Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 11/1/2024 10:29

JSE at 35p and current 20,000 boe/d going to 30,000 boe/d has an absurdly low Market Cap of GBP 195 million vs 430 million for PTAL -> though PTAL has USD 90 million net cash.

s34icknote10 Jan '24 - 18:50 - 20576 of 20580
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20000 per day
430 m market cap !

[mr roper] 11/1/2024 08:44

Just a healthy little bounce of the 50 and 200. Let the steady climb up resume

[s34icknote] 11/1/2024 08:37

May be tipped some where ?

[croasdalelfc] 11/1/2024 07:25

Operational update likely next week imo.Then guidance for 2024 mid Feb

[nigelpm] 10/1/2024 18:51

Huge country risk. Couldn't sleep at night in that one.

[s34icknote] 10/1/2024 18:50

20000 per day 430 m market cap !

[fardels bear] 10/1/2024 17:01

More country risk though, don't you think?

[pughman] 10/1/2024 13:04

Another positive RNS from Ptal. How I pine for JSE having a CEO of that calibre.

[ashkv] 10/1/2024 12:57

OPEC needs to pull its act together and the US producers also need to do their part.

Per the below link/analysis inflation adjusted Brent crude price in current nominal dollars for the past 20 year period is USD 97!!!

Hopefully we see such levels soon!!!

[ashkv] 10/1/2024 12:05

Look it up if you can read financial statements - all very managed for and in most of the bolt on acquisitions of the past few years the decom cash is paid into segregated accounts as part of the deal.

Montara etc have a long way to go prior to decom along with most of the other assets so much ado about nothing. Even the penmal assets are being lined up for a resumption!!!
 
1AJM10 Jan '24 - 12:01 - 20571 of 20571
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Was a bit troll of me to add that on the end for no reason, a non-trolly question now though.

Are the decommissioning liabilities included in the OPEX/CAPEX?

[1ajm] 10/1/2024 12:01

Was a bit troll of me to add that on the end for no reason, a non-trolly question now though.

I'm guessing when JSE say 'Unit operating costs for the Seller's interest are estimated at $25/bbl

They are not including the $111m abandonment liabilities? A cost that is necessary to be allowed to operate the field.

[ashkv] 10/1/2024 09:48

Mark Wilson at Jefferies - per my understanding the most negative analyst on UK E&P firms. On the HBR's Wintershall DEA acquisition call - he almost seemed upset about the deal and the 360p per share valuation for HBR that was attributed per deal terms gives Jadestone Energy a 55p target price (downgraded from 60p).

This 55p target is by the far the lowest 12 month target price for JSE as some analysts have JSE at 90p 12m target price. And to put Mark Wilson's ultra bearish target prices in context - he has Enquest 12m TP at 14p and Tullow Energy at 27p (nearly 20% below current trading levels)!!!

The ultra bearish analyst has JSE at 55p - what does that convey!!!!

"Jefferies cuts Jadestone Energy price target to 55 (60) pence - 'buy'"

Marketscreener using GBPUSD at 1.27p has an average 12m target price for JSE at 74.89p!!!!



Jefferies cuts Ithaca Energy price target to 175 (200) pence - 'buy'

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Jefferies cuts Tullow Oil to 'underperform' (hold) - price target 27 (35) pence

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Jefferies raises Harbour Energy price target to 360 (340) pence - 'buy'

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Jefferies cuts Pharos Energy to 'hold' (buy) - price target 24 (30) pence

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Jefferies cuts Capricorn Energy to 'hold' (buy) - price target 160 (225) pence

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Jefferies cuts Genel Energy price target to 85 (95) pence - 'hold'

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Jefferies cuts Jadestone Energy price target to 55 (60) pence - 'buy'

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Jefferies cuts Serica Energy price target to 280 (330) pence - 'buy'

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Jefferies cuts Enquest Energy to 'hold' (buy) - price target 14 (20) pence

[ashkv] 10/1/2024 09:37

Hear we go with the subtle deramping again - emphasizing the very manageable long dated decommissioning costs that are already largely provisioned for!!!

Also last reported decommissioning costs were USD $493,985,000 - the new acquisition will have decommissioning costs paid for by end 2024 as part of the deal (if I recall) .

More proof of the devous troll 1AJM

1AJM10 Jan '24 - 00:03 - 20567 of 20568
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Tragic share price...

Oil price needs something good to happen. OPEC really do like low oil prices.

$1.3m a day revenue currently? 3-months of good production before year end. At some point it's going to start getting silly still sub 40p, Nearly as silly as having $600m in decommissioning expenses

hahaha - just saw this observation from FB and he was on point as I had already shot off a reply!!!

Fardels Bear10 Jan '24 - 07:57 - 20568 of 20570
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You'll have ash on your back with posts like that. Your last comment is likely to make me join him.

[fardels bear] 10/1/2024 07:57

You'll have ash on your back with posts like that. Your last comment is likely to make me join him.

[1ajm] 10/1/2024 00:03

Tragic share price...

Oil price needs something good to happen. OPEC really do like low oil prices.

$1.3m a day revenue currently? 3-months of good production before year end. At some point it's going to start getting silly still sub 40p, Nearly as silly as having $600m in decommissioning expenses.

[nigelpm] 09/1/2024 20:07

I'd expect an operational update in next week or two in line with 2023.

[pughman] 09/1/2024 13:13

5 weeks since the last update is too long, the PM infills were good news, why be so coy about it.

[mr roper] 09/1/2024 12:25

Volume still pretty thin.
Looks to be retesting the 50sma, possibly a dip.to the 200 before resuming the upward trend. Update due in 2nd half of Jan?

[ashkv] 09/1/2024 12:15

Excellent unbiased and comprehensive individual investor analysis on Jadestone Energy.

Eagerly awaiting the second part of the same.

MT hope the new year is treating you well and you are responding to treatments.

Do you think it would be of value to include the below to the header of your Jadestone Energy ADVFN page? Cheers [Perhaps O&G Tourist can modify the title of his JSE research :) "An APAC O&G Company that is rebuilding post a period of missteps" :) ]



Why do my JSE posts get downvoted and out of view of those who are not logged into ADVFN?

[ashkv] 09/1/2024 11:44

Indeed but JSE will come good - I am tempted to add more given today's price of sub 34p

For 20,000 boe/d of current (mainly crude) production forecast to grow to 30,000 boe/d (crude plus gas) later in 2024 Enterprise Value [EV = (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD) = $223,217,196] / JSE's valuation is unreasonably low at present!!!

JSE Share Price: 33.64p
Brent: $77.75
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 60.19%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -63.91%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2700
4 Dec 23 RNS Revised Upward Range Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production Mid-Guidance (14,500 - 15,000 boe/d from APR 23 to DEC 23 ): 14,750
Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23: 13,500
Current Production -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): 20,000
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 30 June 23: $111,000,000
Cash (USD) 30 June 2023: $118,782,000
Net Cash (USD) 30 June 2023 : $7,782,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $124,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £181,889,131
Market Cap (USD): $230,999,196
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $223,217,196
EV/Barrel(USD) Revised Upward per 4 Dec 23 RNS Mid-Guidance for Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production: $15,133
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23 (Montara Offline Q1 2023): $16,535
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): $11,161
EV/Barrel(USD) 2022 Actual Average Production: $19,432
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Forecast Production Mid Guidance (24,000 Boe/d): $9,301
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) Current Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf: $39,894
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $3.44
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 123.69%

[basem1] 09/1/2024 10:45

Oil stocks are poison at present it seems

[sea7] 08/1/2024 14:40

superb assessment OG Tourist - thanks

[ashkv] 08/1/2024 14:03

Thank you O&G Tourist - wonderful work on JSE and the other firms.

I like how you are candid with your views and mentioned in the I3E Energy write-up that AIM is the worst of the worst exchanges... not considered by institutional investors!

It would appear this mantra also applies to some level for the FTSE/Main Board relative to other European/US exchanges!!!!

Hopefully the UK Government, LSE etc - get their act on the road in 2024!!!

[fardels bear] 08/1/2024 10:13

I think that the commonly referred to mistakes can only be called such in hindsight. Imprudence might be a more apt description and then again with different outcomes where does the balance tip and they become accused of being overcautious?

[donald pond] 08/1/2024 09:44

It is a good read and very balanced. The company has had bad luck with Maari but the FSOP disaster and carrying on buybacks long after they should have stopped were basic errors imo. Easy to be captain hindsight I know