Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 08/1/2009 16:00

Cummon guys, wake up GNK, PUB, JDW, ETI all moving and MARS is the besat of the lot imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/1/2009 12:11

Well I was down the old battle cruiser last night. Absolutely packed with a quiz on, on the coldest night of the year. Punters paying to play the quize, bar chock-a-block on a bitterly cold night.

We just need a half decent summer and the like for like sales will rocket compared to last summer and it will be the comparisons that move the pub shares imo.

Get a bit of sun and the old rub-a-dub soon fills up with the punters and the old pig's ear flows imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 06/1/2009 14:45

looks like a break to a new recent high coming soon - getting very active.

CR

[milacs] 02/1/2009 09:06

Surely you mean JDW and MARS.

M

[cockneyrebel] 30/12/2008 07:56

Globe Pub Co and Premium Bars both nearly bust - lots of competition disappearing everywhere - sad for those that work there but good news for ETI and MARS etc.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 20/12/2008 04:18

Cheers and a merry Christmas to you L G. :-)

Look, MARS excites me so much I'm up at 4am reading about them! :-)

CR

[lord gnome] 19/12/2008 20:59

You could well be right CR - but in this market there's plenty more fish in the sea. It will stay on my watchlist and I'll buy if it comes into range - if not, c'est la vie and good luck to all holders. I've just done my bit for your turnover and profits by stocking up on Marstons beers for Christmas. The Jennings Cumberland Ales are superb.

[gorse] 19/12/2008 16:16

4. The way things have been, I actually 'trade down' by eating at home. Tonight, 'Peppered Mackerel with Steamed Vegetables'.

[jeffian] 19/12/2008 15:55

4. More eating out in pubs as people 'trade down' from restaurants. 25% of all 'meals out' now taken in pubs.

[gorse] 19/12/2008 11:55

Pubs have two/three positive forces for them this coming year compared to 2008:

1. More people here: fewer trips abroad, more tourists (knackered £).
2. Better weather, surely!
3. Cheaper petrol to get about and out to pubs.

[lord gnome] 19/12/2008 11:47

Hmmmm - not so sure about the short term CR. I can see these getting back to around a £ again in the new year once the trading updates start to come in. It's certainly tough out there at present. I certainly hope they do come back as I want some for 90p, please :-))

[cockneyrebel] 19/12/2008 11:34

I can's see how any lunatic wants to sell these at this price - but probably the same lunatics that were buying at £5 lol.

11% yield that looks safer than government debt - PE 5 , divi cover two times, Great manangement and directors buying.

I dunno about you but if I have a good day I have a scotch at night, if I have a bad day I have 3 scotches - recession means an increse in sales in many respects. PUB, Green King, JD Wetherspoon (breaking out and making loads of jobs), Enterprise Inns all doing well but the anal-lists think we'll never go in a pub again. Favct is these co's have survived a recession and a smoking ban and still performed well. As the little pubs that are bdly run start to struggle it will be class like MARS that win through and benefit from less competition imo.

Those selling today will be buying these back off me @ a fiver down the line again.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 17/12/2008 08:33

that ssecure 13.27p divi will look even more attractive to buyers now.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 16/12/2008 08:42

8.5p divi is yours if you hold at the close tonight.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 12/12/2008 20:41

nice post jeffian - any stock with a medium amount of debt is being priced as if it will never be able to borrow again, never raise funds etc. You're right about anal-lists to - at the hight of the market they had astronomic forecasts and PE ratios with buy recs on everything that moved - I couldn't find a bargain then myself. Now there's a wealth of stocks out there paying divi's of a huge size (compared to near zero on gilts of a year or less) and where the risk is every bit as good as Gordon's cred.

If you like good yields and growth then DWN is an interesting one - A yield of near 10% still despite the recent rise, earnings growing, directors buying. That's the formula to look for imo MARS looks like it might just fit that if their earnings are rising. At worst they seem around flat which won't worry the divi imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 12/12/2008 20:24

Have you watched the video presentation on the website?

I've compared all the pub co's and outside JDWeth MAR looks like the best performer. They all have high debt and high value property portfolios.

Sales and earnings look like they are performing best at MARS.

In the video presentation they CEO seems to be confident regarding forthcoming Xmas trading - interesting that the directors are buying shortly after the results having said that in the presentation.

Seems you get a 7p+ final divi if you are holding on Tues night - that's a 20p yield over the next 53 weeks.

If you read the results they also seem to be saying they would be content if divi cover went below 2 and sound rather proud of their average 12% return in yield on average over 10 years, which makes me think they won't cut the divi.

Think I might have a few more of these - the chart lookis like it just made a double bottom perhaps. If they are growing earnings and maintain that divi these are going to double over time imo - any stocks growing earnings and paying a yield like that are likely to be firmer than most stocks, especially if the bebt is sorted for several years imo.

CR

[jeffian] 12/12/2008 20:21

B*gger the IC. They haven't an original idea in their heads. On a general point which relates to the whole sector, where does this idea come from that they're all going to have to waive the divi? I think it's fashion and a herd mentality (at least among analysts and commentators) has come into play. Most of them have divi cover of 2-2.5x which was previously considered conservative and most of them neither have problems with banking covenants nor repayment schedules. MARS has just announced an extension of its banking facilities to 2013. The market is trying to bully these companies into cutting dividends, but what would it achieve? Certainly not enough saving to make any substantial difference to their debts, but enough to damage their share price further as funds (which, in the absence of capital growth like their divis) move to other income stocks. This banking crisis is making people behave like headless chickens; any debt is 'too much' debt. If the market's got it wrong (as they did up to year 2000), there's a lot of money to be made here as we come out of recession. I personally think MARS and GNK are strongest due to their spread of interests but if the pubco's, which are priced to go bust, don't, there's rich pickings there too.

Don't get frightened by fashion, keep an eye on the fundamentals.

Regards, Ian

[lord gnome] 12/12/2008 16:10

Results write-up in IC today. They don't like the debt levels and can't see the divi being held for another year. I wouldn't buy these now, as I believe we will see the market take another dive in the new year. I think we will be able to get some at less than £1 again before too long.

[cockneyrebel] 12/12/2008 15:36

Nice director buying yesterday and today - yesterday's director buying 70K when he only owned 10K to start with.

Another director buying 40K+ today.

Nice if they maintain that 11% yield.

CR

[lord gnome] 05/12/2008 15:41

Copied from Digital Look:

That yield pales in to insignifcance when compared with brewer and pub owner Marston's, which now offers a 14% yield after maintaining its final dividend in its full year results earlier today.
Although the beer group has debt of £1,268m, this has remained level from the interim stage and is not foreseen as a problem by stockbroker KBC Peel Hunt.
"Debt passes our stress testing," said KBC analyst Paul Hickman.
"In the last week we have stress-tested all our models with a 10% LFL [like-for-like] decline assumption. Marston's is one of only three [in the sector] that clearly satisfies its default and cash trap covenants under those conditions. The other two are Greene King and Mitchells & Butlers," Hickman added.
KBC's 2009 earnings forecasts are at the bottom of the market range after being downgraded by 18% to profit before tax of £71.6m and earnings per share of 19.7p following this morning's 2008 results.
Based on KBC's own earnings estimates, Marston's is trading at a 10% projected price/earnings ration discount to sector peer Greene King. KBC retains its "buy" recommendation with a price target of 167p.

[gbb483] 05/12/2008 15:13

It certainly beats putting your money in a bank or bui1ding socie1y. I wonder where the fund5 for mortgages is going to come from if this continues?