Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[royaloak] 30/1/2018 14:10

mathewawood

Agree, we never know what is lurking around the corner, but that can happen with any share and for a variety of reasons, I will continue to drip feed my buys the next month or so.

[tiswas] 30/1/2018 13:52

Stockopedia has this for number of shares in issue for 2012-2018 (m).

18.4 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.7 18.0

Not checked it against accounts other than they said 18.4m in issue in December 2017 but doesn't look like they have been issuing shares in any great numbers in recent years. Some are for directors share options.

[cc2014] 30/1/2018 12:47

I completely sympathise with you Matthew. I see large numbers of stocks these days where the MM's imho have a far larger spread than they did 3 years ago.

I would be guessing that they perceive this as great as they can make a large profit. However, it seems to me that part of the outcome is that retail volumes are falling as everyone is put off by the spread.


As for the share price of NTBR, I see literally dozens of stocks like this where there seems to be a disconnect between the fundamentals, dividend yield, free cash flow etc. and what the share price actually is. I know as I have a far few and my only resolution is to wait for the market to stop being irrational or collect my dividends along the way, accept a decent dividend yield, shrug my shoulders and trust that eventually the fundamentals become so irrational that capital growth will follow.

I've seen it all before. Eventually the market will correct and we will all be wondering why we didn't buy more when it was staring us in the face. Trouble is in the meantime we have to wait for an unspecified period of time before things sort themselves out. History shows me this tests my patience to the extreme as it can be years.

I rather hope it won't be years this time, although I feel like we are already at least 2 years into this irrational phase. It feels like it's turning. Watch for the £400m market cap stocks which are floundering at crazy prices to move first.

[mathewawood] 30/1/2018 12:07

MM having a laugh. Done some dummy trades 65.6p sell 70.4p buy with decent volume.

Owned shares in this one for over 3 years and have seen constant selling all that time only to see the company report excellent figures year after year. Don't think it will be any different this time.
My theory is that millions of shares have been issued, as part of the sales, to the owners of building companies they've bought out over the years. These are not financially sophisticated blokes and they have been drip selling probably using PI type broker accounts as and when they need some extra cash in their retirement. Coupled with some skittish PI's getting there nickers in a twist over Carrilion and here we are at 65p.
Bet you the next update will be solid, with eps of 12p+ and cash positive

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TTM
Rev 36.4 35.1 36.8 41.7 34.7 45.6 52.6
eps 4.69 5.96 7.52 10.7 7.82 11.3 12.1

NO debt. NO pension. Excellent cash conversion. 4p divi(6%)last year. P/E 5.4

BONKERS

[investopia] 30/1/2018 10:17

Here's what the chairman said at the end of November; maybe the directors have their hands too full integrating H Peel to worry about the share price:


Steve Roberts, Executive Chairman of Northern Bear, commented:

"I am pleased to report that the Group has had another six months of strong operational performance. We also completed the acquisition of H Peel, our first acquisition for over nine years. With a strong order book, we are looking forward to the rest of our financial year with optimism and are confident that we will be able to maintain our progressive dividend policy."

[simso] 26/1/2018 12:59

I agree with the comments above, that its more likely that nothing is wrong, but still not certain. It remains possible that they have found the losses difficult to quantify, and perhaps also some dialogue with Credit Insurers to fully establish the cover.

If nothing is wrong, I feel pretty chastened by their whole approach, and their IR is clearly non-existent. They must know were are concerned from all the messages we have tried to give, and it would have cost them so little time and effort to put out an RNS. It more smacks of a private company who wants the benefits of a PLC listing yet sees shareholders as a necessary evil who they can treat with scant regard. I would ask longer term holders...is this typical of them?

I propose that we collectively keep chasing the company (The FD's email [e-mail]) and the NOMAD StrandHanson (James Harris,
James Spinney, James Bellman [phone]. Hopefully they will eventually get fed up with us and do something. We are part owners of the company, and I think its important we do not allow them to keep us in the dark on such a potentially important issue.

[meijiman] 26/1/2018 11:54

StrandHanson is broker/nomad-no PR company listed.

[fredfishcake] 26/1/2018 11:06

I think there are two possible interpretations of the lack of an RNS:
1/ There is no material exposure but they don't think they need to RNS this
2/ They do have an exposure but can't yet quantify this

I'm with Shanklin on this - as we don't know which is the case, I for one won't be dealing in this share til we get some news either way.

[royaloak] 26/1/2018 10:55

I normally buy on the dip with these, they often weaken for no apparent reason, so I have done so again this morning, of course I could be wrong on this occasion.

[jaf111] 26/1/2018 09:35

100% agree Shanklin...esp re selling / buying.....very frustrating!

[shanklin] 26/1/2018 09:32

With key information not in the market, there is currently a false market in NTBR shares.

Given the likelihood there is not a significant exposure to CLLN, I am not prepared to sell any of my holding. However, in the absence of confirmation of this, I am not prepared to buy any more shares at what would otherwise be a bargain price.

Its pretty remiss of the NOMAD and the BOD to allow this situation to persist.

Obviously all the above is IMHO.

[jaf111] 26/1/2018 09:21

Still on the slide......how low can this go with no news????

Clearly BOD don't care!

[iotasteem] 25/1/2018 16:23

This is just ridiculously cheap now...

[red_shed2000] 25/1/2018 15:34

Purchased a few thousand on a limit order at 70p. Let's see...

[meijiman] 25/1/2018 15:17

I think they are inviting you not to be worried. Obviously if at the next results they cited issues relating to Carillion then they would be culpable. Still all this speculation could be avoided with a simple two line release. Maybe they have no PR?
In any case I'm sure their broker has sorted out the institutional holders on this matter.

[gary1966] 25/1/2018 14:37

No volume causing 3p drop, I wouldn't be too worried.

[jaf111] 25/1/2018 14:16

Rather contradictory thoughts here but the longer the silence now the better I feel since as CC2014 points out if there is a material exposure and they haven't reported it then they could be liable.

Having said that the continued slide in the share price is not encouraging!

[shanklin] 25/1/2018 13:40

NTBR may believe that they have no obligation to RNS as they have no exposure to CLLN and therefore they have nothing to report.

I don't agree with this interpretation of their responsibilities but NTBR are minimalist in their communication at the best of time

[cc2014] 25/1/2018 13:33

I have no position but follow this stock with interest and I have to say that the actions of the company are rather puzzling.

It smacks of a large liability to Carillion else why not say otherwise. On the other hand the directors have an obligation to make known any significant material news and not doing so would leave them culpable as individuals should they not do so in a reasonably timely manner.

[texas_caddy] 22/1/2018 10:53

I've emailed them as well to find out if they plan to issue RNS.

[cc2014] 22/1/2018 10:45

Doesn't smell right to me either.

If no liability easy to say so.

If liability known easy to say so.


Think more likely some liability but challenging to quantify. Or they are trying to be clever and bill all the work in progress to the receiver as post receivership work.

[shanklin] 22/1/2018 07:10

Having received a similar response from the FD as several of you, my response in an email on the morning of the 19th included:

Given there is an obligation on companies to report material information via RNSes on a timely basis, and it is now 4 days since Carillion announced its “Compulsory Liquidation”, I can only assume there is no direct material impact on Northern Bear’s business.

I have not received a reply to this email.

Given NTBR's minimalist approach to updating shareholders, I agree simso's first scenario is the most likely.

[jaf111] 21/1/2018 20:37

Sorry tiswas....was aware of the weather being an ongoing issue for NTBR.....just a bit confused as to the link with Carillion!

[tiswas] 21/1/2018 16:59

JAF, ntbr tends to suffer when the weather is poor delaying roofing work. So much so they even mention it in the 7/11 trading statement.