Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[xxxxxy] 17/12/2018 20:35

A managed WTO Brexit
By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: DECEMBER 17, 2018
Jeremy Hunt has said on behalf of the government that we can handle a WTO exit next March. The whole government needs to spend the next three motnhs preparing well, sorting out the remaining issues quickly. It needs to provide an upbeat commentary about all the things it has done to ensure a smooth transition when we leave. The government assures us it has been preparing for 2.5 years so far, and must by now have done most of the work. We know that the ports will operate well and that the planes will fly.

Still the lies flow from those who want to reverse the decision of the referendum on the media. They are now arguing all over again that we will not be able to export food once we leave the EU. If the EU does impose high tariffs on UK food exports – one of the few areas they could do so as there are some high tariffs on non EU food at the moment – the UK will clearly switch some production from export to the EU to domestic consumption. Our own market would be better protected from EU imports by our also imposing similar tariffs. We should at the same time lower the average tariff we impose on food to encourage non EU countries to buy more of our food by encouraging mutual reduction of tariff barriers and to make imported food from the non EU which we cannot produce for ourselves cheaper. The scare stories usually fail to understand two crucial things. We will decide how high a tariff if any to place on imports. The EU cannot impose a higher tariff on our exports to them than it imposes on any other WTO country. The EU currently has low average tariffs of around 3%, with no tariffs at all on half the trade. The pound has fallen by more than 3% against the Euro so overall there is no loss of competitiveness if they do impose some tariffs.

The government is over reacting to stories of friction at our borders once we leave. It is busy encouraging stockpiles of medicines for no good reason. It has confirmed there are no continental companies cancelling contracts to supply after March 29. There are no UK plans to delay the drugs for longer at the ports. Were there to be any extra delays then the supplying companies would just have to send them a bit earlier, as they have to today if there are strikes or crashes affecting continental roads . There is plenty of container capacity should there be Ro Ro problems ,but Calais is busy fitting out its port to handle customs to ensure it keeps the business after we leave.

The so called non tariff barriers to trade include VAT, Excise and company tax. These frictions we already handle at our borders with the rest of the EU as we have different rates and incidence of these taxes. They include inspections of food and goods quality and safety. Most of these checks are done away from the border. The exporting company tests the product at the factory and supplies the test details on the electronic record of the consignment. The importing company may check again on delivery. Customs and national safety authorities can spot check consignments to ensure it is as recorded, usually on suspicion from investigation or tip off. None of this need cause new extra delays at ports. If we can handle the complexities of VAT and Excise today why is a tariff tax more difficult?

What is so depressing is how remorselessly negative the media and many of their chosen interviewees are. It as if we were never able today to import or export anything outside the EU, and as if governments were incapable of finding an easy way of lifting more money off companies in the form of extra customs dues if we leave and some tariffs are imposed. There are strict limits to how much power the EU has over trading companies, and there are international and EU Treaty obligations on the EU itself to promote and encourage a good trade with non EU neighbouring states. Some Remain supporters seem to think that the EU is evil in intent and will be a lawbreaker just to be difficult.

[cheshire pete] 17/12/2018 20:31

Petition hasn't been going long Tygarreg, has till 17th April next year as 6 month deadline, perhaps a bit early to draw conclusions.

[minerve] 17/12/2018 20:30

Two tribes:

[bargainbob] 17/12/2018 20:22

It a confidence booster for the nutters.They now think there not alone lol

[tygarreg] 17/12/2018 20:21

200k out of the original 17mill remainers want another go. That is just one in every 85 remainers wanting a rerun or one in every 175 original voters petitioning. That is of no statistical consequence whatsoever!

[bountyhunter] 17/12/2018 19:43

This should soon be the highest no. of votes ever for a parliamentary petition.

[cheshire pete] 17/12/2018 19:42

Problem is BB there are a lot of us.....17.4 million at the last count.

[bountyhunter] 17/12/2018 19:41

Yes 200k soon!

[cheshire pete] 17/12/2018 19:39

Some ideas for our clueless Govt.:
1. Put the £39 billion that we won't pay the EU for no deal to one side to support businesses and individuals who experience a down turn.
2. Provide short term interest free govt. backed loans to support business via the banks. They're quite happy paying out PPI so why not support business in temporary difficulty during no deal transition to WTO.
3. Call for a volunteer force to support a national effort. I for one would be quite happy to come out of retirement and work for nothing in a support role e.g. NHS volunteer.
4. Start a campaign to buy British and boycott goods from the EU.
5. Harness the Brexit supporting media to send out a clarion call for 'project hope' to counter the past 2 years of listening to the doom mongers of project fear.
None of this is rocket science and the remoaners on this board will doubtless tear it apart. It has taken less than 10 minutes and yes contributors more clever could add to or improve. Begs the question, why can't a Govt. Think Tank do the same and I conclude that they could but this Govt. doesn't really want us to leave the EU.

[cheshire pete] 17/12/2018 19:19

Petition nearing 200,000. No deal, bring it on.

[poikka] 17/12/2018 19:13

Monty - "Wishful thinking." re jacko 271.

I think not, considered thinking IMO.

[k38] 17/12/2018 18:41

I ordered a yellow jacket on line with 'Bretix means Bretix' at the back just in case...lol.

[maxk] 17/12/2018 18:21

May is working for the chimps in Brussels Min, not for us patriotic chimps.

[diku] 17/12/2018 18:18

Hoo,hoo,hoo,hoo,hoo,hoo,hoo,hoo,hee,hee,hee,hee,haaaaaa!....

[minerve] 17/12/2018 18:11

Oh dear, the chimp cage was on a ship and the ship is starting to sink.

Look at the cage, it is rattled. Bananas will not save you now and May is intent on full-steam ahead into the iceberg; the Chimp Titanic.

[diku] 17/12/2018 18:10

By having more debate & vote in the new year suggest May could be going back to Brussels in the new year for a rejigged deal...

[thomstar] 17/12/2018 17:38

What is she playing at...that sh1t ain't getting through not now not later...just tanking the market at every blundering move

[bbalanjones] 17/12/2018 17:32

k38: You could always sling your hat into the ring as potential Chair of the UK Escape Committee.

[ladeside] 17/12/2018 16:54

It's not the EU's fault that we have no industries and no UK owned companies.

We are the ones who sold out to the USA, China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia.

Take your pick !!!

[k38] 17/12/2018 16:48

I don't trust TM act on behalf of democracy and UKs interest. Wasting time MPs will left with two choices.. Stay in euroland with this deal or No Deal.Which choice you think the MPs will choose..Stay (forever) for sure.Lets face it, This is not a Bretix, this is UK in chains !!

[polar fox] 17/12/2018 16:45

51.90 is the lowest close since 4 August 2016. She is a disaster on two legs.

[montyhedge] 17/12/2018 16:39

Wishful thinking.

[jacko07] 17/12/2018 16:29

K38...agree, but I am willing to wager that if a 'NO DEAL' scenario is going to happen Barnier will capitulate.

The more I look at it, more reasons crop up that Europe cannot let it happen. I cannot see Barnier even imagining the ramifications of a no deal will be the end of him Juncker and Tusk.

Sure there will be problems for us, but we keep £39 billion plus that they desparately need.

May needs to accept that a 'no deal' may be an action she has to take. To adopt a very much stronger stance on the backstop, we have to be prepared to take Barnier to the end of the road.

I will bet that there will be a deal at the 24th hour and May will come out of it smelling of roses.

Otherwise, WTO and look to the future.