Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 13:42

It is all about the price... JSE for a 26,000 to 30,000 boe/d H2 2024 production / current 20,000 boe/d is currently trading at an Enterprise Value of US$185 million...

At production top guidance and $80 Brent - PE Ratio is 2...

Bottom of the barrel valuation which doesn't make sense on a sum of the parts / breakup basis

Uber conservative broker Jefferies in their January 2024 AIM E&P update views accordingly ->

Jefferies cuts Jadestone Energy price target to 55 (60) pence - 'buy'
Jefferies cuts Serica Energy price target to 280 (330) pence - 'buy'

Enquest at 14p and Tullow at 27p for Jefferies...

At these low levels a bid / patient capital should step-in...

SteMiS17 Jan '24 - 12:56 - 20711 of 20714
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There small oilies out there with reliable production, good profitability, and high dividend yields, whose share prices are making little headway. Not sure why anyone thinks a potential loss making, non dividend paying, accident prone oily should do any better.

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 13:26

For sure Stemis. Is it worth a 25% fall on that RNS though? That's the simple way of looking at.

[t_headder] 17/1/2024 13:20

I think the company, in guidance, should have updated the revenue forecast and extended it out to 2026, then the market has better figures to go from and a proper cashflow analysis can be done. Also, they intend to keep being acquisative, but buying into already producing assets via debt etc. and not having a discernable hurdle rate for return on invested capital is also something they should be shouting about. Remember, price is truth and if you have to spend hours going through past accounts and can only 'best guess' profitability as the company don't split areas of the business in accounts properly then the outcome is to sell up it looks

[11_percent] 17/1/2024 13:13

SteMIS.....you nailed it.

[stemis] 17/1/2024 12:56

There's small oilies out there with reliable production, good profitability, and high dividend yields, whose share prices are making little headway. Not sure why anyone thinks a potential loss making, non dividend paying, accident prone oily should do any better...

[taurusthebear] 17/1/2024 12:52

No. The market likes stability, not the sort of stuff that JSE has been putting out for the past year.

[neo26] 17/1/2024 12:35

Is this being oversold?

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 11:08

Webinar documents guides Stag at 2,000 - 3,000 boe/d Page 4 of below presentation

Page 5 of the same presentation mentions 5 workovers planned for Stag (to maintain
/enhance production)

I have included guidance were specified in the presentation and were not specified have used last reported quarterly production. This is conservative as for example Montara is currently producing 7,000 boe/d and per CEO PB CWLH is currently producing 30,000 boe/d for full 100% share of which JSE has 33.33%



pughman17 Jan '24 - 11:03 - 20706 of 20707
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From Monday's RNS and call, Stag is currently producing at circa 2,200boe/d. Barely 12 months since the $60m infills, Stag needs $100 oil+ premium, otherwise it's standing still at best.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 11:05

2024 Gross Profit Estimate at $75 Brent and Production Mid-Guidance

Revenue $583 million
- Opex $270 million
- Carbon Tax/Royalties $30 million
- Capex $90 million
- Admin Costs $35 million
- Other Costs $20 million
- Finance costs $20 million
- CWLH Decommissioning One Time Payment as term of 2nd CWLH acquisition $77 million
- Tax $40 million
= Profit US 1 million

Top range of guidance and $80 Brent will approximately add US$90 million to the bottom line!!!

I expect JSE to handily beat the low ball top range of guidance as they did for revised 2023 production guidance!!!

Every $1 increase in Brent above $75 adjusting for hedged barrels and fixed price gas will result in additional $4,148,590 revenue / gross profit addition if Brent averages above $75

[pughman] 17/1/2024 11:03

From Monday's RNS and call, Stag is currently producing at circa 2,200boe/d. Barely 12 months since the $60m infills, Stag needs $100 oil+ premium, otherwise it's standing still at best.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 10:42

From JSE HY 2023 Results ->

As required by the RBL facility, at 30 June 2023, the Group had entered into oil price swap contracts for 4.2 mmbbls, representing approximately 78% of the required hedging volumes, at a weighted average price of US$70.29/bbl. The hedging programme was subsequently completed in July 2023, with 5.5 mmbbls hedged over the Q4 2023 to Q3 2025 period at an overall weighted average price of US$70.57/bbl;

THE ABOVE TWO YEAR PERIOD HAS 5.5 million barrels hedge at $70.59 per Barrel
Or Daily Hedged Production Volume 7,534 at $70.59

Annual loss if Brent at $75 = 7,534 Boe/d * ($75 - $70.59) = $12,127,500

Therefore estimated revenue for Jadestone at $75 assuming premiums still apply adjusting for 7,534 boe/d crude hedged at $70.59 = $595,267,550 Minus $12,127,500 = $583,140,050

$583,140,050 estimated revenue assuming Thailand gas same rate as Akatara, Brent premiums apply and conservative as to Akatara revenue given no inclusion of higher priced LPG and Condensate production!!!

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 10:34

Jadestone Energy 2024 Revenue Forecast $75 Brent

MONTARA (H1 23 Premium to Brent $1.5) 5,500 Boe/d * $76.50 = $153,573,750

STAG (H1 23 Premium to Brent $16) 2,500 Boe/d * $91.50 = $83,493,750

CWLH (Brent? No mention of adj in H1 23 Results) 4,400 Boe/d * $75.00 = $120,450,000

PENMAL (H1 23 Premium to Brent $3.5) 6,500 Boe/d * $78.50 = $186,241,250

SINPHUHORM (Reported as Dividend for JSE Share) 1,500 Boe/d * ??? using same Boe rate as Akatara US31.36 per Boe = $17,169,600

AKATARA (6,000 Boe/d Gas From H2 2024) 3,000 * US$31.36 per Boe (US$5.6/MMBtu) = $34,339,200
(Akatara conservative estimate as all gas no LPG or Condensates)
(1 bbl oil = 140*0.04 mmbtu = 5.6 mmbtu natural gas)

Total Revenue Forecast at $75 per boe $595,267,550|

Adjust for hedged amounts assuming no changes to premiums below!!!

[sea7] 17/1/2024 09:20

see someone is at those 50k block buys again

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 09:18

By the way that's not my personal reflection on senior management who (Excepting the Montara issues) have performed well at times but overall reasonable.

Just a reflection of the large (and growing!) gap between fair intrinsic value and market cap.

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 09:01

Certainly there's a growing likelihood of Tyrus moving senior management on and taking it private I would think.

[ashkv] 17/1/2024 08:48

Unreal share price - fingers crossed for a bid to come. Even 55-60p will do....

JSE Share Price: 27.00p
Brent: $77.00
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 28.57%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -71.03%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2650
Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance (20,000-23,000 Boe/d): 21,500
Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): 20,000
Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): 13,800
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 Dec 2023: $157,000,000
Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2023: $152,000,000
Net Debt (USD) 31 Dec 2023 : -$5,000,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $78,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £145,987,115
Market Cap (USD): $184,673,700
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $189,673,700
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,500 Boe/d $8,822
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): $9,484
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): $13,744
JSE Decommissioning Expense Liability i.e. Asset Restoration Liability per HY 2023 Results: $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 23,000 Boe/d Production [Added Decommissioning Expense Per HY 2023 Results to Enterprise Value]: $33,232
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE YEAR END 2024 26,000 Boe/d Production [Added Decommissioning Expense Per HY 2023 Results to Enterprise Value]: $29,397
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $2.93
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 16 Jan 2024: 71.50p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 164.81%

[winnet] 17/1/2024 08:40

The days of 100p seem a long time ago now...

[sea7] 17/1/2024 08:35

baby out with the bathwater as usual Nigel

[winnet] 17/1/2024 08:35

Dunno I agree with you Nigel, I'm not laughing...

[nigelpm] 17/1/2024 08:28

It makes no sense. UK inflation has absolutely no bearing on JSE - funny to watch but stupid.

[banksy] 17/1/2024 08:23

Heading for previous lows. Surreal

[t_headder] 16/1/2024 21:49

Ahh, missed the abandonment payment & didn't fancy criss-crossing reports for g&a, tax durastictions etc. So, carbon taxes were assessed, it seems earnings should be negative to the tune of maybe 20M$, plus taxes.I think they should insure & have a fire or something at stag but hey ho.https://www.jadestone-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230919-JSE-H1-2023-results-presentation-vF.pdf---on page 9 here cash YE 2023 is supposed to be -100m$, that's in contradiction to their recent update but I expect it's because of deferred payments or something. Still expecting net cash position around £80m for YE 2025 if they don't spend it in advance. I'd like to know their projected roce %age calculations per year on their purchases but will probably save that for the weekend.

[bradvert] 16/1/2024 20:57

If you include the $77m abandonment payment and $30m carbon taxes mentioned in the guidance then you're down to zero.Take into account the $40m+ G&A not mentioned in the guidance and you're negative.That's what's not to like..