Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 09/6/2020 08:44

No divi this year...insiders have to trouser their pockets first...and issue more shares...wider shareholders bottom of the list...wider shareholders only first on the list when they do RI...

[mr.elbee] 09/6/2020 08:43

normal healthy pull back today

[buywell3] 09/6/2020 08:38

buywell target for LLOY now 17.5p

IMO dyor

[bargainbob] 09/6/2020 08:05

No divi this year , as I understand.

[xxxxxy] 09/6/2020 08:04

Are Central Banks independent? Central Banks, Covid 19 and the era of President Trump and the German Constitutional CourtBy JOHNREDWOOD | Published: JUNE 9, 2020Yesterday, I delivered a talk  about the independence of central banks. I am reproducing the slides from my lecture below:Four assertions to testCentral Banks are not independent, and never have been. They are the agents of the state or regional grouping they serveEuro area government bonds are not sovereign bonds as the governments which issue them cannot create money to repay themThe Karlsruhe judgement underlines the lack of a transfer union in the Euro area to ensure smooth running of the currency and banking systemNational Central Banks are now working closely with national governments to try to offset the huge economic damage done by the anti virus lock down and social distancing policiesIndependent?Central Banks are usually established by elected assemblies on the advice of governments. Their functions, objectives and constitutions can be changed any time the political sovereign wishesIn Europe the doctrine of CB independence was strongly promoted as part of the creation of the Euro. It derived from the German CB set up after the war to create a low inflation stable currency the DMThe UK also changed from a CB that worked with the Treasury to a narrow idea of independence based around the decisions on interest rates. The Labour government also gave the powers of the CB over the banking system away to a new RegulatorCollaborative?The Fed always had a twin objective of low inflation and decent growth or employment, and always accepted it had to be in sympathy with government policyThe Peoples Bank of China makes a virtue out of working within the economic policy framework set out by the President of ChinaHow independent was the Bundesbank?The German Central Bank enjoyed a long run making its own decisions about interest rates and general levels of money and credit. It was able to do so because it was successful in its remit and had no serious political opposition to what it was doingIt proved to be anything but independent when East and West Germany merged. The Bank's advice on delayed timing and on the rate of exchange for the merger of the Ostmark and DM was ignored. The political imperative of union took priorityThe final irony of the so called independent Bank was when the German government decided to abolish the successful DM currency that the Central Bank was there to uphold and supportThe Bundesbank accepted most of the important monetary powers it possessed being transferred to the ECBHow independent was the Bank of England, 1997-2019?The Bank had to accept the loss of powers, including the power to regulate the commercial banks, and the power to issue government debt, in the legislation passed to create so called independenceThe Bank then had to accept a change of inflation target when it suited the Labour government to flip to the softer target of CPI from RPIThe MPC agreed to an extraordinary meeting during the banking crash to lower rates as part of an international agreement brokered by the ChancellorThe Bank accepted joint control with the Treasury over Quantitative easingThe Bank then agreed to a change of powers from the Coalition government, who wished to give it back some powers over commercial banksThe battles between the Fed and the President 2016-20The Fed decided on a policy of raising interest rates which the President opposed in public. He favoured zero or negative rates like the EU with more QEIn 2019 the Fed had to admit they were wrong and changed course to rate cutting, given the sluggish performance of the economy compared to forecasts and aspirationsIn 2020 the Fed altered their opposition to near zero interest rates and proposed more QE as the virus effects gave them good reason to do soSovereign bonds are treated differently in markets, usually commanding lower rates and higher prices than corporate bonds, for two main reasons:The state that issues them can demand tax payments on threat of imprisonment to service and repay its debtsThe state can require the Central Bank to create extra domestic currency to repay the debts if necessary. German, Italian French and Spanish government bonds no longer enjoy this latter characteristic. The ECB and the EU authorities determine money creation in the EurozoneThe ECB offers mixed messages on Euro government bondsMrs Lagarde famously said the spreads or differential interest rates between say Italian and German state bonds was not a matter for the ECB to manageThe sharp adverse reaction by markets led to the ECB announcing Euro 750 bn  more QE, and spending some of it on trying to get the prices of Italian state debt upIn practice the ECB partially manages the spreads, but allows Italian, Greek, Spanish and other weaker country debts to offer higher yields than GermanIntervention has been controlled by the so called capital keyThe Karlsruhe judgement goes to the heart of whether the ECB should make it easier and cheaper for Italy and others to borrow, drawing on the strength of other member states finances:It says of QE "The more its total volume increases, the greater the risk that the Eurosystem becomes dependent on member states policies as it can no longer simply terminate and undo the programme without jeopardising the stability of the monetary union"The Judgement condemns QE saying the ECB "completely disregards the economic policy effects of the programme"The constitutional battle for control of the ECBThe German court asserts that the member states are "the masters of the Treaties" that embody the laws and constitution of the UnionIt dismisses the judgement of the ECJ, the EU's Supreme court, as "a view"It asserts that the ECJ's upholding of ECB monetary policy is "simply untenable"The Court however seems to give the final power to the German state which may well wish to confirm ECB power over QEA new era of collaboration between Central banks and governmentsThe advent of anti Covid policies closing down great swathes of the world economy and requiring new business models when lock down is relaxed has led to joint Bank and government actionIn the USA, the UK, Japan and elsewhere  the government encourages the Bank to lend and create money on a huge scale, and the Bank encourages the government to spend and borrow on a huge scaleBoth have done so with the approval of each otherIn the Euro area the Bank has expanded QE substantially, but the lack of a clear single sovereign for the EU has limited the fiscal response at EU level and caused more debates about pooling of risks and EU borrowing levelsMeanwhile member states have expanded their budget deficits greatly without EU demands to limit them to the 3% of the TreatiesThe futureHow will the new era of collaboration work out?Can the pretence of independence be re created and should it be?

[mitchy] 09/6/2020 07:39

If lloy were to announce a special dividend do they have to wait for the next scheduled trading update or can it be made any time?

[mitchy] 09/6/2020 07:33

I guess there'll be some profit taking today but who knows in this crazy world where the nasdaq is at an all time high !?

[minerve 2] 08/6/2020 23:24

I know why you wanna hate me
I know why you wanna hate me
I know why you wanna hate me
Cause hate is all the world has even seen lately
I know why you wanna hate me (Wanna hate me)
I know why you wanna hate me (Wanna hate me)
Now I know why you wanna hate me
Cause hate is all the world has even seen lately
And now you wanna hate me
Cause hate is all the world has even seen lately

[grahamite2] 08/6/2020 23:22

Newbank, it's not offensive, just silly. We kneel in church in contrition for our sins and in veneration of the almighty.

[gary1966] 08/6/2020 22:27

US markets extended gains after the close here and so unless something happens overnight in Asia I would expect a stronger opening tomorrow. Every time Lloyd’s fell below 37p today it bounced strongly and so momentum is definitely here and with financials in general. We have some catching up to do as the sector had missed out on a lot of the bounce back.

Bowl formed?

GLA

[chavitravi2] 08/6/2020 22:18

Hell of a lot more sell than buy today. I think it will open down in the morning looking at that. But who knows.

[filament] 08/6/2020 19:28

Given how much Barclays has risen we should be nearer 48p My concern is by Mid June the R number for Corona will increase given the reduction in social distancing If this does not happen we are more likely to reach 40 p plus

[maxk] 08/6/2020 19:15

Nigel Farage


There is palpable public anger at the symbols of our nationhood being desecrated. Political leadership is in short supply. Say no to anarchy on our streets.

[mikemichael2] 08/6/2020 19:03

We will have to have words with Min, and that 'slave' sheep rambo he has.........naughty boy.

[m4rtinu] 08/6/2020 18:56

Skinny - good article.

[maxidi] 08/6/2020 18:24

Utrickytrees and GeckotheGlorious.

Quite right on both counts....

[utrickytrees] 08/6/2020 18:22

The protesters are young ignorant & preaching to the converted. Their efforts might be better placed elsewhere.

[utrickytrees] 08/6/2020 17:52

Were the only one stupid enough to put up with it maxidi

[ball deap] 08/6/2020 17:22

How is Covid19 still taken seriously??? The protesters are still out !!!! Total bull, get out of gold, BTC ETH and the rest and get back into stocks.