Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[sharw] 09/8/2018 09:31

simso - I can't see where you get the 2.5m from and it is not 30% of the mcap which is £15m. What have HVN and RTC got to do with it - they are recruiters.

Are you on the right thread?

[buying] 09/8/2018 08:31

Marked down due to ex dividend day

[simso] 09/8/2018 08:19

This does look increasingly like a sitting duck for acquisition. The business is owed c£2.5m more than in owes, so has a positive net working capital balance of £2.5m, equating to c30% of the Market Cap. HVN has a negative net working capital balance of -£5m.

Even if an Aquirer paid £12m, 50% more than the current price, it would be getting:

1) £2.5m of Net Working Capital,as the business is owed £2.5m more than it owes in total (HVN equivalent number is -£5m). Agree with David's point about the need to consider Receivables and not just the Debt secured against those receivables in isolation.

2) a Forecast PBT for 2018 of £1.8m, rising to £2.1m next year,

3) Significant Central Cost savings. The RTC Board remuneration was £800k last year. Some of the Back of House functions like Finance, IT and HR could fulfilled by the Acquirer's existing structure. Surely at least £1m of costs could be saved...and potentially more?

An Acquirer who pays £12m to get £2.5m of net working capital and potentially £3m profit pa after savings looks like a bargain price. Surely predators must be running their slide rules over this.

[davidosh] 08/8/2018 14:33

sbs said.....Some people pop into AGMs before work. If you set a later time, they have to take half a day's holiday.

The only people who remotely gain from such an early Agm time are the directors. They will have no shareholders there and so able to get on with whatever they want for the rest of the day. The time has been set without any thought for shareholders who actually own the company and who AGMs are actually for !!!

I wonder how often the board actually think about shareholders and their needs and how often they ever meet them in a year ?

[jaf111] 08/8/2018 09:20

xd Thursday...3p final divi plus 1p special.
Decent payout for income seekers
Remains a great value play as well imo

[eggbaconandbubble] 08/8/2018 05:38

I'd better get a job in Newcastle then!

[sbs] 07/8/2018 22:34

Some people pop into AGMs before work. If you set a later time, they have to take half a day's holiday.

[this_is_me] 07/8/2018 13:55

Have you written top the chairman to tell him what time you can get to the meeting? If so, what response did you get?

[daz] 06/8/2018 14:45

I would like to go to the AGM but it's too far away for me, living in London, even if the time were to be later.

[davidosh] 03/8/2018 10:08

Is anyone planning to attend the 9am Agm in Newcastle ?

It is intended that the Annual General Meeting will take place at the Company's registered office, A1 Grainger, Prestwick Park, Prestwick, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE20 9SJ, at 9:00am on 20 August 2018.

[sbs] 02/8/2018 23:57

Nice Divi these days.

[this_is_me] 02/8/2018 12:28

Maybe not!

[fillipe] 20/7/2018 16:45

Mmmm...87p full ask paid into the very close, today.
Looks as though the 100p marker is now very much in sight.

f

[ed_derby] 20/7/2018 16:26

Very fair & balanced summary davidosh
I'll more than likely attend too

From what you say - if it helps the shareprice to go up - it'll be a win/win !!

If they are reading this thread - I quite like Pork Pies

[davidosh] 20/7/2018 09:13

Lol....I never travel first class. The main board members are definitely based in Leeds so not sure why they want everything directed to Newcastle in the RNS ? It shows a lack of interest in receiving calls from investors rather like adding the name of your PR company at the base of RNS !

With the excellent recent track record and hopefully a good acquisition now behind them I really do think they should be engaging readily with shareholders and potential investors. If companies stay quiet and share prices stay very low then it attracts bids from competitors or a cosy deal with an investment company looking to save costs and exit the market with a nice profitable company. That does not produce the best return for shareholders so when the time is right and companies are doing well I much prefer regular engagement and meetings with investors.

If the company did an RNS to say the AGM will be held at 11am or 2pm with a presentation and Q&A after the formal meeting offered by the directors and showing all the key divisions then I am sure there would be at least 20 shareholders attending and very worthwhile for all concerned.

This is not a private company and the listing comes with responsibility. The time is right and was probably right about 18 months ago to start singing (a little bit at least)from the rooftops whilst their excellent teams are up there working away on them !

[this_is_me] 19/7/2018 22:45

No, he was in the helicopter above you!

[ed_derby] 18/7/2018 19:13

London to Leeds actually ... !

I’m sure i saw Davidosh in first class

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/7/2018 19:00

Southern rail?????

[ed_derby] 18/7/2018 18:21

Eggsbaconandbubble ...

I was on a train ... poor signal

Apologies for lowering the quality

[its the oxman] 18/7/2018 18:15

Thx Impvesta. Lets hope the 108p target comes true.

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/7/2018 17:46

Ed, you only have to press the button once!

Thanks, Impvesta ('Impostor' according to spell checker lol!)

[simso] 18/7/2018 17:35

Thanks Impvesta, NTBR's 4 minute summary are at 21 mins 45 secs. Bullish view based on charting (if thats your thing!).

[impvesta] 18/7/2018 17:00

A mention for NTBR by Alan Green towards the end of yesterday's podcast:

[ed_derby] 18/7/2018 15:42

I’m with Daz ... they have support from the bank for the money ... so whats the problem?

I’m sure its all been thought through ... on the basis of the management having more information than us - as it should be !

I certainly won’t be voting for a reduced dividend to help get the cash back into credit