Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 15/4/2009 12:42

Sorry, not got a link wackford tho I have seen it and it's upbeat.

Some dud fund selling into the rally today I expect and destroying their shareholders' value even further.

KBC note emphasises the reliability and commitment to the divi here by the way.

CR

[whiterussians] 15/4/2009 11:58

Im getting ready to bang into these

[cockneyrebel] 15/4/2009 07:39

0637 GMT [Dow Jones] Marston's (MARS.LN) trading update is "very good," and its shares should continue to rise Wednesday morning, KBC Peel Hunt's Paul Hickman says. Like-for-like sales +3.1% in last two months and two days to April 13 from a year earlier, "without a major impact to margins," says Hickman. Adds the update is "very much" what he'd been hoping for. Marston's and Enterprise Inns' (ETI.LN) recent trading statement shows there's "some health" in the low ticket pub market, which bodes well for the next few months heading into summer. Hickman has a buy rating on Marston's and 180p target price. Stock Tuesday closed 2.8% higher at 157p. (LEV)

[cockneyrebel] 15/4/2009 07:34

Good statement out today, seeing an improvement.

These are cheap imo - lovely yield still.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/4/2009 13:56

:-)

I thought it was interesting that the upgrade came just prior to the trading statement next week. These brokers usually have a pre-results/statement chat with the co - I'm sure they get a little 'feel' for how things are going from that chat.



CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/4/2009 14:06

1252 GMT [Dow Jones] KBC Peel Hunt upgrades Marston's (MARS.LN) to buy from hold. Thinks Marston's represents the best of the traditional pub model, with a clear focus on income, backed up by a secure balance sheet. On a prospective PE of 8x and yielding 6%, the brokerage thinks the shares remain oversold on misplaced balance-sheet concerns. "Both in terms of covenants and repayments, we believe that it has adequate headroom," says the brokerage. Increases the price target to 180p from 110p. (ANT)

[cockneyrebel] 06/4/2009 11:47

Sun's out - pub co's are up.

With such a crumbty summer last year lik for like sales must be easier to beat imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 05/4/2009 20:42

By th way the divi is 13% compound over 30 years according to Small Co Sharewatch - quite an achievement. Don't know what the capital growth has been in that time but £100 invested 30 years ago is now paying share holders £51 a year in dividends.

[cockneyrebel] 05/4/2009 16:47

It's not just the booze tho sportbilly - tho Marston's is sold through supermarkets so as a brewer they are hedged to some extent.

What's important here is the restaurant side of the business and many are trading down from expensive restaurants to cheaper 'pub-grub' which benefits Marstons.

We are also currently seeing better weather. Last summer was the worst washout in decades even tho the year before was bad too - can it really be as bad as that again? A bit of warm weather and the like for likes will be rather good imo.

These broke out last week - no resistance till £2 now. They have a fantastic long term record of growth of earnings and divi that can't be ignored imo and they seem desperate to maintain it.

I'll keep holding, especially after the break out.

CR

[sportbilly1976] 03/4/2009 09:19

CR,

I think they may find to replicate a 12% earnings growth over the past 12 months difficult....

Most of my friends would rather spend £6-7 on a bottle of wine and stay in than go out and get charged £3 for a pint and nearly £5 for a spirit & mixer or a glass of wine....

...thats why they complain about supermarkets....although I go out one night a week very few pubs can rely on one good nights income to pay all their costs.

This looks one company where the fundamentals contradicts the technical analysis

[cockneyrebel] 02/4/2009 19:21

wackford - yes, very undervalued seeing they've grown earnings for about 25 years or something @ 12% ave.

This is one pub that's still to fly.

CR

[whiterussians] 02/4/2009 10:59

190p target, then 240p

[sportbilly1976] 02/4/2009 10:09

Seems to have broken out nicely...200p would seem a reasonable short term target

[cockneyrebel] 02/4/2009 08:54

Look at that breakout - loads coming here soon imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 01/4/2009 14:06

Chart broke out yesterday, ETI, PUB all doubling - none of them as good as MARS tho surely?

Must race to 150p+ soon imo.

CR

[jeffian] 24/2/2009 12:00

CR,

Far from "doing its bit for pubs at the budget" this govt is determined to stuff them even further with a 17% rise in drink duties to pay for the wasteful and ineffectual cut in VAT last November.

("However, beer and wine prices will not fall.

Alistair Darling explained: "The reduction in VAT lowers the amount of tax paid on tobacco, alcohol and petrol. . .

"So I will offset the VAT reduction, by increasing all these duties by an amount which should keep the overall cost to consumers the same this year."

The British Beer & Pub Association (BBPA) said the surprise rise had caused "genuine disbelief" among its members.

The increase in duty comes after Alistair Darling had implemented a 4p increase in duty on a pint of beer earlier this year and had announced above-inflation increases for the next four years.

At the time the move was widely condemned by the pub industry, which has been hit particularly hard by the down turn in the consumer economy.

The Campaign for Real Ale claimed that up to 7,500 pubs could close by the end of 2012.

Mark Hastings, at BBPA, said: "There is genuine dismay and disbelief that the Chancellor is turning a deaf ear and a blind eye to the economic plight of Britain's traditional beer and pub sector."

The changes will add 17p to a bottle of sparkling wine and 3p to a litre of cider or perry, and the Wine and Spirits Trust Association said that drinkers would be paying the price for bailing out the economy

Jeremy Beadles, chief executive of the WSTA, said: "The Chancellor has given consumers no cause to celebrate this Christmas.

"This year he will have increased tax on alcohol by a massive 17 per cent, hurting consumers when they have little else to cheer about. It's the wrong tax rise at the wrong time."")

Trade bodies are lobbying hard for a reversal and David Cameron has jumped on the bandwagon but the very best we can expect is 'no increase' rather than a 'cut'. The govt seems a bit confused about its attitude to alcohol and the use of price as a control mechanism; when beer in pubs costs either side of £3/pint and a litre of tramp-juice in a brown paper bag can be had in the local offy for less than a quid what, pray, is the point of increasing pub prices? Anyone care to join me on this park bench?!

Regards, Ian

[cockneyrebel] 24/2/2009 11:19

Picked up some more this morning.

Reckon the gov has to do it's bit for pubs at the budget, they've helped every other industry. Reckon we get a big rally ahead of the budget. Also the gov get cred for cheering us up by lowering the cost of booze in these depressing times.

MP's being lobbied hard to get the taxes reduced on booze.

Fabulous yield record here that the company will move heaven and earth to maintain imo.


CR

[milacs] 17/2/2009 12:29

Ian

Thankyou for your fairly comprehensive overview of Marston's marketplace. Incidentally you are mistaken I have been drinking beer for more years than I care to remember suffice to say I was playing bowls at a Butlers pub in the Midlands when I ws seven years old. Further more I much prefer 'bitter' to the synthetic garbage peddled as lager.

Now back to Marstons. I see that they are producing 'ale' or even 'premium quality ale' to a diminishing marketplace. Yes their market percentage has increased but in real terms overall sales increases are small. On the other hand the potentially 'last man standing' in the brewing business does have it's attractions. I see they have bought Ringwoods brewery which is just up the road from Bournemouth and their beer is good.

I am a bit concerned that they are reducing pub openings by cutting back on capital spending as I recall £117M to £50M this will be the equivalent of handing business to the likes of Weatherspoons.

In 2008 MARS spent over £8M on share buy backs at £3.3 per share.In the current environment I think they need to conserve cash. Furthermore paying out a huge dividend is unwise considering thy are cutting back on capital spending. I reckon it should be the other way round.

As to buying shares in either Marston's or Weatherspoon's I think I will hold fire for a while. This market is particularly scary and I believe we have a way to fall before it bottoms out.

Wait and watch is prudent.

Can I hold to this tenet, that is the question.

Regards

M

[jeffian] 17/2/2009 10:50

milacs,

To some extent you're trying to compare chalk & cheese. Just because both companies have dealings with pubs, it doesn't mean they are comparable and they are not. One (JDW) is a retailer and the other (MARS) is what used to be called a 'vertically-integrated regional brewer', albeit now with national pretensions, (that means that within the same company they brew the product, distribute it (wholesale) to both the free and tied trade and operate pubs both as retailers (directly Managed) and property landlords (Tenanted Estate)). The retailer JDW (Managed pubs) operates exactly as any other retailer like M&S etc.; they buy wholesale the products which best appeal to their customers and give them the best margin while trying to contain fixed (rent, rates etc.) and variable (wages, heat, light, power etc) costs. They are first affected by recession (squeezed between lower customer spend and higher operating costs) and first out of it as every additional £ spent increases margin. MARS will have exactly the same pressures in its managed estate, but also has a substantial tenanted estate which produces a steady rental income not affected by day-to-day fluctuations in the retail market, and a (hopefully!) growing share of the shrinking ale market. Also, traditionally, the market has applied different multiples to the earnings of both types of companies, with retailers being on rather racier multiples than brewers and pubco's. With JDW you will get direct exposure to the peaks and troughs of the retail economy; with MARS you will get a 'safer' investment spread over a wider range of operations but probably at the expense of lower growth. You pays yer money and takes yer choice.

As for the 'brand' question, 'Marstons' may be relatively unknown to you as a pub-goer (and, I suspect, not an ale-drinker) but it is well-known to those who drink beer. Since the break-up of the industry arising from the Beer Orders, there has been no future in just being a 'regional' brewer and what you are seeing is the complete disappearance of minor brands with the larger regionals trying to turn themselves into nationals and create national brands out of what were local beers (Fullers 'London Pride'; Greene King 'Abbot Ale', Marstons 'Pedigree' etc.).

Of course, you could buy both and see what happens!

Regards, Ian