Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[gcom2] 18/1/2024 19:03

The relative decline in UK bank valuations has taken place despite the fact that many of their balance sheets remain larger than the majority of their peers in countries such as Australia and Canada.

[qantas] 18/1/2024 13:08

Shorts doomed to failure.

Share price hammering up.



Please do your own research as always follow FCA rules

[fwatson] 18/1/2024 10:09

Easy to remember for some of you maybe, the wife would disagree... Is anyone positive about NWG as it stands just now or is everyone looking at this similarly?

[polar fox] 18/1/2024 08:26

Given the market reaction to yesterday's mere 0.1% CPI rise, note this.

Next month, it looks likely that the monthly change in THIS month's CPI will not fully match last year's 0.6% January drop, therefore leading to another rise in annual CPI. The data will be released on 14 February - Valentines Day, easy to remember - and NWG's Annual Results will be posted only two days later. Scary eh? if you're a shareholder.
The following week, the rest will post their annual results.

[isis] 17/1/2024 16:52

That's the equivalent of about a Dollar of Apple! lol

[fwatson] 17/1/2024 16:50

Ignoring the 'worst day of trading since July, 40 billion wiped off the FTSE' headline I just seen... ?

[fwatson] 17/1/2024 15:05

Not a catastrophic day though, hopefully means some confidence in the months ahead from here. I'm remaining positive.

[smurfy2001] 17/1/2024 12:44

My portfolio is down 8% this year. Not a good start.

[polar fox] 17/1/2024 07:13

A mixed bag for December:

CPI 4.0 up from 3.9
Core CPI 5.1 unchanged
RPI 5.2 down from 5.3

Next month will be a challenge, due to the drop of 0.6 for January last year - any failure to at least match that fall will mean a rise in CPI.

Markets are in poor shape this morning, including Asia. FTSE down 90 odd on IG atm.

[careful] 16/1/2024 18:15

US Banks reporting recently have done badly.
We shall see, always difficult to know how much bad debt is on the balance sheet.
This talk about car lease finance being an accident waiting to happen has been around for quite a while.

There seems to be an endless supply of potential risks with banks.

[fwatson] 16/1/2024 17:57

So do you think this will probably be a modest month for the share price and then hopefully we'll be off to the races when next months CPI comes in? Does anyone think that with new normal interest rates settling ~3% that we could see a resurgence in banking stocks finally. Since the financial crises they just haven't had any legs, is it a good time to venture into banking stocks (namely NWG), thoughts?

[careful] 16/1/2024 17:52

Not sure rates will drop that quickly.
So much HMG debt to issue.
£ will fall out of bed another problem with low rates.
Rates will be kept up to support the currency as in the past.

Another 1% at best is my guess.
The QE trick will never be used again unless there is a total collapse.

[polar fox] 16/1/2024 17:43

Sold off at the auction to close at the day's low, 208.70.

Tomorrow inflation for December - the consensus is small declines, 1-2-3 tenths for all three. If that happens, it will encourage lower rates, of course.

I've crunched the numbers through to June, by which time it looks to me like CPI will be around 2%, largely due to sizeable monthly increases a year ago dropping out of the annual calculations, once we get past January, which was -0.6% last year. Only one way for rates. Property should enjoy a recovery.

[smurfy2001] 13/1/2024 12:04

All banks will continue doing buybacks along with paying increasing dividends. I'm re-investing dividends at these yields.

[fwatson] 13/1/2024 07:01

As long as geopolitical tensions remain low I'm still bullish about this year and financial stocks. A new norm of ~3% interest rates could be very beneficial for NatWest in the long run, what's your thoughts?

[smurfy2001] 12/1/2024 16:33

In 2019 Natwest had 11.2B shares in issue, today 8.79bn so a reduction of 2.41bn TD yet the stock price is a dogs dinner.

[careful] 11/1/2024 16:46

Inflation in US looks harder to kill after todays number.
Interest rates will stay higher.

UK growth weak, it will be difficult for HMG to issue Gilts at low rates, there will not be enough buyers.
Weak Uk economy and high debt is a dangerous place to be.


2024 could turn out to be nasty for markets, we are due for a crash.
When sentiment turns it could be nasty, everyone runs for the exit at the same time and ETF's exaggerates movements.

Hold on for a bumpy ride, World debt of $300 trillion is eye watering.

[polar fox] 11/1/2024 16:11

Picking up from my post last week, the 215-225 trading range since early December has been lost today, as you can see from the top chart. Decent TA support is around 200, give or take.
Will HMT continue to sell, below 215? We'll see just how desperate the gov't is to raise cash ahead of the Budget if another TR-1 is indeed issued this month.

[smurfy2001] 08/1/2024 10:44

Looking at JPM l don't quite understand the weakness in the UK market.

[jubberjim] 07/1/2024 22:40

Smurfy2001

Thanks for info

Would be very nice return.

Trying to keep my rainy day cushion intact so will be hoping lgen can make further upward progress so as to give me the room to manoeuvre accordingly.

The uncertainty I see in the present market conditions give me more time in which to act.
Hope my timing is up to it

Thanks again

[johnwise] 07/1/2024 19:24

VIDEO

CHINA $3 Trillion Debt Contagion Risk as Shadow Banking Giant Zhongzhi Files for Bankruptcy

[johnwise] 07/1/2024 19:23

VIDEO

China Unable to Sell Anything, Domestic Demand Dead, 70% Goods Dumped Abroad at Low Prices

[smurfy2001] 07/1/2024 18:15

jubberjim7, using average consensus of 16.8p FY23 DPS, final could be 11.3p (5.5p was interim). That would mean a 13% increase over FY22 final of 10.0p. A very tasty yield indeed.