Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[polar fox] 10/2/2024 09:02

Today's Times; as usual, the article is behind the paywall:

NatWest still waiting for success story after years of turmoil

More than 15 years after its state bailout during the financial crisis, the bank has yet to return to full private ownership and is seeking a chief executive
unquote

gcom,

I wouldn't worry too much about how it may look in the big scheme of things. For perspective, the share price fell to 90p - pre-rebase - in September 2020 (Covid), before rising to a peak of 313p last February. That's way short of the c.500p taxpayer breakeven. Then the Q3 was very badly received last October and the share price fell sharply to 168p in minutes, approaching half the February high.
Let's see what happens next Friday. If the Results are not well-received, things could quickly get to a point where Hunt has no option but to cancel the whole idea of a Retail Sale and continue with the existing disposal arrangements, aimed at getting HMT out by around 2026.

[gcom2] 09/2/2024 22:20

This was 308p just 12 months ago. Not so far off break even for taxpayers, how is it going to look if they sell the rest at a far lower price? Really not gonna look good at all, is it

[polar fox] 09/2/2024 21:15

If it goes ahead, the level of retail interest will surely mostly depend on the entry price, combined with an ultra-intensive advertising campaign. Sid and his Mrs won't be too aware of the nosediving and suchlike I suspect.
But events are moving the wrong way for the politicians and others involved - the share price is declining, next week the Results and I've been warning for months about an adverse market reaction to the probable detail; much may depend on the size of the dividend compared with the November consensus.
Just where will the discount be pitched? I had been thinking c.190, but no more. What if the Results are judged unsatisfactory? 150? 120? 100? You get my drift.

For the time being, I'll leave it at that, for folk to ponder.

[gcom2] 09/2/2024 19:47

What incentive is there for Sid to buy if this nosedives on every piece of macro data that actually affects nwg uk peers much less, and it's usa peers not at all?

[polar fox] 09/2/2024 17:38

Sold at the auction again and closed at 210.70, the day's low. Chart support remains around 200p, which held last month's decline at 203.10p; but will it do so again, given the need for a discount, if the public sale goes ahead?

The algo was aggressively buying today - good to see it taking advantage of lower prices.

[polar fox] 09/2/2024 15:36

Inflation update due next Wednesday and the first consensus numbers are just out. The last thing people want are increases, remembering all the fuss when CPI went up by 'only' 0.1% last month, to 4%. But, worse is now expected.

The CPI consensus is that last January's 0.6% m/m DECREASE will NOT be matched, but will instead be -0.3% this time, resulting in CPI rising from 4% to 4.2% y/y.
Core inflation rises from 5.1% to 5.2% y/y.
Markets will likely anticipate further delay in the BoE cutting BR if the ONS publishes increases of this sort. That remains to be seen, of course.

Looking further ahead, the following four months (Feb - May) should see annual CPI dropping sharply to close to 2% by June, as last year's relatively 'high' monthly increases drop out of the calculation, one by one. So expect Tory politicians to remain optimistic; but you can see why the BoE is in no hurry to cut.

[gcom2] 09/2/2024 12:55

Nwg now valued 4.5 times earnings lol

[xxxxxy] 09/2/2024 06:01

AVOID WITH A BARGE POLE!!!

[xxxxxy] 09/2/2024 06:01

NatWest has hired a sustainability banker and diversity champion to run its private bank Coutts after its chief executive was ousted in the aftermath of the Nigel Farage debanking scandal.Emma Crystal, who leads UBS' sustainable finance unit, will become chief executive of NatWest's wealth management division, which includes Coutts, later this summer.Ms Crystal, who was also an executive sponsor of UBS's LGBT & Ally network in Switzerland, will also sit on NatWest's executive management committee.... Daily Telegraph

[smurfy2001] 08/2/2024 19:49

We will find out on results day what the impact is until then all speculation.

[action] 08/2/2024 11:39

Wait for results due this month .

[action] 08/2/2024 11:37

To start with us style stamp duty please. LOL.

[action] 08/2/2024 11:34

Result on 16th feb24

[gcom2] 07/2/2024 21:41

Meanwhile JPM valued over half a trillion now

[smurfy2001] 07/2/2024 18:50

Thatcher's favourite ad men hired for NatWest retail share sale

[smurfy2001] 07/2/2024 16:03

How public sale of NatWest could spark a wider share boom



The CPS wants tax changes to encourage more people to become retail share investors, as well as fewer regulatory warnings, improved access to investment advice and the amalgamation of cash and share Isas.

[petersinthemarket] 06/2/2024 17:17

Thanks for the analyst estimates of 280/330p. We will have to wait to see whether the share price reaches that dizzy height. Whatever share price it does reach, I assume the summer sale will be at a discount to the current share price in order to attract buyers. In which case, why are we all still here? Wouldn't it be better for most to sell up now and wait to get back in on the eventual sale, if it proves to be attractive enough?

[smurfy2001] 06/2/2024 14:57

NatWest share sale could be in June at the ‘very earliest’, Government group says

[gcom2] 06/2/2024 14:42

I cannot find any analyst with a target under 280 on this. General consensus is around 330

[petersinthemarket] 06/2/2024 13:59

Any guesses on the eventual offer price?
Current share price not looking too distressed.

[polar fox] 06/2/2024 13:00

Snippets from the BBC:

The sale of shares in NatWest to the general public could happen as early as June, UK Government Investments (UKGI) has confirmed.

and

On Tuesday, Holger Vieten, who is in charge of selling the government's shares in NatWest, told MPs on the Treasury Select Committee that the process "potentially could happen" as early as June.

"The very earliest could be around summer time, but we don't have an exact date," the UKGI director said.

and

Mr Vieten said UKGI had hired advisers, including legal and banking experts, to work out options for a share sale before a proposal would be presented to ministers to decide on.

He said there were several "windows" for a retail offer, but added the company had not come to any firm conclusions.

"It's very much a work in progress," he said.

unquote

[smurfy2001] 05/2/2024 22:37

Looks like the buyback is getting meatier (l guess in order to wrap up) as we start to approach the results.

[action] 05/2/2024 19:00

Natwest will kick start the reporting season on 16th of Feb24