Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[gcom2] 20/12/2023 14:03

SP did not really recover through rising rates/nim so on what basis should it fall?imo falling bond yields will see bank shares recover in 2024

[skinny] 20/12/2023 13:31

Polar fox good point.

Meanwhile and FWIW :- RBC raises NatWest price target to 320 (290) pence - 'sector perform'

[crazi] 20/12/2023 13:26

Someone's got their boot on NWG's throat and just won't let go...

Not sure if it's Hedge Funds preparing their positions or the UK Gov selling...

Great news inflation dropped so much and NWG is -1.5%


The manipulation is huge...

[jubberjim] 20/12/2023 11:52

Couldn t resist

Plain daft just took a few here

[polar fox] 20/12/2023 11:51

I wonder if some folk are beginning to worry about the impact of falling rates on NIM??
For example, I posted in the summer, that NWG were paying 5.90 for 2-yr cash ISAs, which proved to be the market peak. The start date for those deposits is early September, maturity early September '25. They are now paying just 4.30 for the same funds, a remarkable drop of 1.60, since September - the Q3 outlined the significant switch by customers. I think NIM is being squeezed and it is going to get worse in the months ahead.
We'll find out in February, but the Results could possibly lead to another sell-off.

[gcom2] 20/12/2023 09:58

Jp Morgan at 3 year high. This not far off 3 year low. Getting very silly now.

[polar fox] 20/12/2023 07:35

FTSE up over 100 now on IG. Cable gapped down, anticipating lower interest rate support ahead.

[polar fox] 20/12/2023 07:07

Inflation down by much more than consensus expected.
CPI 3.9 - core 5.1 - RPI 5.3. For sure, rates go lower and the pressure on the BoE to cut BR earlier will ramp up. FTSE up over 50 on IG as I type.

[polar fox] 19/12/2023 21:16

Yesterday's RNS read:

Following the settlement of the above transactions, NWG will hold 203,218,308
Ordinary Shares in treasury and have 8,795,471,955 Ordinary Shares in
issue (excluding treasury shares).

Today's reads:

Following the settlement of the above transactions, NWG will hold 193,108,506
Ordinary Shares in treasury and have 8,804,051,178 Ordinary Shares in
issue (excluding treasury shares).
unquote

Just a reminder that the bank is quietly issuing millions of new shares, whenever it likes, basically without a peep.

Wednesday morning we get the inflation update, for November. CPI, core CPI are both expected to ease lower by a tenth or two. Anything else and we should see some volatility.

[crazi] 15/12/2023 13:05

Shares are 40% DISCOUNTED, making huge profits and nobody wants them... pitiful

The LSE is dead...

[polar fox] 14/12/2023 12:17

The MPC doesn't have anything unexpected to say. Here's the concluding paragraph:

The MPC will continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation. Monetary policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with the Committee’s remit. As illustrated by the November Monetary Policy Report projections, the Committee continues to judge that monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time. Further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures.

unquote

[smithie6] 14/12/2023 12:17

30-40 years ago....not 20.

But if manufacturing had not moved to China...then it would have been India....or Vietnam...or Argentina or Brazil...or...

And as part of the EU the UK had no control over the import duties payable for imports made in those countries.

At present the import duties to the UK & to the EU are quite low imo, quite often 6% but depends on the product.

Should the UK increase it's import taxes ?
What do people think ?

-------

It's very strange or hypocritical imo to impose a minimum wage (minimum living standard) & have workers' rights like paid holidays, sick pay, no child labour, health care etc but to quite happily import products from overseas factories where we know those rights do not exist !
That should change, but I don't see politicians doing it.

[johnwise] 14/12/2023 08:10

To think this communist country China was Third World until the Free West gave them their manufacturing sectors 20 years ago..Now Britain and most of the West is destitute..living on debt.

[smurfy2001] 14/12/2023 00:36

Dow closes at record high after Fed signals it will cut interest rates in 2024

US central bank holds interest rates at 22-year high, but expects to cut rates three times next year as inflation continues to fade

[polar fox] 13/12/2023 20:53

DOW over 37,000 for the first time.
On IG, the FTSE is currently up around 45 points on today's close. Could be a decent opening tomorrow, but remember the MPC will be providing its guidance at noon.

[polar fox] 13/12/2023 19:46

Well, everything has soared in NY, as you can see, including LYG and NWG. Whoever did the selling at 4:35 was holding the telescope the wrong way round!

[polar fox] 13/12/2023 17:13

The banks were sold off in the auction, see the charts above - someone must be taking a view on the Fed's decision and comments this evening. NWG lost about 0.80p.

[polar fox] 11/12/2023 11:48

From the RNS:

The percentage of voting rights held by HMT in NatWest Group plc (NWG),
as shown on this form (37.97%), has been calculated following the disposal
by HMT of 127,495,698 ordinary shares in NWG since its last TR-1 notification
on 24 May 2023.
unquote

That's a long time to get from 38.53%.
Note that Katie Murray sold her 604k shares on 23 May @ 274.

[kiwi2007] 11/12/2023 10:17

Fall back from 220 not unexpected looking at the chart. Hopefully it'll have another go later.

[johnwise] 11/12/2023 05:16

Natwest records fractional fall in South West business activity during November


Economic experts at Natwest have recorded a "fractional fall" in South West business activity in November.

It was the fifth time in the last six months that output had declined, with companies blaming the latest fall on lower intakes of new work.

At 49.8 in November, the headline NatWest South West PMI Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – fell from 50.1 in October and below the no-change 50.0 mark.

[smithie6] 08/12/2023 20:30

So, does this mean

A) pension funds for UK workers have no money to invest !...compared with in the past

B) pension funds for UK workers prefer to invest their money outside of the UK. If so that would be a damning appraisal of the prospects for UK plc.

[smurfy2001] 06/12/2023 22:51

Foreign ownership of UK listed shares has hit a record high of nearly 60%, The Times reports this morning.

Which means the ownership of such assets by UK pension funds and insurers is at an all-time low – or at least the lowest since anyone started counting.

[smithie6] 06/12/2023 13:39

Nat West
219p
...it has been a bit of a beast from 180p. :-)

[kiwi2007] 05/12/2023 10:36

Moody’s issues ‘negative̵7; outlook for global banking sector in 2024

Stephen Gandel in New York

Moody’s has issued a negative outlook for the overall global banking sector for 2024, citing a “deteriorating” operating environment, rising bad loans and the war in Israel as major problems ahead.

The credit ratings agency predicted the biggest sources of bad loans will be in Africa, followed by the Middle East. Among advanced economies, Moody’s said higher unemployment and lower consumer confidence could cause “problem loans” to rise sharply in the UK and Canada. The agency said China had been good at proactively managing its growing credit problems.

For the US, Moody’s said loan growth would slow, but it did not expect major loan losses. Like others, the credit rating agency said commercial real estate and the growth of private credit funds were areas to watch.

Moody’s also warned that “the military conflict between Israel and Hamas could yet negatively influence credit conditions through oil prices and market sentiment”.


My feeling is that that 'warning' is aimed more at the international banks (HSBA and STAN etc) rather than UK domestic.

[johnwise] 05/12/2023 07:57

VIDEO

BREAKING: "NEGATIVE" 2024 Banking Outlook Issued by Moody’s Raises Major Concerns

Lena Petrova,