Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 08/1/2024 09:25

Thanks fp. Still reading it.

[fireplace22] 08/1/2024 07:51

Here it is:

[fardels bear] 08/1/2024 07:49

I couldn't even find it.

[ogtourist] 07/1/2024 16:12

Thanks for the kind words, MT. I was a bit scared of the length and overloading of information, so I decided dividing it in two. I'd appreciate if you could share it.

[mount teide] 07/1/2024 14:05

OGtourist - Your substack article is easily the most balanced, elegant and persuasive research(the technical detail/accuracy is an exceptional piece of work!) I've read about the investment case of Jadestone Energy for many years. Makes most of the covering broker/analysts offerings appear embarrassingly shallow/very modestly researched. Many thanks.

Looking forward with great interest and anticipation to your second post next week.

[paduardo] 07/1/2024 13:10

Good article, look forward to the follow up thanks OGtourist

[ogtourist] 07/1/2024 10:35

We have written about Jadestone Energy in our substack. In this first post we discuss the origin of the company, Paul Blakeley's role, major shareholders and existing assets. We will publish next week a second post with more details on the financial situation and the valuation versus peers:
hxxps://open.substack.com/pub/zerogcos/p/a-troubled-apac-oil-and-gas-company?r=70r5i&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcome=true

[sleveen] 06/1/2024 08:57

Classic next leg up.

[lord gnome] 05/1/2024 01:15

Classic what?

[1ajm] 04/1/2024 16:53

Share price dropping is a classic.

[croasdalelfc] 04/1/2024 07:26

I would say 90% oil - 10% gas at 20kboepd.

[ashkv] 03/1/2024 10:14

20,000 boe/d - is nearly 100% oil at present!!!

Akatara gas 6-10,000 boe/d fixed price gas at a premium price to be operational late Q2 2024 per current guidance!!! For total production of 26-30,000 boe/d

Bitcoin is pure speculation - tomorrow it could drop 50%....

Add JSE while it is cheap :) This will come good - patience!!!

Opec has recently announced a monitoring meeting for early Feb 2024. IMHO oi price presently appears to be manipulated down by a dubious narrative derived via questionable IEA estimates, EIA reports of fictitious strong USA production and the USA controlling financial levers etc... I have seen in the last week of December 2023 - a well regarded academic on Bloomberg TV being cut off mid speech by the newscaster to change the topic when this academic was communicating oil is at or below long term averages once adjusted for inflation. It is not in the interest of the Western establishment given the Russian war, inflation from money printing etc for oil to be at fair levels...

I wouldn't bet against Opec + - it is the Federal Reserve of the oil markets... Physical markets will tighten.... and oil will zoom. Presently below long term average for oil once adjusted for inflation.

Also USA speculative positioning on crude close to all time lows...

In this situation it makes sense to not be overly long or short - market could do down, but it will be like a recoiled spring as if the market goes any further down US production will adjust.... WTI is getting to marginal barrel levels at present...

[1ajm] 02/1/2024 18:06

Cheers Tag,

Not sure what the split is for JSE 20,000boe/d. Straight oil vs gas split. When I did the h1 revenue the other day no one corrected me, surprisingly, as I just did 20,000 as bopd in the calculation.

and the 6,000 akatara gas is 5-6,000boe/d?

[tag57] 02/1/2024 17:28

1AJM, you can no doubt get a much more detailed answer but boed is barrel of oil equivalent per day, ie volume not revenue.

[1ajm] 02/1/2024 14:25

Can someone confirm to me when JSE say 20,000boe/d they mean close to 20,000 x the price of oil revenue?

how much of that 20,000 on conversion of barrels of energy, aka 1 unit doesn't = $75 (POO)

[1ajm] 02/1/2024 14:14

Another day of Bitcoin doing better than oil, what a time to be alive.

[s34icknote] 02/1/2024 10:40

18 Jan up date last year

[1ajm] 01/1/2024 17:56

Looking forward to it starting to look like a finished facility. Shouldn't be too long now. 1-2 updates?


Oil not doing great, see how tomorrow goes.

[mount teide] 01/1/2024 09:53

November 2023 - Lemang/Akatara Gas Processing Plant Progress Video now up on website

[1ajm] 30/12/2023 20:09

Agreed Ash,



If a smooth 6-months for H1 2024 with stable oil prices doesn't cause serious share price movement then it's going to be alarming and I'm going to need to consider what i'm missing from the wider market rather than JSE. By that point lack of recovery would be outside of even my expectations, which seem to be lower than many on here. JSE will be 10-months past the end of operational problems at that point.


JSE would be reporting as you say, a $250-300m H1 revenue (without any kind of oil price positive movement and ok hedging downside protection at these prices) on a fairly low OPEX, Akatara online, 20,000bopd average and 25,000bopd current and they should have enough cash to be talking about the path to 30,000bopd.

Does anyone have up to date figures on their current OPEX for the 20,000bopd? I've not kept track of it. I'm assuming comfortably under $35. Akatara bumped up the CAPEX massively at a really bad time, as we all know, but most of the upfront costs for that should be coming to an end soon.

Where do you guys see JSE over the next couple of years? 40,000-50,000bopd? No Debt? Higher production with debt?

IMO/DYOR no-one has a crystal ball.

[ashkv] 30/12/2023 17:01

Fair enough 1ajm - with production at 20k boed and $80 brent plus accounting for hedging of 50% (15k boe/d production) at $70 plus premium to Brent for unhedged barrels --> I am closer to a revenue figure of USD 300mn (Fingers and toes crossed).

At a share price of 36.5p - JSE's Enterprise Value of USD 248 million is not even half 2024 projected revenue at 20k boe/d if all goes smoothly...and also not accounting for incremental revenue from Akatara.

JSE remains great value at 36.5p - given it was trading at around 35p prior to the recent update re infill drilling success and 20k boe/d production for the few weeks prior to the RNS.

Was hoping for a repeat at JSE of the random jump ups from similar undervalued but less liquid shares such at Petra Diamond, Parkmead etc -that went up 40-50% over the past couple of weeks for no good reason.

Hopefully JSE gives us such positive movements early in the new year :)

[1ajm] 29/12/2023 19:09

Calm down ash. You bombard anyone who wants to have any sort of discussion that doesn't include the words 'boom to 100p' or 'takeover incoming' with spam copy/paste posts. We all want the same thing here,




Hopefully a trading update some time in Jan/feb with unaudited 2023FY financials and how 2023 ended, update of 2024 so far, Akatara nearing construction completion and ready for testing etc.

JSE selling 1.7m barrels at year end will soften the montara mishaps a bit at least.

Anyone who said my 40p year end forecast was a troll low ball valuation, 36.5p was the correct year end forecast. I aimed a bit high.

H1 2024 6-months of 20,000bopd into akatara opening smoothly is the main target for me ($250m+ revenue). A lot to look forward too. Need to get above the 200MA and then the warrants price Q1 2024 hopefully. All things running smoothly end of H1 and H2 2024 is realistically when JSE could have momentum.

Keeping in mind JSE are still growing and won't be looking to prioritise clearing debt and build a large cash build over making new acquisition.

Please a smooth 6-months, no more NOPSEMA directives. Lose revenue for maintenance holding the cards.

IMO/DYOR

[ashkv] 28/12/2023 10:50

Hope all had a joyous Christmas and 2024 is shaping up (god wiling to be a year that JSE goes back above 100p!!!)

Akatara completion update
Infill Drilling Update
Further Acquisitions
Montara remediation update

Just a few items to look forward to into 2024 and the biggie - First gas from Akatara in Q2 2024... Current production is imho discounted 60-70% from market value... and hopefully Aktara progress boosts SP!!!

[ashkv] 28/12/2023 09:36

20,000 boe/d of crude sold a premium to Brent which is produced in OECD low tax jurisdictions with an Enterprise Value (EV = Market Cap + Debt - Cash) of USD 248 million.

Per management value of firm if they were to sell would be at present prior to Akatara restart in the 90-100p range...

BBG Analyst average 12m target price is 75p with a high target of 90p!!!

As of last update -> Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $124,000,000

JSE Share Price: 37.00p
Brent: $79.20
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 76.19%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -60.30%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2800
4 Dec 23 RNS Revised Upward Range Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production Mid-Guidance (14,500 - 15,000 boe/d from APR 23 to DEC 23 ): 14,750
Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23: 13,500
Current Production -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): 20,000
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 30 June 23: $111,000,000
Cash (USD) 30 June 2023: $118,782,000
Net Cash (USD) 30 June 2023 : $7,782,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $124,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £200,056,416
Market Cap (USD): $256,072,213
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $248,290,213
EV/Barrel(USD) Revised Upward per 4 Dec 23 RNS Mid-Guidance for Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production: $16,833
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23 (Montara Offline Q1 2023): $18,392
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): $12,415
EV/Barrel(USD) 2022 Actual Average Production: $21,615
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Forecast Production Mid Guidance (24,000 Boe/d): $10,345
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) Top Guidance + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf: $41,147
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $3.83
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 103.38%