Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Marston's Plc LSE:MARS London Ordinary Share GB00B1JQDM80 ORD 7.375P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.02 -0.06% 36.12 4,232,111 16:35:05
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
35.24 35.72 37.94 34.60 37.56
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 1,141.30 54.30 7.10 5.1 229
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:28:21 O 88,397 36.591 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
31/3/202017:32Marstons...time to buy???3,527
31/3/202012:30Marstons - Needs Shaking Up !1,621
21/7/201811:24Is there Life on MARS?91
16/8/201715:56Is the brewery purchase toxic. Was always a good plodder before?1
24/5/200816:48MARS - The Iceman Cometh3

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Marston's Daily Update: Marston's Plc is listed in the Travel & Leisure sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker MARS. The last closing price for Marston's was 36.14p.
Marston's Plc has a 4 week average price of 18.40p and a 12 week average price of 18.40p.
The 1 year high share price is 133.80p while the 1 year low share price is currently 18.40p.
There are currently 633,991,930 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 6,242,503 shares. The market capitalisation of Marston's Plc is £228,997,885.12.
smithie6: MARS ref. the Evening Standard article I think there is logic in Marstons being a takeover target, to get hold of its tang. assets. & assuming an acquirer can refinance the debt, or reduce it using their own cash, the interest cost could crash & the profit would jump (assuming we return to normal business some time in the future) The co. pays about 100-120M in interest, wipe that out & the EBITDA is/was about £200M ! +/- rough numbers.....not so far below the share cap. value of £277M at a share price of 42p !. (the share price is highly geared wrt the tangible assets & debt, which some of us knew & it's why we're here now; if an acquirer made of offer of double the share price it would only be a % of his overall cost, since he'd be forking out about £1200M for the debt as well as say £560M if he paid 84p/share. ~£1760M. At 42p/share it would be about £1200M + ~£280M for all the shares, = 1480M. Paying double the share price of 42p would cost an acquirer only 19% extra ! These are rough numbers to try to illustrate a point. ....big financial houses with cash or cash raising capability could well be interest, Goldman, Blackstone.. & the interest rate on deposited cash has been stuck close to zero for years & imo is virtually g'teed to stay close to zero, since Govts & the ECB are all sitting on mountains of debt, if the ECB allowed the % rate to rise the economy, banks & all of us would be screwed, so it ain't gonna be allowed to happen. (& in a financial climate where year after year the Govts just want to print more & more money, then bricks & mortar are surely a better assets to hold rather than paper money, which after all is just paper !
fenners66: Share price reaction : clearly they see it ww's way ....
brewery boy: Why should dividend be cut now? Board are well aware of need to reduce debt, but this is nothing new and remember dividend increases as share price goes down.I am fairly confident that MARS can do well but potential investors require patience and stamina.
redartbmud: Marstons isn't generating sufficient profit to generate enough free cash to pay down debt. They have to sell. At the AGM Findlay commenteed that pub trading went in cycles and that for the present time, wet led sales were leading the way and food led pub trading was softer, So, they sell wet led pubs. Hmmm......maybe thet should rebrand as 99p Pub chain, when the share price falls below the magic £1.
jeffian: "I assume share price is going up as City boys and girls happy MARS are delivering what's requested." I doubt it. Growth remains sclerotic, ROC awful and progress on debt reduction slow. I imagine the share price strength reflects more that the worse they do, the likelier that someone will swoop on them for the assets. Can't come soon enough IMV.
cc2014: #1426 MARS have said their profitability is largely independent of Brexit. However, if Brexit is sorted currencies will rally 15% at least so it's 15% cheaper to buy it now than wait. Of course it could all go the other way. I have been mulling over what to do this morning and have concluded a share price of 122p is not enough to incentivise me to sell part of my holding. It's about a 25% rise on my entry point and I'm getting the dividends as well but I believe the share price was bashed down below a reasonable level and should never have reached 100p. To make me sell I'm going to need something better as I'm happy enough holding and MARS helps me diversify my portfolio. We'll see what happens from here. I'm inclined to think it will consolidate in this area and may spend some time trying to break free of the chart point of 125p.
illiswilgig: Hmm. Fullers. Yes, good points. As a (very small) shareholder in Fuller's for many years I see that Fuller trapped themselves on the Griffin Brewery site. Fullers London estate of pubs and hotels has prospered and grown - alongside a lot of London based businesses. Fullers shares are highly rated - historically between 15x and 18x earnings. That rating expects a lot of growth. The growth can be attained through investing in the pubs and hotels - but the brewery also needs investment to grow. It's a masterpiece of efficiency on its 1845 Chiswick site but it can't expand. Fuller's can't afford to invest in both their London estate and a new brewery site. Continuing to try to do both will result in a share price fall as sufficient growth fails to materialise. They must have been under a lot of pressure to find a way out. Sad but true. Also Fullers have a great reputation as brewers - but they have only ever operated one brewery. They have no experience in operating or building other breweries. So that would be quite a big risk. Asahi have offered them a great way out. A sky-high price which reflects the location and value of the site rather than that of the brewery by brewing the London Pride brand globally - and Asahi take on the risks and investment associated with brewing at other sites for expansion. What this means for the griffin brewery in the long term - who knows? But I doubt you could hope for a better longterm owner than Asahi? If somebody offered Marston's £250m (or more given the size and capacity of their breweries in comparison) for the Burton or Bedford sites maybe they would take it? But nobody will, the Bedford brewery and business only cost Marston's £55m, and the Marstons estate with it's outside of London and the Southeast locations don't have the same growth prospects as Fullers London Estate. Marstons is a very different business, in location, scale and prospects. There is a reason why Marstons is on a multiple of 7x and Fullers on 17x. Marstons pays a dividend of 8% and Fullers 2%. Very different businesses with very different markets and opportunities. Selling Marstons breweries won't rerate it to 17x earnings. Sadly. My crystal ball is currently not operational so I can't say which one is the better investment. I have a larger holding in MARS than I do in FSTA partly due to topping up at recent lows. Neither holding is large in my portfolio. It will be interesting to see how it works out, apologies for the long ramble, cheers
quady: Jeffian - you've been on this share since the dawn of time, but I disagree so please enlighten me. The five year chart has Marstons hovering around the 140p up to the equity placing at just over 130p after costs. In the four years to the placing EPS rose sluggishly but reasonably. I doubt Mars was seen as a growth share in that time. In that period debt:eps remained roughly flat no? So far I can't see reason for a share price slump. Charles Wells has been EPS flat but improved debt:profit. I just can't see anything Marstons has done in the last 18 months which should've knocked off a third of the share price. I agree with Janekane that the franchise model makes the books more difficult to follow, but Mars is (IMHO) not cooking the books. The only thing I've noticed over the last year is Mars falls with GNK but either doesn't or only slightly rises with it. From where I'm sitting GNK has had a bad aquistition and Marstons a probably slightly helpful one. That is said drinking a bottle of McEwans Champion. I disagree that Marstons can't compete on price. Hobgoblin at £1.25, Banks is sold for under a quid. This Champion gets hit my minimum pricing in Scotland. One of the positives I see is Mars being able to raise margin in supermarkets over time a bit. I think the brand portfolio can be better used. Try the American Pale Mars does for Sainsbury's Taste the Difference on contract. They can do the quality for craft, just needs sticking in a can. The main fail of the CW acquisition, the failed canning line.... yet the market didn't react when that was made public. Odd.
quady: QP - I have checked and Marstons peaked at about 330p in Feb 2007 on a rebated basic given the share split and rights issue, but that's not so material to your point. In short, I don't know why the slump, I wasn't invested then. But I can give some clues which others may pick up on to save me going into the accounts. By Nov 2008 the share price was at 60p. Between those two dates Marstons put in place their long term debt financing. Turnover is now about 40% higher than it was at peak share price, but profit flat between now and then. The dividend at the share price peak was about 2.7%, but payments in pence per share terms a bit higher than today. From the looks of it, it was misspriced in 2007. I think it's misspriced today, which is why I hold it. Beer might be in decline as a category, doesn't mean there isn't profit to be had. I also invest in BrewDog who's share valuation tragectory looks more like Amazon than Marstons. I doubt that in my lifetime beer will stop being sold, people stop going to restaunts and hotels. What I do doubt are FANG valuations being realistic. Anyway, Marstons is more of a bet on real estate and finance as it is beer. I'd be interested in others on here wisedom on why the share price fell so hard and hasn't bounced back.
illiswilgig: Hello QP, you make some very valid points. I've not checked that far back - but I assume you are correct and MARS share price in 2007 was 470p! Sad for anyone who has held since then. So to answer your question I expect that MARS is making a lot less profit today than it was 10 years ago. Hence the shareprice is a lot lower. It is also possible, indeed probable, that MARS is rated much lower today than a decade ago, perhaps in the expectation that profits will continue to fall. Probably a bit of both, less profit and lower rating = 100p shareprice today. The question is not what happened in the last decade - it's what will happen in the next decade. At least that is the basis upon which I invest. You are certainly correct about the macrotrends of online versus highstreet retailing and about the rate of closures of pubs. Though the next decade leading to all pubs being closed is about as likely as MARS shareprice falling by another 370p? But everything has a value - even if its a very low one? So after Amazon's meteoric shareprice rise and Marston's shareprice plummet which shareprice is closer the companies intrinsic value? It's interesting to note that Amazons profitability is actually quite low. It makes a 3% margin, 51bn sales and 1.6bn profit (Q1 2018) whereas Marston's has a 10% margin, 1080M sales 107M profit. Expectations of future profitability at Amazon are incredibly high the shareprice is 250 times current earnings - whereas Marstons is only 7. So Marstons is certainly valued very low - is it low enough? You are right about the rate of pub closures. But I think its very healthy, if only the restaurant sector had been shutting as many restaurants they might not be going bust quite so often! Over the last 6 years or so 60800 pubs in the UK have reduced by 10000, about an 18% decline? If Marstons is an average estate I'd expect to see a similar rate of decline of a few percent annually? So I've had a look and the answer is not simple. It appears that Marstons had an estate of around 2000 pubs a few years ago and now its 1568. But they sold 388 pubs for £144million and another 'portfolio' of 202 pubs. So as well as selling pubs they've also been opening pubs to end up with 1568 today. Of course selling pubs is about as good as closing them down if you don't get much cash for them. But I notice in the results to October 2014 they actually booked a surplus against the disposals of £37.5m ie they disposed of the pubs for more than their asset value on the books. That's a really key point. As well as a lowly rating on its profits and a reasonable margin it appears that Marstons pubs might actually be worth more disposed of than they are held on the balance sheet. So although pubs are shutting down - it appears that it might be because the pubs are worth more closed and sold on than operating as pubs? Not that I am promoting Marstons should sell off all its pubs and return the profits to shareholders, although others might do - but if they did so in an orderly fashion the likelihood is that I'd get back more than my shares are currently worth. (IMHO) The net asset value of the estate and the dividend cover make it likely that Martsons shareprice will not fall significantly in the future, so its a low risk investment for me - with a 7% return and the possibility of capital appreciation. I will leave my take on the new build pubs, lodges the 4000 room target and the breweries for another day. I think I will be reaching for the buy button again tomorrow, If you were hoping to convince me not to buy MARS then I am afraid you've been counterproductive QP - but thanks all the same, Cheers indeed, Illis
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