Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 02/2/2023 10:13

bishan bedi - The B of E website says Q.T. started last month. They are selling about £3bn+ of gilts each month until March. When the extra bond supply pushes up interest rates enough to tempt them, it's mostly bought by banks and financials, draining money from other lending and investment in the financial system, so artifically pushing up the interest rates on those, too. (Loans should get more expensive and other bonds/shares fall.) £3bn+ per month equates to nearly 0.1% per month of M3.



The effects on money supply might be seen in numbers linked to below. M0 has been falling modestly but significantly (for the first time ever) for the best part of a year. This is deflation but what does it mean in the real world? Normally, it should lead to falling Sterling prices (all else being equal) if it was widespread over all forms of wider money. M1-M3 seem to have a spike where the B of E bought £19bn of gilts in the Truss tantrum and then sold them all back into the market again, ending 3 weeks ago with a £4bn profit. (That's nearly £4bn withdrawn from the financial system or about 0.1% of M3.) All 4 money measures have fallen during this £23bn resale without Q.T. I think the coming numbers with Q.T. will be interesting but I'm not sure how significant they will be for the real economy.

[dr biotech] 02/2/2023 09:57

How are you feeling Wllm?

£600 from ERNIE today from 4 winners. I guess with the new rate we need to win £100 or so a month to achieve the "average" prize so thats decent.

[bishan bedi] 02/2/2023 09:23

Aleman, thank you for your detailed 78721. I appreciate your analysis and view of the situation.

QE has indeed distorted things and if the BoE are now embarking on their long promised QT (I am unable to find any data on the extent of this or if it has even happened yet, but I am sure they were supposed to start late last year) I would expect this to have the opposite effect!

Today's decision and reaction will be interesting, it seems the world and his dog want 0% or 0.25% but perhaps Bailey and co are worried about a weak £ and inflation in commodities; the UK does seem to have experienced higher for longer inflation than elsewhere from the stats I see.

All the best

[wllmherk] 02/2/2023 09:14

Same here regarding the state of the roads, there was a news item the other night regarding the Council simply ignoring damage claims from motorists whose cars have been damaged by potholes. In my view this is deliberate, they don't want us driving.

wllm :)

[skinny] 02/2/2023 08:49

I've just checked - the last response was on 9th January, where status was changed to "investigating".

That sounds like a job that I could do!

[mrphil] 02/2/2023 08:35

It's frustrating when you see them spend millions reducing the traffic flow on a roundabout by adding traffic lights at all the approach roads and on the actual roundabout when it was actually flowing fine before!

I see the £ is now at it's lowest against the Euro since the end of September, barely 1.12 at the moment.

[skinny] 02/2/2023 08:27

We have the same thing locally with a mini roundabout, which has been disintegrating since the December snow.

Its impossible to avoid the holes and edges as it is a busy junction and a bit of a free for all in the rush hour.

I've reported it 3 times now and just get the standard blah blah reply.

[mrphil] 02/2/2023 08:23

Morning All.

Talking about "experts repeatedly spouting theory" we are having a battle around here at the moment trying to get some stupid road humps either repaired or removed (some hope on the second one) as they are falling to bits leaving sharp vertical walls which are causing havoc to tyres, suspension AND road safety. The local councillor says we are all "idiots" if we try and drive around them but would you drive straight over a wooden pallet if it was in the road - pretty much the same result!

[aleman] 02/2/2023 08:12

Good morning.

Thanks, Skinny. I would say that the only new thing there to me is driving instuctors complaining of higher fuel consumption with E10 when 1% or so theoretical difference should not be noticeable. Otherwise, it's just another article reciting that there should not be much difference IN THEORY . But theory and practice are sometimes different. Some driving instructors, racing car drivers and myself are finding a significant difference. The classic car racing community have dropped E10 due build up of green deposits. I still check consumption at every fill and still get 10-12% lower fuel consumption in the big car and 5-8% lower in the small car on the rare occasions I get forced to use it. This means E10 is not greener if most other cars are the same, though they might not be. Some people tell me they can't tell the difference. Mrs A hates filling the small car up more than once a week but has to with E10. There clearly IS a significant difference in performance in some vehicles. I suggest everybody monitor their fuel consumption with brimmed tanks at each fill and occasionally switch fuels rather than listen to "experts" repeatedly spout THEORY.

[skinny] 02/2/2023 07:10

Good Morning.

Another cloudy day forecast @11C.

Aleman - you might find this interesting :-

[aleman] 01/2/2023 23:02

In a change from doom and gloom (er... possibly), the Bantams have, I think, shifted out 7 players and brought in 6? Gone are three regular starters and 2 regular subs. Two arrivals look likely to be starters but have been on the treatment table all season. The possible starters that have played so far did not look like upgrades but also did not look fit! Apparently we have a late one that has already been pending 24 hours past the deadline for the EFL to ratify.

I don't think changing this many players mid-season is a good sign. It's getting a mixed to pessimistic response from fans but we've been let down so many times in the last 8 years that I think a jaded view is to be expected.

[aleman] 01/2/2023 21:21

Gold hit £1579.50. The old high was fleetingly £1582.87. That was Truss's mini bond crisis before the B of E stepped in, and the £ is stronger now.

[aleman] 01/2/2023 21:12

Nasdaq +3.5%. Stupid reaction. 30 years are -0.08% so the yield curve just got even more inverted. Fed Funds +0.25% and longs drop 0.08% so the yield curve got more inverted by 0.33% today. Things just got much worse - not better. A 30-year yield of 3.5%+ would normally suggest an overnight rate around 1.5-2%. US Fed Funds is now about 2% too high. The Fed is getting way behind the curve and needs to normalise.

[aleman] 01/2/2023 20:48

VIX has slumped, suggesting good news, yet gold has jumped, suggesting bad news. It's not just a $ exchange rate thing. It's jumped in Sterling, too, in which it tried - but failed - to hit a new high.

[kiwi2007] 01/2/2023 20:03

Fed Chair Powell was more optimistic on the outlook for inflation, saying: "We can now say for the first time that the disinflationary process has started."

These comments sent stocks higher on Wednesday.

[aleman] 01/2/2023 19:54

Dow just jumped over 500 points in 20 minutes. Somebody has said something. It coincides with the Fed press conference?

Nasdaq jumped 2.5% in 20 minutes.

[philanderer] 01/2/2023 18:16

Portfolio +0.16% ,some overseas earners were hit AAL, AZN, RIO, RKT, VOD...... gainers MKS, RS1, SMIN and VSVS.

Sainsbury's this morning , very quiet and the roads were deserted. No brocolli or swede. Cheese prices still going up.

Sunny this morning but clouded over lunchtime and with that westerly it felt cold, 10C

Our road is still closed. The hole they dug goes two thirds across. They've filled it with concrete to about nine inches from the top, much too deep still to just fill with tarmac. So I guess they're going to fill it up with hoggin before the tarmac goes on. Nobody working on it today but the leak has definitely been fixed.

Liver and onions later :-)

[skinny] 01/2/2023 18:13

I finished up £43.93.

Curry tonight with the last of my fresh naga chillies.

[deanforester] 01/2/2023 17:39

I'm down -0.170% on the day today (FTSE100 -0.136%).

Worst falls: AZN -2.93%, WDS -2.48% and VOD -2.08%.

Best rises: SGRO +2.38%, TW. +1.19% and S32 +1.15%.

Neither GSK nor VOD got much help from their reports today. Will SHEL do better tomorrow?

I had a vegetarian haggis for lunch today. Not free range, I'm told. Not enough leg meat in for me, but very tasty. Followed that with a visit to the dental hygienist.

+2°C this morning with a bit of a westerly breeze. Worth putting a scarf on.

DF

[dr biotech] 01/2/2023 17:36

Mixed bag for me to. UKCM announced a 20% drop in their commercial property NAV for just the last quarter. They were my biggest fallers along with AV. Mtec up 22% biggest value gainer but my holding is small.

[aleman] 01/2/2023 17:25

Mixed bag. +0.2%.

A disappointingly grey day after a sunny start. The wind made it feel chilly despite the thermometer saying it wasn't. 11.0C after 5.4C.


Fedex, Rivian, Cyrian and Splunk announced staff cuts in US so far today. How can the Fed think the labour market is strong when we're getting 3-6 companies announcing job losses each day? (Plenty of time left so I can see it beating 6 today.)

Job losses seem to be growing everywhere. They;ve stepped up a level in the UK since I last looked here a couple of months ago.

[blueliner] 01/2/2023 16:58

-£135 folio, [FTSE All-Share -0.07%]

BHP, WDS, RIO, (accident prone) fallers.

SCLP, BERI, INVP, gainers.
Disappointing, weather too, max 9C became overcast.

[mrphil] 01/2/2023 16:57

Well my lot swung back again to end just about evens at -£70 with CURY, IPF & INVP all putting in a good performance, albeit not quite enough for a positive result.

Monthly classic car N&N this evening and they are incorporating a quiz night which I am not really a fan of to be honest, but let's see how we go.

[mrphil] 01/2/2023 16:00

Love seeing all the deer around but they are a bit of a pest with the plants and crops, and they do taste nice! 😁

What's happened to the market, I was nearly £2K up last time I looked and now £1.5K down!

At least CURY is having a good day, must have seen the order I am placing for the new washing machine!