Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[probabilityofsuccess] 22/3/2023 15:33

Yes and yes (but they may have got a farm in before a horizontal).

Pointing out that some people have misinterpreted what has been said about them doing a horizontal test of the SMD near term (acknowledged by seejayem).

The RNS clearly states they’ll be testing the vertical wellbore. Just clarifying the facts!

[officerdigby] 22/3/2023 15:32

POS, Don't you think that after vertical SMD test a horizontal will be necessary?Don't you think a successfull horizontal s a good point to get a good deal on Farm in? Not so long ago the Co. Thought and said so in RNS/webinars

[neil9327b] 22/3/2023 15:18

Sure. And that is the way that we as informed investors are able to create value. By recognising where the market has got it wrong, the reasons why they've got it wrong, and taking positions against it. If the market was always right then there would be nothing to gain by investing at all.

[seejayem] 22/3/2023 14:58

Neil, the market says otherwise and that's what counts with your cash and mine. Time will tell.

[neil9327b] 22/3/2023 14:45

Seejayem, the advantage has not been temporarily eliminated at all. The Alkaid-2 well flowed around 500 boe/day of sellable hydrocarbons. The vertical well of the same reservoir flowed around 100 boe/day of oil over around 30 feet - without the gas. These two together do constitute proof. Proof that the rocks flow at a sufficient rate (the vertical), and proof that horizontal wells do work (the horizontal). Any more horizontal drilling in the Alkaid deep would not glean any new information for investors - all that would do is prove that 100 * the number of frack stages (say 15) = 1500. i.e. the Alkaid deep with its 77 million barrels of oil recoverable is right now fully proved up and ready to be sold for, say at $3.1/barrel, $238 million cash.

[probabilityofsuccess] 22/3/2023 14:38

Neo: “Even of they do enter smd to test, they still need to drill horizontal well along”.

No they don’t, it will be a VERTICAL test where the existing vertical wellbore passed through the SMD. It says it in the RNS.

[hpcg] 22/3/2023 14:14

I'm not sure how many active rigs there are in Alaska. Frankly if I had one up there I would be putting it at the deploy of a well capitalised frequent user rather than PANR of 88E. These two will be last in line and paying the highest rates.

[neo26] 22/3/2023 14:14

Even of they do enter smd to test, they still need to drill horizontal well along.$40m bond debt, and another 60m needed to drill at theta, talitha and alkaid in 23.Thats 50% dilution on current mkt cap.Why or why didnt they get a partner 2 years ago.

[seejayem] 22/3/2023 14:11

Prob, yes my bad, it was just a subconscious assumption. $5million seems a lot just to re-enter the well? Will not all wells when they are in Production be horizontal? Surely from a vertical well we will still only have data that has to be applied to a horizontal. So even after a vertical SMD test Pantheon can only model again what they HOPE the horizontal will be. So nothing really conclusive unless the SMD vertical test is in the multiple of 100's Boepd?

[probabilityofsuccess] 22/3/2023 13:54

Seejayem - it will be a vertical test at A2 into the SMD, per RNS.

[michaelsadvfn] 22/3/2023 13:53

There won’t be a horizontal to test the SMD.

[seejayem] 22/3/2023 12:38

Yes Neil but Pantheons advantages that you mentioned have been temporarily eliminated because there is no proof of decent flow rates and the figures are all just modelled figures albeit backed by all the major names.Hopefully a $5million horizontal in the Alkaid #2 to test the SMD will put some meat on the bones, but they can't afford any more excuses. Yes the gas cap was bad luck and it's a shame it wasn't predicted with all the SLB 3D etc. I'm hoping one day for all the optimists on these boards that Pantheon realises it's potential but for the moment we're on a bit of a flatline, waiting for news on CPR, Data Room etc. sorry for the frustration but had the same with Texas. I don't blame the shorters either, wish I'd had the foresight to gamble that way.

[pro_s2009] 22/3/2023 12:38

js.

PANR is, imo.....very simple. Buy into the placing. Sell into the ramping of the drill.

Thats it. Its not an investment, its purely for trading.

[adxwasere] 22/3/2023 12:25

Willows in the NPRA which is one of the main reasons for the litigation expense involved as well as the infrastructure costs required.

[kemche] 22/3/2023 12:24

IPFREELY flowed freely at 180bopd.

[kemche] 22/3/2023 12:21

MMs looking for cheap stock as shorts close on yet another bottom.

[elhank] 22/3/2023 12:21

Think willow could possibly be as few as 3 pads.

[truant2tb1] 22/3/2023 12:17

There’s no reason to hold these shares when you know there’s a large equity raise round the corner

Better to sell and buy back after more dilution!

10p remains my target

[hpcg] 22/3/2023 12:16

Seejayem - I'm pretty sure the Willow wells are long reach, they are only using 5 pads. The more important aspect IMO is that Willow will use seawater injection. Pressure support would be at least as important on Pantheons acreage. You just look at the time Willow has taken to get approved, the huge cost of that, and the capital spending required. One can see that Pantheon would have to hand over a huge proportion of its equity for a passive stake, and then wait years for an economic return.

[neil9327b] 22/3/2023 12:03

Seejayem, yes I believe it was a vertical well at ConocoPhilips.
The reason their flowrate is much better than ours is the quality of the reservoir is better than ours - better permeability.

But that advantage is more than eliminated by two factors:

1. We will be drilling wells horizontally, which at 150boe/day per 1000 feet over a
10,000 feet production well gives 1500 boe/day.
This is half of the ConocoPhilips flow rate.

2. They have to invest $8 billion in infrastructure just to get started. Many miles of pipeline and gravel road, whereas we are on the Dalton highway next to the trans-Alaska oil pipeline so don't have those up-front costs. We just have to drill the wells, which are much cheaper.

Their circa 600 million barrels recoverable mean this up-front cost is $13.3/barrel. Which eats significantly into the profit margin, and means they will only really be getting a decent return on investment if the oil price is high.

We, conversely, should we choose to develop the field ourselves, can be more flexible in responding to changes in the oil price by drilling more wells when it is high, and fewer when it is low. Heads we win, tails we don't lose much, so to speak.

[seejayem] 22/3/2023 11:14

Looking at Willow and was interested to find out what is making ConocoPhilips play so worth while to be spending $8billion on development. One of their discovery wells tested at 3200 Boepd which unfortunately seems a million miles from what Pantheon are getting from a vertical well. I'm assuming CPs well was vertical and at this rate they won't have to go horizontal at Willow? Anybody find any extra info on why else it's full steam ahead in the middle of nowhere or is this flow rate enough evidence?https://static.conocophillips.com/files/resources/nr-ak-willow-discoveryfinal.pdf

[helpfull] 22/3/2023 10:30

Cor blimey, guv!

I agree there were oil shows for the whole 5,300ft of the horizontal. That's the problem. There is only 180 bopd from it

"The IP30 production rate is calculated at c.505 barrels per day ("BPD") of liquid hydrocarbons consisting of c.180 BOPD oil, c.325 BPD of condensate and natural gas liquids ("NGLs"), along with c.2,300 mcfpd natural gas, after shrinkage"

Be careful.

[johnswan193] 22/3/2023 10:03

So from here, either fund raise or bring partner on board. Both will result in material dilution, however the latter scenario could catch those out who are waiting to participate on a placing.

Tele joining the management team is a welcome addition.

I didn't feel the webinar offered anything new. With greatest of respect to Tele, this management team always seem to find ways of turning a failed flow test into a positive. "Now we know what to do next time". "The reservoir deliverability exceeded pre-drill expectations". share price action post-webinar suggests the market is sick of hearing it.

As for Darcon's Q&A, I see they have again chosen to completely ignore questions from investors about their share sales at 125p. As an investor this would make me increasingly uncomfortable and lead me to having even less trust in them. IMO they played a substantial role in the share price collapse by creating an opportunity for "shorters" etc. to leverage off.

BTW - I was even told yesterday evening that the guild have started banning people who continue to raise this point. Message to those in the guild - be careful about how you use this as its intention is very clearly not to encourage balanced opinion.

I agree that if TW turns out to be what they claim the upside is enormous, even allowing for dilution, and I do expect the share price to return to levels significantly above current. But management credibility a big concern and the market will treat further negative news very harshly.

Disclosure - I hold no shares currently, though I do see them attractively priced at the moment as a speculative play.

Edit: Final note - IMO management have continuously over-promised and under-delivered. This makes it a traders dream and easy target for bear case. I get that a higher share price = more protection from takeover and less dilutive options for capital raising, but every single drill has resulted in disappointment, and even in the success case the success has been below indicated expectations (TW, although still huge, is included in this). Most likely way I play this going forward would be to buy and get out ahead of drill results. If drill results are good I expect management poor credibility will result in a reluctance in the market to fully appreciate initially, which would present a good buying opportunity at that point.