Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 01/2/2023 14:40

Skinny, I'd eat that, with chunky chips :-)

[freddie ferret] 01/2/2023 14:40

Aleman.

We have a long way to go before house prices get back to where they were five years ago let alone ten.
In the meantime equities will probably outperform.

[skinny] 01/2/2023 14:26

I missed your post Malcolm - this may be of interest :-

[philanderer] 01/2/2023 14:23

malcolm, I bet that was quite a sight :-)

[skinny] 01/2/2023 13:17

Grey and windy here now!

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 106K 176K 235K

[aleman] 01/2/2023 12:09

Factset's weekly earnings update - with 29% of companies reported so far in a "continuingly subpar" Q4 S&P500 reporting season, 19 have issued guidance for Q1 of which 2 issued positive guidance and 17 issued negative guidance.

[aleman] 01/2/2023 11:29

Oh, deer.



Euro area CPI change in last 3 months -0.1%, -0.4%, -0.4%. It keeps coming in lower than forecasts. So last quarter annualised is -3.6%. What was the target again?

[malcolm caton] 01/2/2023 10:31

I'm going to have to repair/replace fencing before veg gardening starts.Muntjac calmly walking round the garden this am

[mrphil] 01/2/2023 10:09

UK Manufacturing PMI 47 for January apparently, with output and new orders falling? Happy we're not following the trend then, our new orders for January were +111% against last January!

[philanderer] 01/2/2023 10:06

Morning everyone.

Sunny, blue skies.

Miners not looking too good.

[malcolm caton] 01/2/2023 09:49

Morning,
A sunny start here also.
Portfolio blue but held back by RIO,WDS

[skinny] 01/2/2023 09:43

Good Morning, a sunny start with a high of 10C forecast.

[aleman] 01/2/2023 09:08

Good morning. I've got three at home due to strikes yet their mum is at school.

Nationwide's house price index shows the average house price has fallen 5.7% in the last 6 months and the B of E still think we have an inflation problem and need higher rates!? The housing element in CPI is based on imputed rents which are still rising the way they are calculated, even though new rents in the private sector are falling.

The input price measure in the EU PMI hit a 26-month low and was below its historic average. Think about that. Goods inflation in the pipeline across the EU is lower than normal.

Looks to be a 50% cloud day out there. They seem a rarity these days. For months it feels to have been all sunny days or all grey days, with the latter predominating.

[mrphil] 01/2/2023 08:18

Morning All.

Granddaughters teacher is on strike today, so that has put out four people to sort her care out for the day not to mention yet another day of valuable schooling lost. What a totally selfish move, I'm sorry but if the job is that bad then just leave and find another job, this is just blackmail under another name. I thought they were supposed to care about the children in their care? These strikes simply prove it's all about me, me, me.

[aleman] 31/1/2023 21:33

I make it that (at least) 6 listed companies announced job losses in the US today ...

Do some people actually still think this is normal !?

[deanforester] 31/1/2023 20:14

I'm down -0.159% on the day today (FTSE100 -0.169%).

Worst falls: BT.A -2.62%, S32 -2.28% and PHP -2.18%.

Best rises: DGE +3.21%, HLN +1.08% and BATS +0.95%.

DGE has been dropping of late, nice to see a bounce back.

I needed to free some cash for my roof repairs so decided to sell Compass and MKS last Friday. Cash available today, so I used the balance to top up LGEN and TW. today. Swapping under 2% yield for over 7% is a good move in my book. About doubling the income lost .

Results season coming up. Should be interesting.

DF

[philanderer] 31/1/2023 18:39

Portfolio -0.38% , good gain for BAG with an update, followed by DGE, BATS and ULVR.... a fair few fallers AAL, AZN, NICL, SMIN, VSVS, WEIR and WIX with an update.

Lovely sunny, breezy day 12C. In the garden for most of the day doing some big bush pruning jobs with the pole cutter. Lunchtime sandwiches once again outside on the patio.

Road still closed off with no sign of anyone doing anything :-)

[skinny] 31/1/2023 18:23

I finished down 0.15%.

Some sun and a high of 11C, but with a nagging wind.

[aleman] 31/1/2023 17:53

A mixed lot, with no significant move for mine overall.

Got my car back. It seemed a very expensive job just for a new clutch but it's an engine out job and they "stripped and reassembled the gearbox" too. (Did they - not itemised - and why?) The warranty covered most of the cost up to its limit per individual claim. The young lady dealing with me seemed very defensive (again) and reluctant to show me the itemised bill going to insurers which just showed a reasonably priced clutch and a lot of labour. No mechanic could talk to me because they were all on lunch breaks - at 1.25pm. Really? Mechanics like to start early and knock off early in the main. After continued questions, she brought me the clutch and the plate had broken a thin outer strip where it retains a spring, just like a break I've seen in an online video. I'm guessing it's a manufacturer's design weakness as replacement clutches at less than 50k miles do not seem rare for this model. It was still very expensive and I'm glad I avoided paying most of it but I'm still wondering if I paid more than needed and wondering if the new clutch will be up to the job. I'm still curious how it failed under 40k miles when it spends 90% of its time cruising at 70mph and is rarely in urban traffic. Anyway, it's done and dusted at modest expense to me.


A very sunny day, with a scattering of small clouds and a brief, light shower that passed through quickly in an occasional light gale. 10.3C after 5.3C. Felt warm in the house!

[mrphil] 31/1/2023 17:46

Worst day for a while, -0.79% UU., NG. & BERI leading a raft of fallers.

That's the end of the first month of this year then!

[blueliner] 31/1/2023 17:29

-0.28% folio [FTSE All-Share -0.22%]

SCLP, IGR, MNG, UU., worst fallers.

XLM, the standout riser.

The disappointing recommended cash acquisition of K3C ( voted against) has gone through the courts, payout is due end Feb, not in a rush to reinvest so can wait to receive the full offer amount avail without AJ Bell brokers commission.

[malcolm caton] 31/1/2023 17:28

Down 0.189% on day.
best risers NANO.PETS,
Worst fallersSMIN.SNR.EQLS.DARK,RR.

ON the Week
+0.55%

YTD +4.61%

[dr biotech] 31/1/2023 16:52

Well that was a fairly miserable day - started badly, improved a bit but then fell off at the end. -0.7% Commercial property trusts were most in the red, but lots of others too. A poor end to what has been a decent month for me.

I have a lot of cash that I need to find a home for. One of my biggest holdings from last year (RPS) was taken over and that should be completed in the next few days, plus I had a lot sitting on the sidelines anyway. Will have to hunt around.

[aleman] 31/1/2023 14:52

That there is a disconnect would appear to be putting it mildly.

bishan bedi - the 1 year yield, currently 3.39% suggests a great deal of scepticism that the B of E will raise to 4%. It seems to be betting that it will only raise to 3.75% and soon need to cut. You have to allow for "time value" versus expected future bank rate. That used to add up to 2% on longs in the 80s, i.e. if base rate was expected to stay static at 3.5% indefinitely, the 1-year might yield 4.0%, 5-year 4.5%, 10-year 5% and 30-year 5.5%. This 2% premium for longs and less for shorts was a normal yield curve years ago. The extra 2% was for inconvenience of tying up money for longer and for the increased corresponding risk of holding longer - even government debt carries some risk that a central bank does not - because a central bank can always print the money it needs to pay up. The problem is, this "time value" was corrupted when QE started to weigh on the buy side, and maybe even a bit before that too. It basically shrank to nearly zero.

Now, QE is unwinding, is time value returning or not? It's harder to interpret future yields not knowing this. If the B of E were expected to raise to 4% and hold, add in time value and you might expect the 1-year yield to be 4.25% or 4.5% - and yet it yields only 3.39%! This suggests something very unusual is afoot. Do bond markets expect the B of E to have to quickly reverse again if they raise to 4% - or just 3.75% even? The 1-year yield will jump a little on confirmation of a rise this week - depending whether 0.25% or 0.5% - but it will still be well below what you'd expect for a normal curve and asking for an early cut again before the year is out - and probably rather more than 0.25%. I'd suggest the market is asking the B of E not to raise at all but to cut now. Bond markets clearly have a different outlook on inflation. (This is what an inverted curve is - a market betting on rate cuts to come, usually brought on by a significant slowdown or recession. Any rise this week will just make the market even more inverted.)

There are an increasing number of articles about the growing discrepancy between the Fed's/B of E's outlook for inflation and the bond markets'. They can't both be right. Maybe it will turn out somewhere in between and there will be some modest adjustment, or maybe one side will be right and the other will get a bit of a wake up call. I think too many economies are slowing too quickly, myself, and inflation is likely to undershoot. Inverted yield curves tend to cause economic problems in the real world. Excessive speculations often unwind disruptively - rapidly followed by large rate cuts to try stop contagion. Is this what markets are predicting?