyers using the Help to Buy scheme.

HB share price tend to rise on results day but they haven't this time.

HBs need to preserve cash given the uncertainty.



Jugears,

I certainly don't do what you do. Otherwise I would have been loading up on TW at 180p whereas I backed my own research.

Obviously you'll want posters to buy TW, given you're significantly under.

[jugears] 02/3/2023 09:54

jo, I think both Tw & psn offer great future prospects, It doesn't take long to recover from a housing down turn, both have been overly cautious imo, with even less houses being built I don't see house price falling much before heading much higher than we have seen, Sikh wont be posting he will be trading, he knows like me when hes on to a good thing!

[jo2362] 02/3/2023 09:13

@Jugears, to be honest, many HBs are undervalued right now. I think with PSN they have been extremely cautious, very possible though that they will over deliver! The 60p dividend is likely to increase fairly rapidly as the clouds disperse, at that point, this share will fly!!

[jugears] 02/3/2023 08:57

Yes it is a good price to buy at,as with Tw expectations of falling sales & profits are firmly embedded in the price & see no reason why this shouldn't rise again although I do think there is a lot more upside in Tw share price.

[jo2362] 02/3/2023 08:56

@Neonboy, yes please sell if you have any left so I can scoop them up!! The housing market is collapsing, the media is ramping it up 🤣😂😂, sell sell sell!!

[scepticalinvestor] 02/3/2023 08:27

Great opp to buy now imo

[ukneonboy] 02/3/2023 08:22

That chart looks absolutely fantastic................. for all the SHORT-SELLERS !!!

[jo2362] 02/3/2023 05:36

Record numbers coming into the country, shortage of housing with many waiting on the sidelines to jump in, this narrative will change, the best time to buy is now!! Yes it might drop a bit more but in my opinion, this is a very good entry point, don't miss the boat like many did with Tesla, Netflix, Meta the list goes on..... the current price has all the bad news priced in, sentiment will turn! Meanwhile, collect the 4.6% Div! Ta very much