Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 06/12/2018 16:47

55p breaks

[smurfy2001] 06/12/2018 16:41

700 points down on the DOW hoping for a bounce Friday if the Huawei CFO is freed. Well the news are blaming the market volatility on her arrest ;)

[stonedyou] 06/12/2018 16:33

Ladeside - Surely Bonney Prince Charlies expecting all the clans of Scotland

to rally to his banner, to fight the English was fun.....nier!

[tradejunkie2] 06/12/2018 16:27

Wrong deal smurfy

[ladeside] 06/12/2018 16:24

More than Brexit we need to be worrying about...........

[smurfy2001] 06/12/2018 16:21

I've picked up 100,768 shares @ 0.54663 excluding costs.

Bit of a risky trade given the Brexit trade deal.

[ladeside] 06/12/2018 16:01

Yes Minerve, the same people probably still think the Russians are Communist........

[minerve] 06/12/2018 15:34

LADESIDE

It was such a stupid comment I couldn't comment. Unbelievable. Tells you all you need to know about the resident oracle cheshire pete, or should that be cheshire peat? His brain must be made out of the brown stuff.

[extrovert] 06/12/2018 15:31

Why would you want a moonboy like Boris be PM? he can't remember to declare his earnings, just like the rest of those in power fiddling wherever they can.

[ladeside] 06/12/2018 15:20

"J P Morgan and Goldmann Sachs lefties too"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

That's got to be the funniest statement I've ever read in my life !!!

[cheshire pete] 06/12/2018 14:58

J P Morgan and Goldmann Sachs lefties too.

[cheshire pete] 06/12/2018 14:56

BBC left and untrustworthy end of.
Had new beamers for last 20 years, won't buy another. As for holidays in Europe they are now a thing of the past too, food is mostly overpriced rubbish anyway plus all the hassle at airports, terrorism etc. Plenty of places in the UK to visit.
Agree May deranged, anyone else who had led the negotiations as badly and deceived the electorate would have had the decency to resign. Not even sure she will when the WA is voted down next week, give her a day or so then get the letters in > 48.
Boris for PM, LEAVE and WTO. Enough of this farce.

[polar fox] 06/12/2018 14:49

SKY: Eastbourne MP Stephen Lloyd has resigned the Liberal Democrat whip over Brexit.

[grahamite2] 06/12/2018 14:46

stonedyou, sorry! But - no offence - valuable nuggets can get a bit lost in an avalanche!

[minerve] 06/12/2018 14:44

We shift from 20-60-20 (no deal-orderly exit-no Brexit) probabilities to 10-50-40

[The ECJ] indication] makes “no deal” significantly less likely. The circumstances around a “no deal” Brexit always looked rather specific, and required that the House of Commons was not sufficiently unified to prevent a pro-Brexit PM moving down this path. The possibility of revoking Article 50 potentially gives the Commons both an ability to (a) stop the Brexit process and (b) do so without removing the PM via a confidence vote (or other forms of pressure). At this point in time, there is some ambiguity about exactly where the right of revocation in the UK would lie. But, given the way in which the Supreme Court justified the need for an Act of Parliament in order to notify of the intent to withdraw, it looks very likely to us that this would ultimately be a right of Parliament rather than the executive. Perhaps Gina Miller or others already have a legal case to establish this clearly in mind.

Second, it makes “no Brexit (at least for now)” more likely. One of the issues about a second referendum has, in our view, always been the need for an Article 50 extension and potential EU involvement in the design of that referendum. The UK now appears to have the option of revoking unilaterally and taking a period of time of its own choosing to decide what happens next. That time could be used to hold a second referendum on terms entirely decided by the UK. It could also, or alternatively, be used to establish a different approach to a withdrawal negotiation before notifying of the intent to withdraw once again. That could be a more aggressive Brexiteer-inspired approach to the negotiations, or a pivot toward“Norway plus”, for example. And regardless of the initial intent among politicians as the Article 50 notification was revoked, subsequent political events could push the UK onto a different path (for example, what happens if the Government suffers a vote of no confidence or two-thirds of MPs vote for an early election after a revocation). Note also that a decision to revoke the Article 50 notification does not necessarily mean that a subsequent renotification and exit from the EU would take a minimum of two years. If the withdrawal agreement terms were settled quickly after a subsequent renotification, it could set an earlier date for the UK’s exit. The text of Article 50 explicitly allows the withdrawal agreement to set either an earlier or later date than two years from notification for the exit.

Third, the ability to withdraw the Article 50 notification unilaterally gives the UK alternatives to exiting underthe terms of the withdrawal agreement that we did not anticipate it would have. Without that right, it looked likely to us that the EU would continue to exert pressure on the UK to accept the Withdrawal Agreement that has been negotiated with the threat of a “no deal” Brexit looming in the background. The EU had a degree of control of the “no deal” risk by the possibility of offering a last minute extension of Article 50 to the UK if that pressure was unsuccessful. However, now the balance of “control”; around the Article 50 ‘deadline̵7; looks more equal, as the UK has the possibility of unilateral revocation in its back pocket should negotiations “go to the wire”. In our view, that serves to both (a) make acceptance of the existing withdrawal agreement less likely, and (b) raises the possibility of both the UK’s internal political wrangling over Brexit, and its attempts to negotiate with the EU, extending further into 2019. We had previously thought that the pressure of a potential “no deal” and the need to complete legislative procedures ahead of a March exit would force a resolution of the UK’s domestic position on Brexit by the end of January, but it now looks more likely that could persist for longer.

We take the probability of “no deal” in the first half of 2019 down from 20% to 10%. We take the probability of an orderly negotiated Brexit down from 60% to 50%. And we push the possibility of “no Brexit” up from 20% to 40%. Taken together, that means a 60-40 call on Brexit occurring in the first half of 2019, as opposed to 80-20 previously. Within the “no Brexit” scenarios, a unilateral revocation on the UK’s part looks more likely to us than a joint UK-EU decision to extend the Article 50 negotiating period and thereby keep the existing clock running. And a second referendum strikes us as rather more likely than a general election to be driving a decision to revoke. Hence, within that 40% “no Brexit” possibility, we see a 25% chance of a revocation to facilitate a second referendum, and a 15% chance that it is to facilitate a general election.

JP Morgan courtesy of FT.

[grahamite2] 06/12/2018 14:44

diku, honestly, what do you think? 4 ardent remainers and 1 for leave.

The BBC abandoned even the pretense of impartiality a long time ago.

[stonedyou] 06/12/2018 14:33

Full of deluded remainers who can`t come to terms with loooooooooooooosing!!

[diku] 06/12/2018 14:30

What is the line up for today's Question Time on BBC...would prefer some heavy weight Politicians form all sides...

[stonedyou] 06/12/2018 14:24

I posted comeroooooooooon referendum speech yonks ago!










And his speech after he lost.....

[grahamite2] 06/12/2018 14:18

"No renegotiation. No second referendum. If you vote to leave WE WILL LEAVE."

[grahamite2] 06/12/2018 14:14

One for the liars who claim we didn't know perfectly well what we were voting for:



It comes right from the top, as you can see.

[minerve] 06/12/2018 13:20

Tariffs get all the attention, but do not forget the other two levers in the 301 investigation: export controls and investment restrictions. This summer, the Congress passed expansive legislation in both of these areas: the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA) and Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA , i.e. CFIUS 2.0). Per the ECRA, the Commerce Department last month began public comment (ends December 19) on “whether there are certain emerging technologies that are essential to the national security of the US”. The list of products that could be affected include basically all things tech/AI: genomics, computer vision and audio manipulation technology, microprocessor technology, quantum computing, mind-machine interfaces and flight control algorithms. This supports the narrative that export controls along with new FIRMMA rules on Direct Foreign Investment could be the lasting and significant legacy of Trump protectionism, e.g. could be hard to reverse even if there are "great" deals that resolve tariffs.

Interesting and a break from the Brexit nonsense.

[polar fox] 06/12/2018 13:19

Soames just told R4 that the vote should be held on Tuesday. He came close to saying, that if she loses by a hundred or so, she's probably toast, although he didn't put it that way, of course! He has no idea how it's all going to end.