Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 15/12/2015 14:55

By the way, wulber, if you halved and then halved again the US$1250m DCF calculation figure contained in the header then you would arrive at my circa US$300m target figure.

My target OXS share price post the verdict is 15 - 20p. Anything above that would be music to my ears. Anything below that would be very disappointing.

[papillon] 15/12/2015 14:38

"Papillon I ask the question on POG, if its assets were seized in 2011 with c. 25mn oz of gold and a mine life of X years, what would you think fair compensation would be?

£208 million?"

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Of course NOT, wulber. However it's matter of fact that a miners Mkt Cap rarely, if ever, gets anywhere near a DCF NPV calculation!!

I suggest to you that POG shareholders would have been far better of if POG's assets were seized in 2011 and they had to wait until now for compensation from an arbitration panel!! I expect OXS shareholders to do rather better out of their arbitration verdict than if they had still owned their Uzbek assets!

You quote a possible PE figure of 10 if AGF were producing 300K ozs pa. Quote me a large gold producer listed on the LSE with a PE anywhere near approaching 10.

Sorry, wulber, but I believe, like many on these bb's, you are inclined to fantasise about the companies you invest in.

PS. I remember reading a knowledgeable investor saying that a NPV done at a 10% discounted rate should be halved and then halved again to achieve a reasonable Mkt Cap figure. NPV's done at a 10% discounted rate for explorers are just so much pie in the sky. Name me an explorer, or producer, where the current Mkt Cap is anywhere near it's NPV? I can't think of one.

[wulber] 15/12/2015 14:35

hxxp://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html

There's the link to the country risk premium discount and we know the DCF figures from E&Y.

This will be a big award IMHO

[wulber] 15/12/2015 14:26

Ross, you mean this:

QUIBORAX V. BOLIVIA: TRIBUNAL MAJORITY USES ‘EX POST’ DATA TO ASSESS DISCOUNTED CASH-FLOW DAMAGES FOR UNLAWFUL EXPROPRIATION – AND APPLIES COUNTRY-RISK PREMIUM DISCOUNT

Not long now!

8@D

[wulber] 15/12/2015 14:10

Yes of course 50% of AFG.

This is an arbitration award based on lost business over the last 4 years, exappropriation of assets and what would amount to a further 20 years of mine life.

Papillon I ask the question on POG, if its assets were seized in 2011 with c. 25mn oz of gold and a mine life of X years, what would you think fair compensation would be?

£208 million?

£208 million is a current valuation of POG, but has years of production ahead of it and profits to reap and most likely a gold price in to the high four digits in 10 years time.

[papillon] 15/12/2015 13:55

"This was the ARMS RNS on 31st December. The only thing which would have me questioning us getting a 'holiday period' RNS is that our panel are lazy Europeans rather than hard working Asians."

What about the RUR UNCITRAL arbitration? RUR issued an RNS on 20/12/13 saying the President of their arbitration panel that their verdict would be given by the end of January 2014. That contradicts your comment, The Stig.

[giant steps] 15/12/2015 13:55

The Stig, spell check by admin and possibly column
reformatting to accommodate large numbers!

[papillon] 15/12/2015 13:49

POG produce around 500K ozs of gold pa. Their Mkt Cap is just £208m.

Too much fantasising on these share bb's.

In fact OXS could do rather better out of the arbitration verdict than if they still had their 50% of AGF going by the trials and tribulations experienced by POG. What has happened to POG could easily have happened to OXS if they still held 50% of AGF.

[giant steps] 15/12/2015 13:48

Palpable excitement for some in the Oxus camp as
the signal for arbitration verdict was given at
the end of september - on this basis news beckons.

[the stigologist] 15/12/2015 13:47

FYI

This was the ARMS RNS on 31st December. The only thing which would have me questioning us getting a 'holiday period' RNS is that our panel are lazy Europeans rather than hard working Asians. Lazy Europeans tend to go on holiday from December 15th to January 15th. Unfortunate but true. Of course it could all have been signed off by the Arbitrators and it's just the spell-check etc being done by Admin that is the hold up in which case nothing to stop an RNS coming at any time.


Asia Resource Minerals plc ("ARMS" or the "Company")

Result of Arbitration

ARMS is pleased to announce that the arbitration proceedings against Rosan Roeslani have been successful. The arbitration tribunal in Singapore has issued an award confirming that Mr Roeslani is obliged to make payment under the settlement deed dated 26 June 2013 of the full sum of $173 million, plus accrued interest and legal costs.

The details of the award remain confidential.

The Company will seek to enforce the arbitration award by all available means against Mr Roeslani, and will update on its progress in this regard as soon as practicable in January 2015.

[papillon] 15/12/2015 13:41

Do wulber's figures take a/c of the huge CAPEX required to produce 300K pa? I somehow doubt it. Also even if they did his figures are purely hypothetical. One can't predict the future; have a look at the POG share price for evidence of that. POG were a stock market darling at one time. How much gold are POG producing pa? What's their profit? What's their Mkt Cap?

[apfindley] 15/12/2015 13:32

Pap.Wulbers figures are close.Very similar to those we calculated here many times in depth.That $3bill would be for the 100%. OXS share being 50% would be $1.5bill market cap on a 10-1 price to earnings on 300koz pa

[papillon] 15/12/2015 13:17

wulber. What's the Mkt Cap of POG? What PE do the South African, Australian & Canadian gold producers trade on? Do your figures include the huge amount of CAPEX that AGF would have had to access to achieve 300k oz pa?

I think you are fantasising with your figures. Ignoring reality.

[wulber] 15/12/2015 12:49

VALUE:

1. Amantaytau - would rank as the 11th biggest gold mine in the world and be producing $300,000,000 PROFIT per year now... YES profit not turnover. This was estimated to be ramped up to 300K oz pa production by 2015.

On a modest PE of 10 = $3billion market cap

2. Khandiza - "There is little doubt that Khandiza, if mined would provide an mcap of $1bn to any company" ALONE

WON - TBA

AWARD - TBA

All this for 3.4p per share.

hxxp://www.preciousmetalstrading.org/article/563194926/-oxs-whats-being-arbitrated-over-/

[slong] 15/12/2015 12:22

Luckyman

My concern at the time was that the CLN may have been converted at 8p to allow the holders to sell in the open market and realise some value, if we lost they wouldnt see any of the 12m anyway. This does not seem to have happened though as we have not had a massive offloading of stock by the CLN holders (or at least the company has not been informed of it!)

[luckyman3] 15/12/2015 12:17

kcowe

If we do not receive news by the end of this year then i would agree with you and say that we were misled regarding the phrase "the very near future" imo
Then unfortunately we will have to go through all this again in 2016.

[kcowe] 15/12/2015 12:10

Thank you Mr Shead for giving very near future guidance 76 days ago.

[luckyman3] 15/12/2015 12:08

When one thinks about it
Would you swap $12M for shares in a company at 8p when they were trading around 4p on the day if you thought that there was a good chance of losing all your money if we don't win our case.

[dave444] 15/12/2015 12:01

GS - It is clear now how important that was!

[giant steps] 15/12/2015 11:54

REMINDER

$12m debt converted to equity
@ 8p in October 2015

Thank you Mr Shead for resolving
the Convertible Loan Notes

[dave444] 15/12/2015 11:49

Goo post Nick!

[giant steps] 15/12/2015 11:40

Thanks Nick re #30352, a great reminder