Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[edgein] 14/12/2015 11:29

Also how appropriate is the Chinese deal in assessing lost value for AGF as since then the gold price rose significantly. Also doesn't really take in sunk costs, the $53m paid in tax as a result of the change in tax code, the general interference in the running of OXS. The fire sale of Jerooy (even though not a Uzbek asset it was sold imo as a result of the activities of Uzbek) to Polyus as a result of the pressure etc etc. But apart from all that I guess you can use the Chinese deal as a starting point.

Regards,
Ed.

[papillon] 14/12/2015 11:18

You are wrong, hbr. The OXS RNS's categorically state that the failure of the relevant Chinese Government approvals to be granted by the 31/12/10 was the reason for the lapsing of the financing agreement. There is NO mention of "ownership complications" in the RNS's. If you can find any reference to "ownership complications" in the RNS's relevant to the financing agreement and it's subsequent failure please quote them.

[hairballradical] 14/12/2015 11:06

Pap,

yes, that deal was proposed but never happened, another complication in the ownership / funding of Oxus. As it happened, the Uzbeks weren't a factor in the failure of this facility.

The main fctor was that the Chinese themselves didn't finalise the deal.

[kcowe] 14/12/2015 11:06

Fair assessment pap...

[papillon] 14/12/2015 10:57

Left it out, Edgein, because we haven't got such a "concrete" basis for an award as with AGF (the Chinese offer). Of course any award for Khandiza would increase my US$300m target award (for the AGF investment). A Khandiza award would be icing on the cake, as would be any punitive damages award for Uzbek threats and obfuscation, as far as I'm concerned. US$300m (minus Calunius take) is my minimum award. Anything above that is a bonus!!

[edgein] 14/12/2015 10:47

Papillon,

What value are you giving to Khandiza or did you just decide to leave it out?

Regards,
Ed.

[papillon] 14/12/2015 10:47

LONDON: 7 January 2010 - The Board of Oxus Gold plc ("Oxus" or the "Company") (OXS.L) is pleased to announce that the Company has yesterday entered into conditional agreements with a consortium of Chinese investors (the "Concert Party") to invest and arrange financing in a total aggregate amount of approximately US$185 million ("Financing").

Under the terms of the Financing, members of the Concert Party will make an investment in Oxus of approximately US$85 million by way of the issue of new Ordinary Shares in the Company and convertible loan notes. In addition, members of the Concert Party will be granted warrants to subscribe for new Ordinary Shares in the Company exercisable within five years of Admission for approximately US$20 million in return for an undertaking to arrange a further minimum of $80 million in project finance.

If all the Concert Party's convertible loan notes and warrants are exercised and the Company issues no further new shares, and no existing convertible loan notes, options or warrants are converted or exercised, the Concert Party's equity holding in the Company would represent 72.0% of the share capital of the Company as enlarged by the Financing.

LONDON: 9 June 2010 - Oxus Gold plc ("Oxus" or the "Company") refers to its announcement of 7 January 2010 in which it confirmed that it had signed a conditional agreement with a consortium of Chinese investors comprising of Baiyin Non-Ferrous Group Co Ltd ("Baiyin"), CITIC Construction Co Ltd ("CITIC"), and Chang Xin Yuan Su (Tianjin) Equity Investment Fund Management LP to invest and arrange financing in a total aggregate amount of up to approximately $185 million (the "Agreement").

The financing was conditional on the signing of a Foreign Investment Agreement ("FIA") with the Uzbekistan Government by 30 June 2010 and receipt of the customary approvals from the Government of the People's Republic of China (the "Chinese Government") and admission of the new Ordinary Shares to trading on AIM by 31 December 2010. If the FIA had not been executed by 30 June 2010 then both the Company and the consortium would have been entitled to withdraw from the Agreement.

17 November 2010

As announced by Oxus Gold plc ("Oxus" or the "Company") on 9 June 2010, the financing agreement with the consortium of Chinese investors ("Consortium") was amended so that completion of the financing is conditional only upon receipt of the regulatory approvals from the Chinese Government and admission of the new ordinary shares to trading on AIM by 31 December 2010.



Further to the announcement dated 9 June 2010, the Company can confirm that it has been informed that the most critical of the approvals necessary to give effect to the financing has been granted by the relevant Chinese authority, while the other two largely administrative approvals are also being processed without any known issues.

Lapse of Financing Agreement

30 December 2010

Further to the announcements dated 9 June 2010 and 17 November 2010, Oxus Gold was today advised that the further approvals necessary to give effect to the financing agreement between the Company and a consortium of Chinese investors (the "Consortium") will not be granted by 31 December 2010. Accordingly, the financing agreement between the Company and the Consortium will lapse on 31 December 2010.



In the event that the Consortium and Oxus Gold enter into a new proposed financing agreement after 31 December 2010, such agreement would likely be subject to the agreement of the Takeover Panel and the approval of the Company's shareholders at a general meeting.



The Board of Oxus Gold will continue to pursue a financing agreement with the Consortium to provide sufficient debt and equity funding to allow the Company to finance and develop the 50% owned Amantaytau Goldfields ("AGF") joint venture in Uzbekistan, including the expansion of AGF's existing open pit heap leach mining operations, the development of one or more underground mines and an accelerated exploration programme. However, the Company will also explore opportunities with other third parties to provide funding for the development of the Company's assets.

[papillon] 14/12/2015 10:32

"this is a very complex case just on ownership alone"

Yet during 2010, hbr, a Chinese consortium was prepared to pay US$185m for 72% of OXS's 50% of the AGF JV. That deal NEVER fell through because of any doubts over OXS's ownership according to OXS.

PS I'm basing my target OXS sp, following the arbitration verdict, on that offer from Chinese investors. I'm scaling that 72% up to 100% plus interest to arrive at a figure of US$300m. Calunius's fee has then to be subtracted from that US$300m. OXS might get more than US$300m, in the form of punitive damages, because of the threats they were subjected to by the Uzbeks.

[hairballradical] 14/12/2015 10:13

GS,

thanks for reviewing past reports. I got my $32m from 2006 report which identifies as an asset 'Construction of mine' at $32m in Note 10 P27/40. After this, operations kicked in and both profits and losses were made. This is where it becomes difficult to see just what has been spent as deferred costs are referred to. That very year Oxus changed accounting practice too, from GAAP to IFRS. As a guess and with unjustified taxes I'd estimate in the region of $50m.

Its a very murky business with the loans to the joint venture and 'arms-length' agreements where joint-directorships of subcontractors are concerned(MAED)and as you rightly say it gets even messier once Zeromax get involved.

If anyone is in any doubt, this is a very complex case just on ownership alone let alone valuation of a variably priced asset. The foregone conclusion by many on here that the case against OXUS can't now be kicked out is rubbish. As much I would lose by that, it has to be said.

[heaven above] 14/12/2015 10:00

can anyone please supply the link to the arbitration website?

thank you

[maytrees] 14/12/2015 09:35

Again from an earlier post someone signified that the delay in the arbitration result was not especially long for these arbitrators. I had previously posted that the delay could signify a success for OXS and be caused by working out the sums owed.

However I think the poster went on to signify that one could more reasonably argue that the delay was unreasonable if there is still no result until the new year.

It's all idle speculation of course but imho some of the delay is being caused by difficulties for the arbitrators in working out the sums involved - But dyor.

[kcowe] 14/12/2015 09:16

Will GS still post the days when we are into three figures lol.... only 25 more days to go, till the magical 100 days have passed.

[kcowe] 14/12/2015 08:56

The very near term is becoming more laughable by the day......

[1zabrina] 14/12/2015 08:45

2thumbs up for saying good morning? weird.

[giant steps] 14/12/2015 08:31

Good morning maytrees

[maytrees] 14/12/2015 08:23

Good morning GS and all

Donpatrol's comments above that:

"These pipedreams are an Industry in itself" - sadly could be applied to many AIM listed companies these days imho.

However unless the public info out there for scrutiny by prospective OXS investors, is seriously misleading, the poster on here who recently put the odds in favour of OXS winning the arbitration, if my recollection is correct, at c. 80% seems about right to me.

[the stigologist] 14/12/2015 08:09

Awaiting Merits and Quantum



* Oxus Gold vs Republic of Uzbekistan for alleged expropriation of assets

* Legal funding Calunius on No Win No Fee basis

* Arbitration started 31 August 2011

* May 2014 arbitration hearing completed (see RNS 19 May 2014)
* Claim Range $489m to $1250m (Nov 2012)

[giant steps] 14/12/2015 08:08

+75 days, ho ho ho !

[giant steps] 14/12/2015 08:05

#Reminder for HBR
#note4gs



Giant Steps - 02 Feb 2014 - 20:03:48 - 4727 of 30282
wrmj00, that's a good question - we should try to piece it together.

Here's a start.


Pre 2001 - in private mode had raised $35m for development.

04JUL2001 - listing on AIM raised £8m (26.6 million shares at 30p)


03APR2002 - next up we plan for gold mine construction Phase I AGF $42.5m


By Jan 2003 AGF Phase I revised plan is $30m

02APR2003 - preproduction capital costs phase set at $29.9m (via loans)

Standard Bank London Limited and WestLB AG, with Societe Generale
acting as security agent, and consists of a $30 million senior term loan plus a
$6 million cost overrun facility.


26AUG2003 - on target for 1st production Dec 2013

"
Within the first year of production the carbon in pulp gold plant will produce
approximately 200,000 ounces of gold at a cash cost of US$106 per ounce, and is
expected to generate cash flows of at least US$22 million to Oxus.
"

15SEP2003 - Planned demerger of Khandiza assets (to Marakand)


9OCT2003 - Marakand Raises £4m = $6.6m (20m @ 20p)

5JAN2004 - AGF into production !

Oxus CEO Bill Trew said today that this was a momentous occasion in the life of
Oxus. 'This is an enormous accomplishment for the team at Amantaytau, who have
worked tirelessly to bring this low-risk, low-cost project into production in
record time. I would like to congratulate the team and our Uzbek partners on
this significant achievement'.

14APR2004 - Decision to fast track Vysokovoltnoye Silver Project at AGF
$5 million project, secured by Uzbek corporate bond sept 2004.

"funded out of cash flow generated by the Amantaytau Oxide project"

19SEP2005 Production starts at Vysokovoltnoye

Confirmed capital cost of the project was $9.1 million

20SEP2005 Preproduction Capex $88m for Phase II AGF
AGF Sulphides Project Feasibility Study Completed and Construction Starts
Pre-production CAPEX is estimated at $88 million.

At a gold price of $450 per ounce and using a 10% discount rate, the feasibility
study gives a project NPV of $188.8 million (ungeared), and an IRR of 117.2%.

[ one can see why Oxus had hit the jackpot of mining projects ]

12OCT2005 Oxus pours first silver from Vysokovoltnoye


09NOV2005 Significant milestone, Oxus Gold now an unhedged gold producer

"AGF was originally required to hedge 263,096 ounces as a condition precedent to
drawdown on the $35 million project finance facility. This facility was repaid
to the lending banks in August 2005" - well done Oxus

10OCT 2006 Interim results ending June 2006
"Amantaytau Goldfields ('AGF') reports $11.29 million profit for the six
month period to 30 June 2006 and $20.33 million profit for the year"


02NOV2006 AGF Update - $224 million in taxes, fines and penalties (unbelievable)

"Oxus Gold plc reports that it has received assurances from its Uzbek partners in
its Amantaytau Goldfields (AGF) joint venture that the Government of the Republic
of Uzbekistan is not targeting AGF for expropriation.

(recall in August 2006 the regime were already about to grab MKD Khandiza )

Now it gets messy for many reasons

30NOV2006 - Zeromax invest £12m, 57m @ 21.5p for 16.1%


02JAN2007 $208 million taxes/fines are no longer payable


20FEB2007 $224m NOT payable (charges dropped), AGF liable for $1m only


A comment in the 2007 finals, 22nd October 2007
"
This has been a very challenging period for the Group during which time it faced
unprecedented interruptions to AGF's operations in Uzbekistan due to a
disruptive tax audit, the financial impact of the loss of certain tax
privileges, and the impact of a number of legal issues which were both costly
and time consuming.
"

[kcowe] 14/12/2015 07:55

11 months of pipe dreams yet to go then lol....

[donpatrol] 14/12/2015 07:47

They have no need to worry, 100k per month Guaranteed to keep them in gravy. These pipedreams are an Industry in itself

[lithological heterogeneities] 14/12/2015 07:13

Nothing again so far...yet again.This is now looking like we will still be waiting in 2016.