Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[wilmdav] 16/7/2018 14:00

Here is my usual charted reflection of the results in a historical context.



Historic p/e of 6.45 at 80p on adjusted diluted eps
Historic dividend yield of 5.0% (including 'special dividends') - no increase.
Dividend covered 3.1 times.
Net debt, including loans, is £1.1m as opposed to the £0.8 net bank debt quoted.

Solid results on paper at least. It will be interesting to see how this pans out in light of concerns expressed by Davidosh and others.

[tiswas] 16/7/2018 13:50

The FD always responds courteously to my emails although you do get the impression it is often drafted by the NOMAD!

[rhomboid] 16/7/2018 13:10

Good spot David ..out of interest do they respond to telephone calls or emails at all?

[davidosh] 16/7/2018 13:05

Last year the Agm was at a much more sensible time.....So why the change to 9.00am ???


It is intended that the Annual General Meeting will take place at the Company's registered office, A1 Grainger, Prestwick Park, Prestwick, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE20 9SJ, at 11:30am on 24 August 2017.

Did anyone here attend ? What was said that turned them against shareholders and encouraging them to come this year ?

[simso] 16/7/2018 11:57

I think that slightly "chastising" statement of "If something is wrong we will tell you" has its roots in the Carillion affair, where I know several of us (myself included) did seek clarification on whether we had an exposure. Inititially the company's response to individual queries was opaque, and I remember the long conversation on here trying to interpret what they had said to our individual questions. They initially said something along the lines of "We are aware of our communication obligations, and the correct way to breif the market is via RNS, not answer individual queries" Eventually they issued an RNS which covered it and put our minds at rest, after quite an effort on our part to get then to clarify. It was a legitimate concern at the time, and I felt they were initially insensitive to our concerns.

[exbroker] 16/7/2018 11:46

First step would be to get a proper broker, no research and not one institution on the shareholders list.

[texas_caddy] 16/7/2018 11:31

Ref: the statement around updates and contacting the company. Agree more regular updates and some coverage would be a step in the right direction. It basically means we move forward on a basis of "no news is good news" in relation to any worries, with assurance that we would have heard otherwise if there was anything to be concerned about. Not great, but at least we know where things stand.

[mctmct] 16/7/2018 11:08

Thanks Walbrook.

One small point. Should I interpret your use of "cylindrical" to mean what others might call "cyclical"?

[shanklin] 16/7/2018 10:54

Exbroker

Nobody is suggesting one should trust broker forecasts. That would be ridiculous!!!!

They do however provide a stake in the ground against which companies can decide whether or not they need to update the market as to whether they are doing significantly better or worse than said forecast(s).

The absence of a forecast is the biggest negative issue for me re NTBR.

[exbroker] 16/7/2018 10:44

Please dont tell me you trust brokers forecasts!!

[davidosh] 16/7/2018 10:43

AGM....I am not suggesting Newcastle is the wrong place merely the early start time !

It is a fact that 9am is ridiculously early and 99% of companies go for late morning meetings or even afternoon meetings so that shareholders can travel to the event. Why force them to stay overnight ? I attend at least 30 Agms a year.

With NTBR this is the only meeting for shareholders....NO results meetings, NO presentations, NO broker research, NO engagement and NO phone contact so.....

If you want to meet them get a hotel room.....I am nearly 300 miles away btw and would still attend but it is in August which is also likely to rule out many investors due to childrens holidays

[shanklin] 16/7/2018 10:42

taylor20

I also did not find the paragraph tetchy.

However, in the absence of a broker forecast, such reassurance is of far less value... ...as we have no idea whatsoever of the threshold that needs to be met for an update to be issued.

For example, had the EPS forecast been 13p and there was no update... ...and we trust management to keep us updated of variances from this... ...we know EPS is going to be 11.7p or better (10% less than 13p).

In the absence of a broker forecast, we really have no idea whatsoever what is going on albeit management do not see it as a disaster area.

HTH. Cheers, Martin

[taylor20] 16/7/2018 10:36

FWIW, I did not find the paragraph tetchy / irritable, chastening, etc. I also did not take from it that shareholders should not contact them. To me it came across as trying to reassure shareholders that if there had been anything to report, they would have done so. Just my opinion.

They have in the past published trading statements if there has been an impact (positive or negative) to expectations, there is no evidence that they have failed to issue a statement when they should have done. So I don't have any complaints on that front.

Certainly not a company well loved by the city, so perhaps not surprising the AGM is not in London (9am is taking the p though).

Slightly frustrated by the market reaction to the results.

[exbroker] 16/7/2018 10:34

I agree with you T_I_M the directors should run the company and if done well the share price will look after its self. Given the number of shares the directors own they have every incentive.

[tanelorn] 16/7/2018 10:34

walbrock82> Thanks

[davidosh] 16/7/2018 10:31

owenski16 Jul '18 - 09:48 - 998 of 1003
Always the choice available to sell Davidosh, or better still, just don't buy in the first place.

Selling a stock is not the act of a responsible owner. I work hard to engage with management and also to level the playing field for ALL investors so that information about listed companies is available whether we are small investors or large institutional investors.

If a company is listed then the directors have duties that include engaging with shareholders. If I do not think they are doing this how will selling my shares improve that ?

[this_is_me] 16/7/2018 10:22

I am delighted that the directors spend their time concentrating on running the company rather than trailing around the city and otherwise wasting time. If you want directors that spend their time talking up the value of their share options then invest elsewhere. I am also delighted that the top brass of the company doesn't trail off to London for an AGM jolly wasting time and money. It is also much handier and cheaper to get to Newcastle and stay overnight than it is to get to London, not to mention that the major shareholders, who set up the company live around the Newcastle area.

The dividend is currently almost 25% of my purchase price and the share price over 5 times what I paid less than 6 years ago. What is not to like?

[exv] 16/7/2018 10:20

I don't think it came across as irritable or tetchy - I think they are put in a difficult position by shareholders calling and asking how the weather is affecting them. They can't disclose anything meaningful, obviously, and they can't reassure that things are fine, which is of course also disclosing something.

One could argue they should put out a statement reassuring shareholders that trading is going OK. I actually agree with the company that this is a bad idea. Reactive trading updates to the market getting twitching because of a competitor, or bad construction numbers, or bad weather, is a slippery slope.

Instead I think they should do three things:

- Issue more frequent trading updates. From the interim results in November 2017 to the trading update in June 2018 shareholders knew nothing. If there was an update in the middle of that period scheduled and released, we wouldn't be having this conversation. This allows the company to be proactive rather than reactive.

- Get some research out on the company. I think it's good form for companies to use this approach to help inform small shareholders and give some more insight into the business. A big note gives comfort and helps people understand what's going on behind the scenes. It also gives some rigour if there are some financial projections out there.

- Present the story somehow, somewhere. They are very quiet. They have a good story to tell. Companies are getting better at presenting to PIs, partly thanks to events like Mello. This is a great avenue.

Re: results - I tweeted (@expectingvalue):

"£NTBR: bang in line on earnings. Cash slightly weaker but I forgive them some reversal after exceptional last couple of years. Given v. bad winter weather, and with a full year of H Peel and strong order book, things look pretty good. P/E 6.5 historic."

[walbrock82] 16/7/2018 10:14

Here is my quick analysis

[shanklin] 16/7/2018 10:13

Perhaps reflecting David's concerns, in all other respects the shares seem remarkably cheap.

[zoolook] 16/7/2018 09:59

rmillaree,

The tone of the paragraph was irritable / tetchy. It was a high handed comment and as David says disrespectful towards shareholders and is evidently symptomatic a wider cultural and communication issue at the company. Just to be clear I have never rung them up or emailed them with questions but I take umbrage that they don't think its my place to do so.

[owenski] 16/7/2018 09:48

Always the choice available to sell Davidosh, or better still, just don't buy in the first place.

[davidosh] 16/7/2018 09:22

I find that comment in the results to be totally disrespectful of shareholders.

They as a board do the absolute least they can to communicate and wonder why a handful of owners then need to contact them to understand what is happening at their own company.....shocking indeed !

They refuse to do presentations and are probably not even going round the City now the final results have been released.

There are no broker notes to my knowledge and they have a lack of broker activity to increase liquidity in the stock. They do not have a PR company or do any private investor presentations when clearly we are the only investors taking any interest in them so are 'the market' for the shares. No institutions are taking any interest in the company.

They have just announced the AGM will be in Newcastle at 9am in the morning so unless you want an overnighht stay or live within 30 miles of Newcastle then forget it.

In the whole of 2017 and 2018 when have they actually met any shareholders in person ? Do they spend any time at all with the owners of the company or do we just provide the capital and vanity of a listing ?

On top of that they put a comment in the RNS that basically says ' Do not call us as we will announce what we want you to know....the rest is for our board and employees only'

I think shareholders need to get together and seek some changes or this will become a lifestyle company. I note administration costs have increased significantly....certainly not being spent on anything shareholder communiation related !

I shall be looking carefully at remuneration in the AR as BODs that do not communicate tend to quietly extract the P.

[rmillaree] 16/7/2018 09:21

Hello zoolook

Ref being irritated.

Why be irritated?, it may come across as as chastening, but if they are fully aware of their obligations and have had an abnormal amount of questions asking "do you know your personal/company obligations" inferring they don't then there is no harm in spelling things out to everyone - i doubt they though that some bod may be irritated by the clarification itself. To be honest ringing/emailing up and asking if there is anything you should have said but didn't as a shareholder seems a bit off. For a small company there is many moving parts and trying to put the company on the spot when they probably only quantify the actual results infrequently means it's an impossible question to answer most of the time. It may make them look silly if they say no comment one day before their monthly meeting quantifying poor results - but what else are they meant to do.

[fredfishcake] 16/7/2018 09:08

...can now buy online for 85 (sell quote 82) even though all other quotes show price has gone down from today's start of 82.