Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/11/2018 18:10

PS. Good post Daz

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/11/2018 18:09

A lot of the big house builders are on a 'programme' of special divis - both now and going forward over the next two to three years; market conditions allowing.

I see it as a very logical thing to do, since the construction/building industry can have a complete about turn "Just like that" - T. Cooper!

[daz] 12/11/2018 13:58

The management have significant stakes in the company and you can see from its approach to acquisitions, that it's conservatively run, almost like a family business (in the good sense).
This might not mean sensational growth but it reduces the risk and as Simso highlights means they are less cyclical than you may think (though they did make a loss in 2007), which makes the shares a relatively safer hold - although still subject to weather events and a full blown recession.
Being a small construction company and having a small free float, which makes the shares illiquid, definitely holds the rating back but hopefully the track record will eventually be recognised with a higher rating in time.

Re the comments on the special dividend, I don't think anything untoward should be read into this. They just want to distribute profits to shareholders in a sustainable way. So in the good years you have extra special dividends, which might not be paid when times get harder
Providing the weather holds up, I'm looking for a final dividend of 3.5p with another special of 1p (4.5p together), with an outside chance of a 1.5p special if things go very well and the outlook post Brexit holds up.

[its the oxman] 12/11/2018 13:32

Guess it's a case of taking advantage while you can as can't see much downside from here. Could easily be tipped now as well.

[tiswas] 12/11/2018 13:16

I have not checked recently but they do not have much in the way of insti following so on days like todays it is just us retail punters topping up or selling. No great demand for the share and Pither could still be selling down on news.

[simso] 12/11/2018 12:02

Having achieved 6.9p in H1, and with Outlook for second half described as "Very Good", I hope for c 14p earnings this year. With an unleveraged Balance Sheet, the P/E is only c 5.5 times.

Looking back over the history, going back to 2007, they have been profitable in every single year...a period which includes the worst Recession in our living memory. Cash generation is excellent, and over the last 5 years we have generated an average £1.8m pa of Free Cashflow (after deducting Capex), which is a FCF yield of c 13%. Profitability is improving rather than reducing over that period.

Unreasonably cheap imho.

[meijiman] 12/11/2018 09:50

Yes I would have thought it was a three figure share price. Maybe its too off the radar?

[its the oxman] 12/11/2018 09:38

Very positive results and outlook. Must be on for at least c.13p eps and a break of 100p come full year results. Thought we might be up more today.

[royaloak] 12/11/2018 08:41

Excellent, I will maintain my policy of adding when the MM's shake the tree.

[impvesta] 12/11/2018 08:31

Gary196612 Nov '18 - 08:16 - 1108 of 1108
0 0 0
"I think you are all forgetting that they pay a special as well as the regular dividend. 4p paid for last two years but split has changed to put more emphasis on the regular dividend."

I confess I had overlooked that Gary. But I'm not sure if it is prudent to anticipate a special dividend every year, especially as "We continue to seek acquisitions of established specialist building services businesses, either in the same or complementary sectors to our current operations."

[zangdook] 12/11/2018 08:26

yes, but the point of calling it a special dividend is that it's not regular and can't be relied on. It's a bit smoke and mirrors for my taste tbh, but the impression it gives is that they do care about their reputation for rewarding shareholders.

[gary1966] 12/11/2018 08:16

I think you are all forgetting that they pay a special as well as the regular dividend. 4p paid for last two years but split has changed to put more emphasis on the regular dividend.

[this_is_me] 12/11/2018 08:11

Given that they are still actively seeking out acquisitions I would expect that they would see retaining cash rather than bumping up the dividend as more of a priority so I wouldn't think that the dividend would be more than 3.5p

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/11/2018 07:48

5p I think is rather optimistic. They don't strike me as a company that are willing to give it away (good in a way!). Unfortunately I didn't bother to leg it up to Toon for the AGM to get a better idea of the management. Still it would be a pleasant surprise!

[impvesta] 12/11/2018 07:43

Agree a cracking set of results. I would be surprised if the final dividend is as much as 5p though. Last year was 3p and it has increased by 0.5p in each of the last 3 years so my expectation is for 3.5p which would give a very healthy 4.4% yield on the current share price Tiddlers like this don't seem to re-rate very quickly but I hope today's excellent interims will give us at least a small nudge in the right direction.

[gary1966] 12/11/2018 07:19

Yes another set of very strong results with a good outlook subject to weather. Trading on a P/E of 11 based on just 6 months profit. Crazy. Confirmation that company has a progressive dividend policy and so possibly 5p this year for yield of over 6%, covered over two times.

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/11/2018 07:10

RNS.Short and very sweet!

[this_is_me] 07/11/2018 20:34

It has been as high as 90p so I am not getting too excited by a spike.

[ed_derby] 07/11/2018 16:28

Leaking results :-0
Surely not

Maybe some taking a delayed punt following news a while ago ...

i guess no news is good news sometimes? At least we know nothing is going wrong - otherwise we’d have been told !!

77p mid as i type 🙏

[jaf111] 07/11/2018 15:24

hopefully news leaking out that the results are pleasing!!!!

[its the oxman] 07/11/2018 13:48

Plenty to go for if results please. Pretty oversold still.

[daz] 07/11/2018 13:47

Yes, interim's should be out next week, although they said in the trading update operating profit was ahead of last year, some of that is due to the inclusion of H Peel for the full 6 months but nonetheless still a good outcome as the comparison was against a strong H1 last year.
If the weather holds up, they should easily beat H2 and so be ahead of last years adjusted EPS of 12.5p, so the shares look great value on a forward p/e of under 6.

[jaf111] 07/11/2018 13:35

on the move??????

Very overdue....interim results out shortly...

[this_is_me] 21/9/2018 08:01

Personally I am happy that they concentrate on running the business rather than be distracted by bothering about over paid analysts. The company is too small for institutional investment.

The eps for the current year is likely to be around what I paid for my shares and the dividend around a third of what I paid so, in my opinion, they should just keep doing what they are doing.

[graham1ty] 21/9/2018 07:31

I think things are slowly changing. They do realise they need to communicate better. They are not going to do a MELLO yet, but slowly reaching out to investors. I suspect they have had meetings with research writers, but were not sure whether the cost was worth it. They have issued four RNS in the last year all cross referring to last year’s profit, so giving as good a steer on profits as any brokers note would. They have started the shareholder newsletter, which does not include anything price sensitive, but does add some flavour.

I think they realise that NTBR has fallen into the “no news might be bad news” camp, so the share price rises on every RNS, then falls slowly until the next one. They need a general positive reputation, to dry up some of the selling, but also mean there are buyers when stock appears.

I think they do “get it” and I hope we will see a little more consideration for shareholders going forward. I think they are as frustrated as anyone that the shares cannot break out of the 70p-80p range despite all the positive news flow