Toby Carvery (M&B) getting lots of bad press over cutting down a 500 year old oak. Marstons could gain some of their customers |
Manageable debt lower interest rate potential., turnover approaching £1bn.
Net assets of over 100p per share.
A market cap of £223m is derisory. |
I'm not sure it "has lost touch with fundamentals", has it? Maybe on NAV (arguably, if you accept the values) but surely it needs to see sustained improvement in profits (real, not "underlying"), cash generation and a dividend before it is likely to return to anything like former levels? |
Gradually recovering.
Valuation is too low, is has lost touch with fundamentals.
Looking for north of 50p here. |
Even if you're of the view that the asset valuation is a bit toppy, we still have a company forecasting £50m recurring FCF with a mcap of barely 4x that. |
It happens all too often in the plc casino markets...when a company rejects a bid for whatever reason be it arrogance or other the share price drifts away in the opposite direction... |
Too late ? Are you sure ? The Board previously rejected a bid of over £1 would they still be arrogant enough to reject any other bid ?
But who would be foolish enough to bid in the current climate ? |
The trouble with sitting on the fence with a stock you believe to be cheap, waiting for the right time, is that a bid can materialise at any time. And you're then too late. |
Perhaps. Meanwhile, go into almost any Marstons venue and tell me that they don't have something the others don't.
Food offers every day of the week, vast majority of reviews are glowing, good atmosphere, noticeably clean (particularly compared to some of the real grot holes about, which is something a lot of customers comment on), and most importantly, busy, even on week nights.
This is while many other pubs around them are barely getting by.
Share price weakness in the meantime is likely, but people still take their families out even during recessions - not saying there will be a recession, but mentioned for balance.
A solid business with a good offering such as Marstons will pick up where others drop, and when all the sheep come stampeding back into markets shareholders here will clean up.
Just keep some cash ready for those dips. |
You really think punters are rushing to the pubs, seven bills going up this week, crippling blow to consumers.
Global recession brewing, stagflation, there is no value, no rush to buy anything, many stocks with simply fade into penny shares and a large number of AIM stocks won’t survive.
Btw 6.1M American are behind on their mortgage payments, the highest in 20 years🚨 |
Boffster, don’t fight the markets they are bigger than you or me.
Trend is clearly down, dead cat bounces, investors want serious improvement in their numbers, reapply in Q4
I listen to Buffett, he’s sitting on $300 Billion of cash, he doesn’t see any value in equities at present. |
I'm not being fazed by the likes of 'NY Boy' who probably haven't set foot in a Marston's for years, If they did they'd know the 'people going out any more' mantra is simply not true. Trading at around 1/3rd of NAV, value will out in the end. Patience needed |
Well Marston's has had a 40% crash.... and some.. |
Things looking fragile.
We have not had a 40% crash for a while.
How quickly we forget.
1987 2003 2008 2020 |
Long term support gone, people are not going out spending in pubs like dem olden days, times have changed completely. Global recession fears mounting, US is in trouble, that means Uk will follow, too weak to stand on its own.
Buffett is sitting on a $300 Billion cash pile for a very good reason..he knows there is nothing worth buying at current market valuations 🤷🏿‍♀️ |
 I fear we are still some way away from any resumption of dividends. I don't see any significant rerating occuring until it restarts paying at least a small dividend.
errrrr - in a nutshell yes. debt is still way to high here. easiest returns will be made by reducing debt and financing costs and increaisng eps and company being rated on reasonable multiple of eps.
cant think of anythjing more nonsensical than resuming dividends - the reason they had to go cap in hand to shareholders multiple times in last 15 years and they had to sell of crown jewels is that they paid dividend when it was not sensible in any manner to do so. Hey ho peoiple who run these companies are often folld that can see that at soem stage if things are going well there will be more troubled times ahead.
ref acquisitions expansion - not a fan at present . however if they can add to annual profits by getting deal at right price or have complelling payback ref new sites. I would much rather though they get basics right doint expand and concentrate on paying debt down. If they can unlock freehold value close to bok value on underperoming sites then that would be a brucie bonus.
Note despite positive tones company from the company behind the scenes the eps forecasts for this year and next have been in downward trend over the last 12 months. so whilst they say its tickety boo the level of actual cash profits they will make inst in the bag ref current estimates. I think we wll agree there are headwinds from next month !! - hopefully mostly baked in to current numbers but i wouldnt have high confidence they will hit current targets !! |
Awful chart, in fact at a critical long term support level, this has to hold or dire. Simple facts punters are going out as much,wasting money on overpriced drinks, instead treating the elves to city breaks, spa treatments etc
The charts don’t lie, after Reeves Spring Statement (dire, stagflation and recession ahead, it will be a troubling year. Also street crime is out of control, people just don’t feel safe going out these days.UK is finished, whites will be under Sharia Law inside 10 years |
City AM - "Spring Statement 2025: ‘Missed opportunity’ to avoid hospitality cliff edge"
Anyone who's interested can read it over there - thus saving those with their heads in the sand from
having to read any of it on here.... |
The CMD talked about "targeted pub acquisitions" within a few years. I didn't like that at all. Get the debt down to non-problematic levels and then do fat dividends/buybacks. Buying pubs at something approximating book value would be really stupid.
Of course, if the shares are north of 100p by then, I suppose there would be nothing wrong with acquisitions. It seems quite unlikely at the moment. |
Happy to wait, keep the dividend and reduce debt.
Warren Buffett went years without paying dividends at Berkshire Hathaway. |
I fear we are still some way away from any resumption of dividends. I don't see any significant rerating occuring until it restarts paying at least a small dividend. |
still optimistic about this share.
MARS seem to be trading well and have debt under control.
Last year's balance sheet shows that net asset value should increase from 100p to 140p due to organic growth over the medium term..
Good cash control and strategic disposal of non core assets could reduce debt further.
Assets are marketable.
The combination of net assets well north of 100p per share and low debt with good trading makes this a bargain at today's price.
A feature of the London market and its low liquidity are underpriced shares such as these. |
Stagflation is creating this awful looking chart, recession coming, all restaurants bars, clubs pubs are closing due to changing pattern of next gen. They would rather eat, more healthier foods, they are drinking much less alcohol and it’s far to expensive to go out on a regular basis. Companies in the sector are facing rising employee costs and rising raw materials.
This gen would rather go and spend on health products, going away for City breaks, having friends around for a dinner party etc. Clearly these will tread water for a long time yet |
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