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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Marston's Plc LSE:MARS London Ordinary Share GB00B1JQDM80 ORD 7.375P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.30 -0.38% 78.45 2,011,453 16:29:55
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
78.00 78.55 79.00 77.25 78.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 515.50 -388.70 -1.80 497
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:05:18 O 1,250 78.552 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
14/1/202110:26Marstons...time to buy???5,644
08/1/202115:33Marstons - Needs Shaking Up !1,845
28/10/202016:01MARSTONS 2020 458
04/6/202013:38WHEN ARE THE FUCKIN PUBS OPENING? SINCE THE BEACHES ARE!!14
21/7/201810:24Is there Life on MARS?91

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Marston's (MARS) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
17:05:2678.551,250981.90O
16:35:1578.45264,827207,756.78UT
16:29:5578.552620.42O
16:28:4478.45736577.39AT
16:28:4478.457861.19AT
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Marston's (MARS) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
15/1/2021
08:20
Marston's Daily Update: Marston's Plc is listed in the Travel & Leisure sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker MARS. The last closing price for Marston's was 78.75p.
Marston's Plc has a 4 week average price of 64p and a 12 week average price of 42.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 128p while the 1 year low share price is currently 18.40p.
There are currently 633,991,930 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 6,354,881 shares. The market capitalisation of Marston's Plc is £497,366,669.09.
11/12/2020
11:12
philanderer: Peel Hunt eyes Marston’s recovery Pub and brewery group Marston’s (MARS) has a ‘roadmap’ for the future and Peel Hunt says there is scope for a ‘re-rating. Analyst Douglas Jack retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 95p on the shares, which fell 6% to 65.8p yesterday after posting an almost £400m annual loss. ‘Marston’s has a clear roadmap to debt reduction and resumed dividends with minimal disposal activity,’ said Jack. ‘Its investment in apps, shorter menus and outdoor areas have contributed to an 11% increase in guest satisfaction scores. This should all pay dividends as the sector recovers.’ Jack added that with debt reduction forecasts to continue and the vaccine roll out accelerating ‘there is scope for the shares to continue to re-rate’. HTTPS://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/the-expert-view-workspace-firstgroup-and-spectris/a1437266?section=funds-insider&_ga=2.181610151.1687547678.1607685024-1419783115.1607685024#i=6
30/10/2020
16:32
forwood: Interesting share price action. It is good news the joint venture is now finalised, though I did not expect anything else. Some were keen to sell the news but there has been as much determined buying to counter that and keep the share price in positive territory. With the completion of the JV, Marston's is now free to concentrate on the pub estate. I think they've demonstrated competence and flair in steering their way through the pandemic to date and in my view should be given the benefit of any doubt going forward. We should be looking beyond current difficulties to the end of the worst of the pandemic once the vaccines start rolling out Christmas / New Year.
18/9/2020
03:43
buywell3: Now the whole point of buywells recent posts is backed up by this recent piece buywell picks this key phrase merger and M&A activity in the restaurant and pubs sector has fallen away significantly buywell asked the question here quite early on and never got an answer What would be the effect on MARS share price if Carlsberg does not proceed ? hTtps://www.just-food.com/news/covid-19-food-industry-updates-thursday-17-september-free-to-read_id143295.aspx Plus UK Covid-19 cases are now surging hTtps://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-coronavirus-cases-soar-almost-22694084 how long can boris allow pubs and resaurants to remain open ?
27/7/2020
18:51
forwood: Well here's another! The Carlsberg deal is worth 41p a share in a direct cash payment due within 8 months. So everything else, the 1400 pub / hotel estate and the brewing business is worth just half a penny? Does the market really believe this deal isn't going to happen? Net debt now is £1,379m. Post the deal it could be £1106m. The remaining value in bricks and mortar, nearly £1.2bn, is totally unrecognised at the current price. It's equivalent to £1.76 a share. Obviously the key to the company's future success is the ability to ensure sufficient cash to offset real outgoings but with a huge estate, they have significant assets they can call on to see them through. Indeed the Jan update plan is to sell c £85-90m property, ostensibly for debt reduction. Marston's brewing business was valued at up to £580m on the basis of 13.0x adj. 2019 EBITDA, ie about £44m annually. The new deal will generate an estimated £24m running costs efficiencies and despite being a reduction in the overall percentage owned is expected to be broadly neutral in cash flow terms, taking account of Marston's share of the JV dividends. Now what we don't know is how CV19 is actually going to affect earnings in the JV, and how much income will be generated by the pub estate. There will be beer sales regardless of whether the pub estate is open or not. On the estate, there will be food sales and hotel reservations so long as the estate is open. Boris has said he doesn't want us to go back into total lockdown but there may be local lockdowns to contend with. That high level of uncertainty is depressing the share price of many companies but in my view the current market value is plainly nonsense. Marstons isn't going bust, doesn't need to raise cash now and has £millions tied up in property which could be sold if needed. Of course, the further down the share price goes, the more attractive the company becomes for those who might be interested in owning a lot of pubs and hotels! I simply don't believe that a Tory govt would prevent this deal going through. The share price has been driven down by a US shorter. When they close, they will have to buy c 6m shares. This is likely going to generate a huge spike in the SP, and I would not be surprised to see the share price double or even triple.
24/7/2020
03:57
forwood: First, I don't think you can apply a continuation of the £10m monthly burn rate to the months from early July when the pubs reopened. Marston's own view, stated a month ago is: 'We have prepared comprehensive plans for....our pubs to trade efficiently and profitably given restrictions still in place...albeit the trajectory of both revenue and earnings in this initial period are uncertain.' It's also hard to quantify the impact of govt support on the sector going forward. The VAT cut and direct support to food operations will benefit all pubs, not just the restaurants, and I expect footfall will be good, particularly in August. 10-15% of the estate will remain closed - presumably the less profitable, mainly city centre operations. Where previously staff were covered by furlough support, once this ends,I think we can expect that cost savings will include staff. It would be good to get a trading update on these initial months from July but I don't expect them to provide one until the capital markets day 'in the autumn' unless there is a material change to the 'trade efficiently and profitably' statement, which implies positive cash flow, even if accounting profit is negative. I really don't know what the impact on estate capital values will be. The interims statement said: 'The last external valuation of the Group's properties was undertaken in January 2018, and in August 2019 a further impairment of some of our food-led pubs was undertaken, reflecting competition in the eating-out market. The methodology for valuing our pubs uses long-term fair maintainable trade estimates as the basis for valuation, and we have not made any valuation adjustments to the carrying values of pubs at this interim stage. However, there is uncertainty as to the long-term impact, if any, that COVID-19 has on pub trading and valuation. We expect to have a better understanding of these issues by the time we report our Preliminary Results in November 2020, having reopened our pubs, and will consider whether valuation adjustments are appropriate at that time.' The important thing here is that valuation adjustments are non-cash and the estate value, as I have previously said, is significantly under reflected in the current share price Note 8 to the interim statement recorded a mere £2.1m revaluation/impairment fall in the period, while overall, the net book value increased from £2.35bn to 2.48bn due to IFRS 16 treatment of leases. Operationally, I see the critical period being September going forward to December / January, when I expect that the NHS will be to begin roll out vaccines which will completely change the business and social environment. I do expect to see CV19 outbreaks that may lead to temporary localised closures, but again the impact of these is impossible to quantify at this time, as is the likely govt response in terms of further support. In brief, I think we all know that the next 6 months is going to be hard on many, many businesses. Marston's is confident in the quality of its estate and brewing business and the Carlsberg deal is a significant game changer. Its completion has been deferred they reckon by another 3 months but come April next year they should have the capital injection which will both reduce the cost as well as the absolute amount of borrowings and give them some increased flexibility on costs next year. Other than that, I am not prepared to 2nd guess what the remainder of the year will bring. I do maintain however, that the Mars share price is way off what the business is worth despite current difficulties. We mustn't forget that their income is not wholly tied to the pub estate. Brewing and off-sales are a significant contributor and I haven't noticed anyone reducing their alcohol intake during these trying times!
20/7/2020
09:44
forwood: PrefInvestor There are many ways to value a company but primarily earning power is critical, as it defines how much can be paid in dividends. The vagaries of accounting can be such that a company makes little or no profit because it has to offset income for depreciation / amortization of large capital items such as plant and property, but can still pay a dividend because of its positive cash flow. Depreciation, as I expect you know, accounts for an historic cost, and does not consume cash. Marston's has a lot of property, mostly freehold but about 11% leaseholds, where the accounting standards have recently changed and increase the headline debt figure and the non-cash amount that must be set aside to cover their cost. The value in bricks and mortar is substantial even if the ability to earn income from it, via rent and/or operations, is limited. Marston's 1400 pub estate is not included in the Carlsberg deal, so the whole £273m, equivalent to 41p a share, can be used to pay down debt. If you say that the current share price today around 46p is the total market value of the company, then we have 1400 pubs/lodges valued by the market at £23,571 each (ie the remaining 5p a share), with 40% of a successful brewing business generating £44m EBITDA chucked in for free! Incidentally, the accounts value the pub estate at £2,273m rather than the £33m implied by the current SP! So this company valuation is clearly nonsensical. Net debt now is £1,379m. Post the deal it will be £1106m if the whole Carlsberg payment is used to pay it down - though looking at the repayment schedule, they only have £7.2m to repay in 2020 and £214m isn't due until 2027. So if you offset debt against the total value of the largely freehold estate, they've £1167m free capital in there, equivalent to £1.76 a share. Obviously the key to the company's future success is the ability to ensure sufficient cash to offset real outgoings but with a huge estate, they have significant assets they can call on to see them through. Indeed the Jan update plan is to sell c £85-90m property, ostensibly for debt reduction. Marston's brewing business was valued at up to £580m on the basis of 13.0x adj. 2019 EBITDA, ie about £44m annually. The new deal will generate an estimated £24m running costs efficiencies and despite being a reduction in the overall percentage owned is expected to be broadly neutral in cash flow terms, taking account of Marston's share of the JV dividends. Now what we don't know is how CV19 is actually going to affect earnings in the JV, and how much income will be generated by the pub estate. There will be beer sales regardless of whether the pub estate is open or not. On the estate, there will be food sales and hotel reservations so long as the estate is open. Boris has said he doesn't want us to go back into total lockdown but there may be local lockdowns to contend with. That high level of uncertainty is depressing the share price of many companies but in my view the current market value is plainly nonsense. Marstons isn't going bust, doesn't need to raise cash now and has £millions tied up in property which could be sold if needed. The share price is clearly being affected by the actions of a shorter, chucking more and more money at keeping the share price down and trying to take it lower. This morning for instance, they were able to reduce the share price almost 3% with about 30,000 AT sells. Why they are doing it is quite beyond me, other than they can and as yet there is insufficient buying from the institutional / professional AT market players to drive it higher. Despite that, ordinary punters keep buying stock and I imagine there is a huge shortfall in market maker stock which will have to be balanced at some point. Of course, the further down the share price goes, the more attractive the company becomes for those who might be interested in owning a lot of pubs and hotels! when the shorts do actually close, they will have to buy c 6m shares. This is likely going to generate a huge spike in the SP, and I would not be surprised to see the share price double or even triple.
20/7/2020
08:00
prefinvestor: The idea that you can put a few numbers into a spreadsheet and come up with a totally accurate figure for what a company’s share price should be on a day to day basis is clearly nonsense, that has never been my objective. However I DO believe that it should be possible to use the company’s fundamentals to construct an estimate of what level of share price is 'justified', to an accuracy of perhaps 10-15p in the case of MARS. Such a figure should be devoid of market sentiment which could well be a significant contributing factor to where the actual share price is trading ATM. Having looked through the accounts IMV it is clear that MARS is (and has been) earning very little from its operations, it has been barely profitable - even in normal times. All of the value in the business therefore seems to me to be in the property, plant and equipment. My approach to this problem has therefore been based on estimating the NAV per share of the company (assets – liabilities divided by no of shares) and assuming that this will provide a reasonable approximation to what the MARS share price might eventually be. My model includes no contribution to the estimate from earnings - due to its lack of them. This approach at least has the advantage that it produces a valuation based on the whole enterprise’s assets and liabilities (including the debts) and not just a part of them (as is the case with the £580M for the brewing business equates to 88p a share type approach). Obviously the NAV per share can be radically different to actual market share price and market sentiment can and will play a huge part in determining that. My motivation for doing this analysis has been quite simple, if the company is really worth 100p+ then given where it sits today it would be worth investing. If its really only worth 50-60p then it isnt. I have long since decided that I am not interested. I fully accept that my analysis could easily be wrong and may have produced an inaccurate estimate. Readers should not trust in my figures being accurate and should do their own research and make their own decisions. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion though. That’s what share discussion boards like this are all about isnt it ?, well I think it is. Good luck to all holders. I shall not be joining you.
16/7/2020
04:26
prefinvestor: Well the pubs are back open again but I for one won’t be going near them, why risk it ?. I’ll do my drinking at home thanks where it’s much cheaper anyway. If many other people think that way then that’s not going to be good for MARS profits. Much of the market got excited by the talk of a vaccine yesterday, but the MARS share price didn’t really join in and seems firmly stuck in the 40s, I note that JDW and MAB made a more significant 3%+ move. Really not sure what it’s going to take to move these higher ?. Good luck to all holders. Pref
08/7/2020
08:33
prefinvestor: Well @knockknock as I explained in one of my earlier posts here I dont short as I am purely a "buy and hold" type investor. Regarding your comment on company profitability all I can say is if you build your castle on poor foundations you shouldnt be surprised when the inevitable happens. If a company that you invest in doesnt make a profit then come results time its share price will surely suffer. MARS share price dropped to ~30p because the market took a poor view of its prospects in the current virus impacted environment IMHO. The JV was a clever ploy to both change the game and secure some cash for Marstons to pay off some of its debt, but it hasnt changed the overall picture IMV. Hence the share price is falling once again. Thats how I see things anyway, could be wrong as always. I have no holdings in MARS of any kind (long or short) as I decided from the start based on my initial analysis that this was not for me.
06/7/2020
14:02
jeffian: Bayliner75, "Do we know why Marstons area not really getting passed this 55p level." Some time ago, I posted this on the other MARS thread (it got a 'thumbs down'!) "jeffian - 24 Jun 2020 - 10:33:30 - 4656 of 4784Marstons...time to buy??? - MARS ............. I fear bulls are putting much too much faith in the re-opening of pubs to drive the share price up in the short term. Firstly, it's a known fact so it's already in the price but, more importantly, having the pubs open is one thing but having them open profitably is something else entirely. Social distancing, ordering by app, plastic booths, no cash payments, table service only...... it doesn't sound like the pub experience most of us know and love. Of course some of us will still go (I can' wait!) but if they're operating at, say, 50% capacity then the odds are MARS will be loss-making. My take, FWIW, is that the Carlsberg deal underpins the price at this level but I can't see it going significantly higher until the pubs are largely free of Covid restrictions."
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