Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[kelso29] 19/11/2024 11:38

Also today, JP Morgan cuts M&B and Young's and co. So they must particularly like Marston's!

[jeffian] 19/11/2024 10:39

If only. Go on, then!

[skinny] 19/11/2024 09:39

FWIW :- JPMorgan raises Marston's price target to 78 (68) pence - 'overweight'

[barnes4] 18/11/2024 08:09

Where is ole KY

[kelso29] 17/11/2024 21:27

Quite a few of my shares in my portfolio have took a dive in the last month, mainly due to an increase in short positions eg ITV, EVOKE, VANQ, However I see that MARS doesn't have any declared shorts (maybe there are some below the 0.5% reporting threshold). I'm taking this as a positive, as I believe shorts are thinking that there isn't much downside from here, but there could be a lot of upside

[wigwammer] 17/11/2024 07:57

"Some of course refuse to believe the budget has any impact..." No. it was simply highlighted that getting to a firm number was difficult, that you have a history of making wildly inaccurate guesstimates, that you have a history of only seeing the negative side of things (except when the shares are near recent peaks), that you ignore valuation etc etc.. Apart from all that, really great stuff :)

[skinny] 16/11/2024 17:06

.

"But subsequently shares in the £231million company have dropped by 14 per cent amid the Budget-fall-out this past month.

Again, analysts are confident, setting an average target price of 60p. This represents a big bet on the implementation of the ambitious new strategy."

[fenners66] 14/11/2024 12:54

Youngs who had 7172 employees in April - but has added another business since then , says the Budget will cost them £11m next year.

With more employees on Mars books I may have understated the impact here.

Some of course refuse to believe the budget has any impact...

[jubberjim] 14/11/2024 07:58

That report in the press re MAB is going to put the leisure business under more pressure.

Don't expect any let up soon but even more scrutiny.

Pubs and hospitality businesses don't have enough problems

Be safe

[barnes4] 13/11/2024 08:07

Oh dear KY boi

[rmillaree] 11/11/2024 14:18

ref the stopping of pension payments - is this not always just potentially a temporary stopgap. They have preumably 3 yearly pension reviews and any one of those reviews i would expect could forec payments to restart if they have come to a stop previously?

Perhaps they are lucky enough to be in a sweet spot the next 3 years that they may have a mini break but with £300 mill plus pension pot they are obligated to fund the facts its ok now, and not needing cash now doesnt mean that will continue to be the case medium term imho.

Hey ho i am not going to knock teh bonus of payments potnetiall stopping even if thats just for the next 3 years - every penny counts as they say.

[wigwammer] 11/11/2024 13:55

The raft of retail and leisure companies that have NOT provided calculations is far larger. Is it not?

[fenners66] 11/11/2024 13:52

From the DM today

"In a furious letter to the Chancellor, Premier Inn, Slug & Lettuce and Fuller's have demanded tweaks to Labour's 'regressive' plans - which will heap an extra £3.4bn on the sector.

They say hospitality is unfairly hit by changes and drastic consequences will include small businesses collapsing and job losses.

Rachel Reeves has hiked the rate paid by employees on their earnings while a lower threshold means thousands of part-time staff are now included in the tax for the first time.

They have called for an exemption for lower band taxpayers who work fewer than 20 hours per week to support venues who hire student bartenders and other flexible workers"

Signatories of the latest plea include Simon Emeny, chief executive of Fuller's, Bob Ivell, chairman of Mitchells & Butlers, David McDowall, chief executive of Slug & Lettuce owner Stonegate Group and Dominic Paul, chief executive of Premier Inn owner Whitbread.


Seems that industry leaders entirely agree that they are going to be hard hit and that student bartenders are going to be at the forefront of that.
Some of us got that straight away - others have not.

[fenners66] 11/11/2024 11:16

A raft of retail and leisure companies have been coming out with calculations of how much the budget changes are going to cost them , radio headlines about pubs having to cut staff , increase prices and possibly close...
Where are the Marston's numbers?
After all I had a stab at them straight away and I don't have access to the books....

[skinny] 04/11/2024 14:59

30th November normally - you only need 500 shares!

"The vouchers provide you with 30% off food at participating pubs."

[fenners66] 04/11/2024 14:37

I have never encouraged anyone to sell or buy - its their decision.

[cruelladeville] 04/11/2024 14:07

Bought a few thousand Marstons shares a while ago. It's sometime in November they issue hotel discount vouchers for the following twelve months?

[wigwammer] 04/11/2024 06:53

Thank you for conceding fenners that the shares have hardly moved since the budget was announced, contrary to what you previously suggested. Re share price - the shares are circa 50% up on the 52 week low (where you encouraged people to sell) and around 17% down from the 52 week high (where you encouraged people to buy). No one suggesting everything is rosy, but investment is about valuation, not just repeating consensual stories

[barnes4] 03/11/2024 21:49

Share price lower = KY bought in

[fenners66] 03/11/2024 21:46

Actually share price is lower now than its been for a month - the same time frame that rumours about the budget have been circulating.

Once the full impact of the budget sank in the shares resumed falling

You have referred to the rise over the past couple of months - but not referred to the 17.6% fall over the last 4 weeks never mind its all rosy ...

[wigwammer] 02/11/2024 19:39

"You deny its anything to do with the budget.." Yes because the shares are at the same level now as they were in the hours immediately before the budget. There has been no impact worth mentioning so far.. "£25bn doesn't arrive out of thin air" - never claimed it did and I'm sure Marstons will contribute, probably not the full £25bn though.. Yes - for perspective the £50m FCF expectation covers your guesstimated wage impact more than 6-8 times over.. The company stated at the interims (last announcement) that they expect the £6m deficit payment to cease end 2024. Yes - that £6m expectation is far more concrete than your wage guesstimate (posters may recall your last guesstimate relating to fcf this year)... ATB

[barnes4] 02/11/2024 12:23

Ask KY boi why he invested in Mars
I am really curious 😂😂😂😂8514;

[fenners66] 02/11/2024 11:44

So wigwammer you claimed that the shares fell 31st because global markets were down , so clearly as global markets were strongly up yesterday that explains why Marstons rose too. Oh hang on Marstons were down again...
You deny its anything to do with the budget whilst the employers in the UK are digesting the long-term impact and preparing to halt hiring or reduce staff numbers .

£25bn just arrives at the treasury from thin air does it ?

[wigwammer] 01/11/2024 15:56

And that £6m guesstimate is entirely offset by the fall out of the pension top up which ends this year. A concrete detail yet repeatedly ignored.. Are Marstons likely to be sidelined by industry wide wage cost increases? Given they are targeting £50m+ fcf pa, seems far more likely they consolidate their position as weaker players (again) fall by the wayside. Sub 0.5x book looks good value. GLA

[fenners66] 01/11/2024 15:09

wigwammer - highlighting the increase in NLW is omitting the vast majority of the wage cost rise (I would hope you well know that , as being misleading is one thing , being totally ignorant and unable to process the real cost implications is something else).

So just in case you cannot comprehend the detail - its the lowering of the Ers NIC threshold by £4100 and increasing NICs at the same time that will affect almost all of the Marston's employees.
Anyone earning 9100 a year will cost an extra £615
Those part time workers on NLW and below will now go into the Ers Calculation for the first time.

Reviewing the 2023 accounts it is possible to work out based on their notes that about 10% of the workforce were on NLW their cost will once again be likely c £2m+
But the NI impact across the piece will impact the other 90% this time and that will likely be over £6m

So combined about £8m per annum - which was about 25% of the underlying 2023 profit.