Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[apfindley] 15/12/2015 16:54

Pap.Why on earth would Oxus of incurred debt on AGF????The Chinese were going to pump in $185million.That would pay for the development from mine building to production.I fail to see where these debts would've come from that you're harping on about.Just admit, you're making it up and lying just appear negative.Or were we going to accept $185million and then suddenly realise we needed a payday loan fir the Christmas office party.?

[soul limbo] 15/12/2015 16:52

but I agree with papillon, holders of OXS should expect the least possible valuation of any award.

[soul limbo] 15/12/2015 16:51

CEY have never had to resort to debt. From exploration to production, the funding was via equity issues. Obviously it helped that they struck it big first time round. So investors were happy to fund their development.

Shares came to the market at 6p over a decade ago.

[heaven above] 15/12/2015 16:48

Don't lose sight of the fact that as a shareholder, that gold in the ground in Uzbek belongs to YOU. Don't sell yourself short by accepting a pitiful 15p a share.

30p is more like it.

[papillon] 15/12/2015 16:45

Ok, Soul Limbo. I don't follow CEY. However I presume they must have had large CAPEX requirements at one time and resorted to debt to finance that CAPEX or was it all done via share placements and hence share dilution?

[heaven above] 15/12/2015 16:37

my gut instinct say award of $480m + various costs/interest

[soul limbo] 15/12/2015 16:35

CEY is debt free

[papillon] 15/12/2015 16:32

LOL heaven above. I don't follow POG, but I presume they own 100% of their gold assets. OXS only had 50% of AGF. That would give a 13.5p sp!! Who's to know whether AGF would have performed better, or worse, than POG? Both operate in what was the old Soviet Union.

As I've posted many times before 15-20p would satisfy me. Anything above that, in my estimation, is pie in the sky, BUT WOULD BE MOST WELCOME. Setting ones sights low means you are less disappointed if results don't come up to scratch, BUT OVER THE MOON if the results surpass your expectations! I've seen too many fantasist dreamers posting on these bb's over the years. 99 times out of a 100 their fantasises fail to materialise.

[heaven above] 15/12/2015 16:20

lol papillion - POG has a market cap of 214m and net debt of $675m

therefore even as you put it 'floundered, like POG,' that still equates to 27p in OXS market cap terms today and remember we have had lot of dilution of our own over the last 4 years and that is the bear case not the bull case

but we were denied the chance by the uzbeks

[papillon] 15/12/2015 16:13

AGF WOULD have had debt, heavon above, because of the huge CAPEX requirements. Whether AGF/OXS could have coped with and prospered with a debt burden, like CEY have, or have floundered, like POG, I have no idea. I suppose luck and quality of management are key to whether any gold miner is successful, or not.

I was wrong. You were correct. CEY has a PE of circa 13.

Anyway I'm more than happy to base my target award on the Chinese offer of US$185m for 72% of OXS. Even a 10p OXS share price after the verdict would mean a tripling of my investment on OXS. I'd be content with that rate of return in around a year. Though I'd be over the Moon with a better rate of return!

[westmoreland lad] 15/12/2015 16:13

Cheers Wally. Well said !!

[slong] 15/12/2015 16:12

I think if Richard is reading this, he has plenty of time to field calls from concerned investors. It may be a ball ache, but he has bought this on himself by giving the suggestion that news is iminent, and at least he has the consolation that he himself knows alot more than is in the public domain. But, I do agree we should wish him a Merry Christmas!

[wallyjumblat] 15/12/2015 16:04

From the dark side, hope they don't mind me posting this.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

"I phoned up for an update.

RS answered the phone and was offhand from the word go. He stands by his comment and says all RNS's are vetted and the v near future statement was made on advice of his lawyers.

He is clearly annoyed that he has taken flack on the bb's."

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I wish people would just leave him alone now, imagine the Pressure this Guy has endured, Staff in Prison, Company Stolen, years of waiting for justice, and through all of this has kept his head up and worked tirelessly for all shareholders, and remember he is aligned with us, he wants what we want. So FFS if you are going to contact him wish him Merry Xmas and say thanks for getting us this far.

Richard if you are reading this THANK YOU, and Merry Xmas to you,your family and all staff at the Ox.

[heaven above] 15/12/2015 16:01

personally i feel a fair price for the equity of OXS is between 15p and 20p

so at least we agree on something

[heaven above] 15/12/2015 15:59

papillion - yes you're correct

had OXS been mining 300k ozs of gold at present date we could have $675m of debt and a market cap of £214m or 27p a share - like POG

with new discoveries and future growth to come

r u getting it yet?

[papillon] 15/12/2015 15:48

wulber? Filtered. You're away with the fairies. A fantasist. How many of your previous fantasises have become reality?

[lithological heterogeneities] 15/12/2015 15:35

"end of 2014"+"in the very near future"

come on OXS, before Christmas please.

[99jeremiah] 15/12/2015 15:14

The p/e ratios back in 2011 were probably much higher than nowadays. I seem to remember a few at 20 or more as the sector was booming due to the QE. Some were talking of $5000/oz gold.

[heaven above] 15/12/2015 15:12

papillion wrote:

"You quote a possible PE figure of 10 if AGF were producing 300K ozs pa. Quote me a large gold producer listed on the LSE with a PE anywhere near approaching 10."

--------------------------------------------------------------


CEY





pe 12.75 as stated by advfn

[dave444] 15/12/2015 15:11

$552m - $1.25bn plus interest!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[heaven above] 15/12/2015 15:09

papillion

pog has net debt as of 30th sept of $675m so you have to add that on to the market cap you stated to arrive at the current enterprise value.

OXS is debt free

schoolboy error but we forgive you

[wulber] 15/12/2015 15:05

I'm thinking $300-$500mn, but it's all conjecture until we get news.

DCF - country risk premium = OXS award, simple!