Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[kiwi2007] 30/1/2024 10:05

Really needs to clear this resistance/support level in the low 220's. If it can close above 230p I'll consider adding. Otherwise , if it falls without any major news, I'll continue to hold what I've got.

That said I just have the feeling it's going to be held around here until Sid has a chance to buy a few.

[petersinthemarket] 29/1/2024 15:55

What does all this mean for existing holders?
Is it a buy-more signal or a sell-all signal?

[polar fox] 28/1/2024 21:21

Here's the FT's contribution, this afternoon:


The UK government could kick off a sale of NatWest shares to the public as early as the middle of this year, once a permanent chief executive has been installed at the bank.

Government insiders said Bim Afolami, the City minister, was eyeing a sale of part of the state’s holding in the UK high street bank to retail investors before the summer break, and that resolving the bank’s long-term leadership was a necessary precondition.

“We need a permanent CEO,” said one.

NatWest’s interim chief executive, Paul Thwaite — who took over from Dame Alison Rose when she stepped down last summer in the wake of the Nigel Farage “debankingR21; scandal — is set to lead the bank until at least July.

But the company’s incoming chair Richard Haythornthwaite has started the search for Rose’s permanent successor after joining the bank’s board earlier this month. Thwaite previously led NatWest’s commercial bank and is seen as a leading contender for the job who could be made permanent before the end of his initial one-year appointment.

In his Autumn Statement last November, chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he would “explore options for a NatWest retail share offer in the next 12 months subject to supportive market conditions and achieving value for money”.

At the time, the Treasury said it planned to sell down the remaining state holding by early 2026 “utilising a range of disposal methods” and Afolami confirmed to the Financial Times that a retail offer was still being “explored̶1;. The mid-year timing of the potential share sale was first reported by The Times.

The Treasury declined to comment on the timing or the process for selling down its remaining 36 per cent stake in the bank, which resulted from the £45.5bn bailout of the lender during the 2008 financial crisis. The government has already cut its stake from a peak of 84 per cent.

Any pre-election NatWest retail offer is expected by government officials to include a discounted share offer. NatWest’s shares have fallen 27 per cent in the past year after a set of disappointing results and the departure of Rose.

NatWest declined to comment.

Afolami told the FT that he wanted to persuade younger people to invest in NatWest as part of a wider effort to broaden share ownership, embracing Margaret Thatcher’s vision of “popular capitalism”.

Thatcher offered discounted shares to the public during privatisations such as British Gas in the 1980s, accompanied by the famous “Tell Sid” advertising campaign.

Afolami said: “We need to do much more to incentivise young people to invest in the “traditional” stocks and shares, which is why our plans to explore a NatWest retail offer to the public over the next year are so important.



“I want to say to young people: don’t just do crypto, broaden your investments, consider owning shares such as NatWest, invest in Britain and the British stock market.”

The “get rich quick” allure of cryptocurrency means it has gained traction, especially among younger investors. 

Almost one in 10 UK adults — some 4.97mn people — owned cryptocurrency assets in 2022, according to research by the Financial Conduct Authority. That eclipses the 3.9mn people who subscribed to more conventional investments using stocks and shares Isas in the 2021-22 tax year, according to the latest HMRC statistics. 

Nick Train, one of the UK’s highest profile fund managers, recently told the FT he wished more young people would “take a flutter on the stock market” than take a punt on the outcome of a football match or dabble in crypto.
unquote

[kiwi2007] 28/1/2024 20:36

UK Government Asks City Firms for NatWest Share Sale Proposals
Treasury expected to issue update alongside Budget in March
Government considering discounted sale to the public

No wonder the share price can't get past the low 220s.

And bound to have a negative effect on UK domestic bank share prices as institutions take money out to put money in here?

[smurfy2001] 28/1/2024 13:16

It is the first time since 2007 that banking was the top-paying sector.

[smurfy2001] 28/1/2024 13:12

A lock in does makes sense.

[chiefbrody] 28/1/2024 13:09

Incentives for sceptical British investors? Buy 9 get 1 free etc. Will this keep a lid on the share price till the deal is done? Last thing (ok maybe 2nd to last thing) the government will want is millions of new shareholders watching the share price tank after the deal is done. Buy and hold and get free shares if you hold for a year etc?

[factsandfigures] 28/1/2024 12:14

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is lining up the sale of the Government's huge shareholding in Nat West Bank in another 1980's style "Tell Sid" marketing campaign.

[polar fox] 28/1/2024 10:33

Just a thought, but with the Annual Results due in less than three weeks, this weekend's news has come at probably an awkward time for the Thwaites, either on or soon-to-be-on the BoD. It may well require a return to the drawing board to re-consider carefully existing decisions, wording, shareholder distributions and suchlike - I don't envy them. It may be sensible for them to consult urgently with one or two sharp-pencilled City advisors; GS could be a good place to start. Is this permitted, so close to the Results?
Somehow, I doubt Hunt has given this aspect much thought - he is primarily concerned with the politics, the need to do anything and everything to improve the chances of the Tories staying in power after the GE.

[polar fox] 28/1/2024 09:04

Daily Business:

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is expected to launch his “Tell Sid” share sale in NatWest/RBS shares as early as June in a bid to help revive investment in the stock market and bolster the public finances.

Mr Hunt revealed his plan for 1980s-style privatisation during his autumn statement in November. A retail offering of the bank’s shares is now being put out for market research to assess public attitude towards a sale.

Following the sale of some shares last week, taxpayers currently own 36% per cent of NatWest which remains from the 2008 bailout of the bank, then known as Royal Bank of Scotland.

The 84% original stake has been scaled back through a series of sales to big institutional investors or by the bank buying its shares back from the government.

NatWest shares were bought for an average of 500p and currently trade at 224p, valuing it at about £20 billion.

Walnut Unlimited, a research group which has also worked for the BBC, is expected to provide feedback by 31 January a final report by February 9.

A government spokesman said: “As the chancellor set out at the autumn statement, we are exploring options for a NatWest retail sale over the next 12 months, subject to market conditions and achieving value for money. We will provide further details at the appropriate time.”

City sources were surprised at Mr Hunt floating the idea of a retail offer so close to the departure of chief executive Dame Alison Rose who admitted her role in the controversy surrounding former UKIP leader Nigel Farage’s bank account.

Analysts have also questioned whether the currently subdued market makes it a good time to launch a major share offer. Flotations and capital raising exercises have been thin on the ground.

The “Tell Sid” campaign was launched in the mid-1980s to promote the sale of shares in British Gas.

unquote

[polar fox] 28/1/2024 08:52

Storylines from today's ST:

NatWest readies public share sale this summer

The chancellor Jeremy Hunt is preparing a multibillion-pound sale of shares in the high-street bank — but should you buy them?
unquote

No surprise, but it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the increasing likelihood of a public sale going ahead - "as soon as June", according to the story. Presumably, some sort of price incentive will be required.

[kiwi2007] 26/1/2024 08:32

Here we go - 220p'ish - hit the ceiling - get ready for the bounce back down.

[smithie6] 26/1/2024 08:30

...at least Labour has a track record of being very frugal with money

;-)

[polar fox] 22/1/2024 16:02

Just as I suspected, another TR-1. Hunt must be putting huge pressure on to raise cash ahead of March 6, from all available sources. Just another Tory 'Dash for cash', back in the 50s, 60s and 70s. Invariably ended in tears.

Quote
The percentage of voting rights held by HMT in NatWest Group plc (NWG),
as shown on this form (35.94%), has been calculated following the disposal
by HMT of 87,473,350 ordinary shares in NWG since its last TR-1 notification
on 3 January 2024.
unquote

[tradejunkie2] 22/1/2024 15:00

Customers should be whipped 100 lashes if they can't or won't pay their debt.

[gcom2] 21/1/2024 09:27

I see JPM back around it's higest share price, ever

[fwatson] 21/1/2024 07:01

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2024/jan/18/unsecured-debt-defaults-uk-banks-lenders-forecastI suppose this was inevitable. Maybe a tough year to be in NWG before things get better.

[polar fox] 19/1/2024 17:00

There has to be 25 working days between Dissolution and Polling day. Five weeks.
A scenario could be October 30 for the Autumn Statement, Dec.12 Polling, therefore Dissolution on November 7. That would give about a week for the gov't to try to make the most of any tax cuts announced, before going public with the GE date.

Just a bit of speculative fun this far out.

[polar fox] 19/1/2024 15:22

I just noticed, on my Ladbrokes online account, that they are using December 12 as their date for the GE. No explanation for their thinking, of course. Up to now, the only other specific date that I've seen is November 21, but 12/12 would give the gov't just a bit more time, after the Conference season, to squeeze in an Autumn Statement.

I'll keep an eye on it and report if it changes.

[eeezeeetiger] 19/1/2024 10:26

Mr Hunt wants to sell off the government’s stake in NatWest so can all you city whizz sniffers pump the guts out of the whole banking sector. Jeremy wants to maximise the money the government makes as UK plc is a little bit skint.

[polar fox] 18/1/2024 21:45

Interesting development, from the FT:

UK chancellor signals he wants more tax cuts before election

Jeremy Hunt holds open possibility of two Budgets before next national vote
unquote

Excerpt:

The chancellor added that the question of giving an Autumn Statement on top of the March Budget would hinge on when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak decided to hold the general election. 

One senior government figure said “squeezing in” an Autumn Statement between the next Conservative party conference and a November election would allow the party to highlight tax cuts at three successive fiscal events.
unquote

Desperate men thinking desperate stuff!

[smurfy2001] 18/1/2024 20:43

The chancellor has called in the bosses of Britain's biggest banks for talks next week amid concerns in Whitehall that their share price weakness is inhibiting lending to the wider economy.