Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 09/2/2023 10:39

I'd say you were correct. DEC was weak for several days. SOS saw a few large sells before the close the day before.


Unilever expect rises in their input costs to subside in H2:

We expect cost inflation to continue in 2023. Our expectation for net material inflation (NMI) in the first half of 2023 is around €1.5 billion. We anticipate significantly lower NMI in the second half, with a wide range of possible outcomes, though we do not expect cost deflation.

[dr biotech] 09/2/2023 10:29

Without looking I’d guess both SOS and DEC have both been weak in the few days leading up to their respective raises? Always seems to be a bit of forward selling and us retail punters are the last to know.

Quite a few companies use primary bid which allows more access to PIs than placing. I’ve kept a theoretical portfolio of the companies that have used this to raise money (excluded bonds and trusts) it’s currently down around 12%. 3 decent winners and 6 big losers

[aleman] 09/2/2023 10:04

Amid some adjustments to the index and alterations to the energy price regime, delayed German inflation comes in below forecasts for January.



How many times does inflation have to come in lower than forecasts before central bankers realise their forecasts were too high and policy reponses too tight? Bond markets continue to suggest rate cuts to come. Reductions of more than 1 x 0.25% are indicated for later this year even if base rate does not rise. Maybe 3.25-3.5% at end 2023, 3% 2024 and settling around 2.5-2.75% 2025 onwards. This could be taken as good news if central bankers were not still talking of more rate rises.

[aleman] 09/2/2023 09:47

Good news! Bellway and Redrow both report a significant pick up in new house reservations since New Year. Redrow up to 0.51 per site per week in the last 5 weeks, from 0.38 in Jul-Dec. Here's Bellway's comment:

The private reservation rate reduced to 91 per week (2022 - 162), with the weakest demand experienced in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2022, when the private reservation rate was down by 60%. This was followed by a modest increase in the private reservation rate in January 2023 to 107 per week (January 2022 - 195). The reservation rate sequentially improved throughout each week in January 2023, reflecting both a seasonal pick-up, and some easing of affordability pressures, as both wage rises and the recent fall in mortgage rates began to take effect.

[aleman] 09/2/2023 09:31

It turns out there is a very light frost everywhere but the sun is much stronger today. The temperature is shooting up in the house. I can see me opening the windows.

EU gas reserves at 69%, despite recent cold weather in central and eastern Europe, and looking set to finish the season around 55%+, compared to last year's 25%. It's odd that the price of gas is not yet near historic lows (like the US) with EU reserves at record highs and new import capacity coming on stream into considerably reduced demand. It's worrying that energy specialists, economists, governments, etc. were so far off the mark with their predictions last autumn and forced out loads of interventions that have distorted markets and caused a mini bond crisis. And why are domestic consumers not being informed of likely price reductions in the pipeline?




We got another large overestimate on our February bill after a physical reading showed them they had overestimated previously. Are they a bit dim or just deliberately trying to get us to hand over cash too early?

[aleman] 09/2/2023 08:07

Zacks has Q1 going from -7.2% to -7.5% and 2023 from +0.1% to 0.0%. 2024 goes from 10.5% to 10.8%. So I suppose it all turns on the predicted recovery in 2024 but current momentum remains significantly down before then.






Can now buy DEC at 1p above fundraising in the market. I'll struggle to finish up today. Why do small fundraisings (for both DEC and SOS) still drive the price down to whatever the fundraising price is?

[aleman] 09/2/2023 07:42

Good morning. Colder than predicted again and we have light frost in high surfaces.

I see the small DEC retail offer (0.3% of market cap) was notified after the market closed here and the time limit for applications had already passed before the market opened today. (Edit - it looks to have been open for 1 hour and 45 minutes from publishing. ) How can this possibly be fair? The SOS retail offer is also very small - such that scaling back might make it pointless - but runs for a few days, at least.

[malcolm caton] 09/2/2023 07:38

Morning.

Frost free today.

I;m out of date with drink prices,at that rate Skinny I will give it a miss,Esp as our villagep ub has closed,some talk of trying to make it a community owned asset.

[skinny] 09/2/2023 07:18

Good Morning.

We had a lovely day at Kew and in particular, the Orchid show - I did however feel the 3 members of staff that I spoke did, knew very little about their subject!

In a first, I paid over £30 for 2 pints of beer and 2 medium glasses of white wine in the pub at Kew station.

I'm not quite sure what happened with AFC after the strong rise on Tuesday and my sale of BP had the effect of sending them 3% higher.


I finished up 0.27%.

[philanderer] 09/2/2023 00:16

DF , re fall in SMDS wednesday...... Market report from Daily Mail.


Paper-based packaging firm Smurfit Kappa took a hit after it said demand had weakened and customers reduced their stock.

The group’s box volumes fell 2 per cent in the UK and Germany last year.

It was not all doom and gloom, however, with group revenues up 27 per cent to £11.4billion while profit jumped 42 per cent to nearly £1.1billion.

But the firm’s shares fell 3.3 per cent, or 115p, to 3373p. The slump filtered through the sector, with DS Smith down 4 per cent, or 14.7p, to 350p while Mondi was down by 2.3 per cent, or 35.5p, to 1520.5p.

[aleman] 08/2/2023 21:51

Capri Holdings (Versace/Khors/Choo) slumped 27% on weak revenue, a 21% rise in stocks since the sam equarter last year, and poor guidance on margins (halving in Q4, presumably with sales needed to shift excess stock). All global regions looked weaker in Q4. Lots more US companies gave weak guidance today. Most companies do not give guidance so are only small proportion having forecasts reduced while some others will produce shock results when they come?

When are markets going to sit up and take notice of this endless string of poor results and market consensus earnings constantly being revised down?

[malcolm caton] 08/2/2023 18:58

Our Gp In my long ago youth used to have his main surgery in his house,and once a week held a surgery in the next village in the Saloon bar of the Pub,As well as doing House Calls.

[carpingtris] 08/2/2023 18:39

When was younger I knew GP by name and they did house calls... what went wrong??

[carpingtris] 08/2/2023 18:37

Tried to contact GP yesterday through askGP which they offer on website.. which is a very poor website BTW very outdated looking.

No luck as service was off due to reaching max capacity.

Tried again today to no avail.. so called for appointment and got told they use same service and couldn't make appointment as all slots filled was instead told to call 8.30am if lucky might get a slot!! ffs they don't want people at hospital but you cannot get to see GP!

Luckily I'm not in super pain but having a nagging pain under left ribs area.. I'm not one for troubling a GP but must say service is diabolical regarding getting to see one.. don't be ill at weekends no chance!

[mrphil] 08/2/2023 17:57

Was having a good day until late on and then ended down -0.05% with AFC, CSN & NG. doing the most damage.

Completed management accounts for January and been trying to work out why we have made more money than expected and it looks like we have finally tracked down a funny quirk with the computer system which would only show itself under vary rare circumstances. One more thing to check in the morning but I think we have sussed it!

At a business seminar first thing tomorrow then off to the dentist for crown preparation work so won't be around until after lunch.

[aleman] 08/2/2023 17:51

I suspect SOS could turn out to be a buying opportunity and, if you want to increase your holding, you might be better off buying in the market as the very small retail offer looks likely to be well oversubscribed. However, I am not qualified to give financial advice so DYOR.

DEC just announced a remarkably similar modest placing and bookbuild to SOS's, though for an acquisition that looks likely to improve future numbers at first glance. Not a massive holding, though.

[blueliner] 08/2/2023 17:44

+0.17% folio, [FTSE All-Share +0.3%}

IGR, VTU, BERI, HICL, PLUS, BT., risers. Cinch/Constellation taken a stake in VTU,
also HICL, PLUS rebounding from earlier in week.

SOS -15% ouch! Capital raising, I presume will hear from HL re 22p retail offer. Intend to up my small stake.

Not quite wall to wall again, frosty areas remain where fields shaded by woods.

[dr biotech] 08/2/2023 17:34

+0.3% Feel I'm underperforming the relevant indices (250/AIM)

MRL/CTO biggest losers, BGO biggest value gainer but not huge. Bought some DOTD which was tipped last month. Looking to sell 3 or 4 of the companies I've lost faith in, and find a similar number of new ones over the next few months.

Took alcoholic neighbour to Tescos - much better to do it in the morning before the first bottle has been opened. Said she needed to get her husband something for dinner. Microwave sausage and mash with gin gravy it is.

[malcolm caton] 08/2/2023 17:22

Fell back after USA opened
.
Ended Up 0.43% Best riser BP. worst faller SMDS,

We had a sunny day but the frost still remained in the shady parts of the garden.

[philanderer] 08/2/2023 17:08

Portfolio -0.1% , spoiled by PZC -9% on results . AAL and RS1 the other major fallers. Gainers VID, BP and AZN.

Sainsbury's this morning, fairly busy . Tinned soup and cheese still going through the roof. Couldn't spot anything that was coming down in price.

Lovely sunny day, bitterly cold, 6C at best.

Getting the wok out later :-)

[aleman] 08/2/2023 17:07

-1.1%. Not so bad I suppose after an exceptional -15% from SOS. Ironically, I think it is probably good news for the medium term that they have opportunities lined up that are likely to need significant money spending on new stock. Time will tell.

I removed the punctured tube before I realised I'd not been given the one I specified (chatting too much) so back to the bike shop on the older bike tomorrow for a swap, weather permitting.

Sunny all day but always a bit watery. Pleasant enough in the middle of the day and great to see the first few crocuses adding a bit of colour. Even a few daffodils are forming heads and odd ones are showing a yellow tinge so will see them blossom soon. It felt more like a chilly spring day than a warm winter one, if that makes sense. Winter cherries are still not in flower yet - possibly the latest since we moved here, I think? Magnolias seem well confused - leaf buds have been stuck at part burst for weeks. 8.9C after 0.7C.

[mrphil] 08/2/2023 16:03

Weather has been lovely for the last few days but below freezing at night and I think we've seen 5°C today but clear blue skies. Been generating over 10kW of solar each day at home from my 10 older style panels. Our system is just 2.32kW and a neighbour has just had 19 of the latest panels installed so I am guessing that must be around 7.6kW which should generate at least 40kW on a decent summer day as we manage about 15kW! So that's four houses in our little close of 17 that now have solar and I reckon today we will collectively generate around 80kW with a fair amount of that going back into the grid. There really shouldn't be any need to worry about the grid getting overloaded if everyone that can get solar does so.

[aleman] 08/2/2023 15:32

I did not realise how cold it's been in the South since it's been edging warmer here. Some places in the South averaged less than 0C over the last 24 hours.

h ttps://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03658&ano=2023&mes=2&day=8&hora=14&min=0&ndays=30

[mrphil] 08/2/2023 14:36

Wondering whether to take profits on SBRY and TATE as both are now well up for me. SBRY has a decent divi so will probably keep them but not so sure about TATE.