Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[its the oxman] 02/2/2018 08:54

Immediate update and rise should provide the opportunity for weak sellers/holders to sell out before a more sustained rally sets in over the weeks ahead. That's my hope.

[meijiman] 02/2/2018 08:45

Hopefully the management will see the merit in being open with investors and do more of it. One reason for the low rating may be that the company is off the radar of some of the institutions?

[this_is_me] 02/2/2018 08:36

Assuming the weather is normal over the rest of the winter we are probably looking at eps of 12 - 13p and a dividend of 3p.

[shanklin] 02/2/2018 08:29

Yes I wish I had topped earlier this week, albeit IMHO there has been a false market here for several weeks due to the lack of an earlier Carillion-related update.

[zoolook] 02/2/2018 08:20

Phew. Topped up on weds :-)

[bazzer1000] 02/2/2018 08:16

Thanks simso.b

[shanklin] 02/2/2018 08:15

Given the lack of broker forecasts here, it would be helpful if the company increased the frequency with which it updated the market. Making a Q3 TS an annual event would be a good start in this regard.

Certainly if NTBR ever wants to raise equity capital, it would need the share price to be at a more sensible level, which could only be helped by increased information flow.

[its the oxman] 02/2/2018 08:12

Just confirms how ridiculously cheap these are, should be 90p or 100p come next results.

[shanklin] 02/2/2018 08:12

Thank you tiswas. Much appreciated.

[tiswas] 02/2/2018 08:10

Shanklin

No. Everyone was the "we are aware of our responsibilities, take them seriously, and will advise anything via rns" type of reply, which I think everyone was receiving so I did not publish on here.

My last email was lightly stronger in tone, emphasised that we are stakeholders in the business but not insiders in the business like them, so we needed the clarification that they had themselves. Maybe it was the share price decline or maybe shareholders nagging, probably some of the larger ones, but we got there in the end!

PS My final top up was at 66p yesterday so quite pleased, although I did open the rns this morning with some trepidation!

[royaloak] 02/2/2018 08:07

Bingo! I topped up, but not enough!

[simso] 02/2/2018 07:56

Bazzer, we do not know Management Expectations, and there are no formal Forecasts in the Market. I posted a couple of days ago why I thought 14-15p was on the cards, and am even more confident that's the case after this Announcement. P/e of less than 5 as I type, but that may not be the case once the Market Opens!

[shanklin] 02/2/2018 07:33

tiswas

"exchanged half a dozen emails" suggests you received more than one reply. Were any of them informative in any way?

Cheers, Martin

[bazzer1000] 02/2/2018 07:31

At last. This now looks very good value.Better than last year and better than management expectations.But do we know what 'management expectations' are? Any help greatly appreciated. Baz

[tiswas] 02/2/2018 07:28

Well, having exchanged half a dozen emails with ntbr and having topped up three times in the last few weeks, I am hoping that I will be happy once the market opens.

Great update and clarification. Not a bull market for small caps at the moment so not sure what the response will be but well done ntbr directors!

[this_is_me] 02/2/2018 07:18

Are we all happy little bunnies now?!

[curlly] 02/2/2018 07:12

Onwards and upwards
At least it let me top up at a lower price.

[shanklin] 02/2/2018 07:08

Better late than never, but earlier would have been a lot better.... ...and certainly more in line with best practice.

[tiswas] 01/2/2018 10:17

I am not saying Carillion, I am just curious as to why the 30% pullback from recent highs and why now below where we were prior to the last very positive trading update.

[meijiman] 01/2/2018 10:01

If you are a large shareholder here you have access to the board so would find out what you needed on the exposure. Clearly there is non -so it is a not an issue.

[tiswas] 01/2/2018 09:38

If it was a cleaner operation I would be worried about an opportunistic takeover but I feel the mix of businesses make this unlikely.

[tiswas] 01/2/2018 09:20

This is really starting to baffle me this one. I am surprised that larger shareholders with a little more sway with the board than me have not requested a trading statement to alleviate any concerns.

[simso] 31/1/2018 12:07

mathewawood, I completely agree with your post 891. I am actually slightly more optimistic on the Underlying EPS, which was 6.8p in H1 if you strip out "one off" acquisition costs. Given that H2 has traditionally been the more profitable, and will have a Full Half contribution from Peel...I could certainly see 14p - 15p. Given that Earnings properly covert to cash here, then buying at 70p is giving a cash yield of c20%. Where else can you get that in this day and age? Perhaps the odd year of Bad Weather might mean 10-12p, but so what? The long term earning trajectory is still up.

One to tuck away in the SIPP for the long term, and let the miracle of compounding that fabulous yield take effect, and not worry about day to day share price.

I feel increasingly sure Carillion is a non issue, given that they definitely understood the requirement to Update the Market if anything material was wrong...and almost thre weeks have now passed.

[mathewawood] 31/1/2018 11:30

tiswas: Pretty sure i remember in my research they bought a few businesses back in 2007-08. Yes just checked, was about 2.5M shares all together. As I said, these ex-owners might well still be drip selling on to open mkt (like as a pension draw down). Also Mr Pither, the old ex-chairman, has been selling constantly for a few years now.

[tiswas] 30/1/2018 14:32

I wonder if Jon Pither is still selling down his holding although volume not great.