Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[5dally] 30/9/2009 13:27

Good buying opp. IMO

[jeffian] 30/9/2009 12:45

Well they're getting something down but, unfortunately, it seems to be the share price at the moment!

[diku] 30/9/2009 10:34

more like a drinking session..get those analyst/investors drunk and make them to issue Buy notes!...heha..

[timbo003] 30/9/2009 08:48

I see that there's an analyst/investor meeting today being held at a couple of the Marstons pubs. I know the one in Lutterworth quite well and use it as an alternative to the service stations whenever I travel North on the M1....big car park, roomy pub, great food, nice beer, friendly staff and there is comfortable accomodation right next door if you need it. Much nicer than Watford Gap!

The RNS states that the presentations should be available on the Web site later, so I'll look out for that.

[milacs] 28/9/2009 13:16

Ian

Thanks for taking time out to answer my question comprehensively.

I have made a quick comparison between MARS AND GNK and found the average low/high p/e to be similar on a historical basis at 10/16. If the earnings predictions are correct then 10.3 for Marstons give a potential for 103p to 165p;For GNK at 48p gives 480p to 768p.

Comparing the share price graphs normalising to 100 in 2005 one can see the two lines fell almost on top of each other until late 2008 when MARS dropped off significantly against GNK. Today the relative standing are MARS-65 and GHK-105 so Marstons has some catching up to do.

Does not look like there is a great deal of difference between the two. I think I will hold off until one or the other gives me a potential doubling in 2010.

I have to make up my losses on the biotech one way or another.

regards.

M

[jeffian] 27/9/2009 17:45

hi milacs,

If there's one thing you should have learned from our mutual interest in a certain bio-tech, it's to never take "advice" from an anonymous avatar on a free bb! With that caveat, my view on MARS as follows -

Along with Greene King (GNK), these are the two former 'regional' brewers which thrived in the upheaval created by the Beer Orders and used the opportunity to turn themselves into quasi-nationals. Their 'integrated' model (that is, they brew, distribute, wholesale, retail and own and operate both tenanted and directly-managed pubs) became very unfashionable when the market (in its wisdom!) was promoting 'focus' on single skills with brewers separated from pub owners and companies specialising in solely Managed Houses (JDW, MAB etc) or tenanted estates (ETI, PUB). I am a great fan of the integrated model, whose strength across a range of businesses gives it some protection from pain in any one, as has been experienced in the downturn by brewers and both Managed and tenanted pub operators.

Both are historically cheap at the moment, with MARS trading on a PER around 10x and a divi yield around 5% and GNK on 8x and 5.3%. My personal view is that GNK has the better management and should be at a premium to MARS rather than the other way round, but over the long term one would expect both to return to the sector mesne average of 12-14x earnings when the market recovers. Bearish points about MARS include the fact that they seriously p-ed off the City with their Rights Issue which was seen as too cheap, too dilutive and not strictly necessary and once the City takes against you they can go on punishing your shares for some time. I'm also not sure about MARS' obsession with 'Destination' pubs (see the above post about Travelodge deal and one of their stated reasons for raising funds in the Rights Issue). They are hugely expensive to develop (aren't there enough distressed sales about? You can buy 'em cheaper than building 'em!) and rely on boom conditions in the business traveller, hotel and holiday markets and assume that car travel will remain relatively free'n'easy and cheap. In a downturn, if people stop using their cars or hotels so much, you've basically got a barn in a field! I like Community pubs, me, and thankfully that's what the MARS and GNK estates mainly contain.

I have shares in both MARS and GNK and took up my Rights in full in both cases. My personal belief is that GNK has the better management and will outperform MARS.

Regards, Ian

[timbo003] 27/9/2009 15:18

See article in today's Mail on Sunday



So I wonder where most of the 100 or so guests (per travelodge) are going to choose to eat and drink each evening, sounds like a good plan to me!

[milacs] 26/9/2009 17:13

jeffian

What is your current take on Marstons prospects.

I am thinking of buying shares and would like your advice.

Didn't realise you had been in the pub trade.

M

[gswredland] 11/9/2009 18:38

bit of a breakout going on here.

[diku] 11/9/2009 15:28

once again an intraday island formation...

[diku] 11/9/2009 12:38

I would like to see it close at 110p or above...

[5dally] 11/9/2009 11:44

Nice to see the rise tho :-)

[jeffian] 11/9/2009 11:43

Probably just reaction to good JDW figures this morning and GNK the other day.

[baracus61] 11/9/2009 10:58

This looks exciting.....what's going on?

[gswredland] 09/9/2009 14:20

looks like it. seriously going for it now

[diku] 09/9/2009 14:05

do we have a break out here?...

[5dally] 08/9/2009 10:58

badtime,,,good timing :-)

[badtime] 08/9/2009 09:12

Took a nibble last week

[diku] 08/9/2009 08:54

what chance of M/A activity within this sector?..

[timbo003] 08/9/2009 08:53

Very reassuring update from Green King today which is no doubt helping sentiment



(I hold both MARS and GNK)

[diku] 08/9/2009 08:51

no I am here...looks like a breakout...it is at resistance level..needs to breach 110p...

[5dally] 08/9/2009 08:50

Very quiet on here

[5dally] 08/9/2009 08:38

So much buying today and the share price looking healthy :-)

[diku] 04/9/2009 09:44

they said long term on Lloy at 1000p in 1997?...say no more, as the list is endless!!!...

[fortyfive] 04/9/2009 09:02

what rally.....MARS is a good long term share but may get cheaper first...