Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 14:09

It happens - the Hotel Chocolat takeover at a 100% premium to then price is a good recent example on the LSE from late 2023!!!

JSE did mess up with Montara and now additional costs to ensure reliable production... however, the share price more than compensates for the same!!!

spawny10015 Jan '24 - 14:02 - 20630 of 20632
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Shares are rarely insanely cheap for no reason ash.

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 14:08

Per 2022 Full Year Results

Operating costs per barrel of oil equivalent (US$/boe) US$37.49

And for 2024 - US$33.5 /boe - crazy the share price drop!!! Basically higher costs is insurance on further Montara / Stag issues. And welcome given preferred as compared to FPSO halts for remediation!!!

Opex costs for Stag and Montara are guided to be US$60 per barrel for 2024 - but given Stag oil sells for a huge premium to Brent ($22 premium to Brent in 2022) it is still profitable production. Also if I recall Montara oil also has a small premium to Brent?


The midpoints of the total operating cost and production guidance ranges imply a group opex/bbl of c.US$33.5/boe for 2024, which is a c.30% reduction on expected 2023 levels due to higher production and also lower unit cost assets which have been added to the portfolio, such as Akatara, Malaysia and CWLH, all having a positive impact on Group metrics.

[spawny100] 15/1/2024 14:02

Shares are rarely insanely cheap for no reason ash....

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 13:45

JSE is an insanely cheap share - surely an offer will be incoming at these low ball levels at a premium of 100% or more of today's price levels!!!

JSE Share Price: 30.00p
Brent: $78.25
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 42.86%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -67.81%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2750
Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance (20,000-23,000 Boe/d): 21,500
Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): 13,800
Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): 20,000
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 Dec 2023: $157,000,000
Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2023: $152,000,000
Net Debt (USD) 31 Dec 2023 : -$5,000,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $78,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £162,207,905
Market Cap (USD): $206,815,079
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $211,815,079
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,500 Boe/d $9,852
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): $15,349
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): $10,591
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 Top-Guidance Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf Acquisition: $34,194
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $3.27
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 150.83%

[e43] 15/1/2024 13:44

Yes in theory net cash could be greater than Mkt cap by middle of next year,but an unloved share in an out of saver sector, is going to have to put in the hard yards first (but still a little surprised by this AM's price movement)

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 13:41

Rather than going by 1AJM's negatively slanted take please review the below presentation for today's (15 Jan 2024) 2024 JSE Guidance Presentation / Webinar!!!



2024 Production Guidance -> 20,000 – 23,000 boe/d
2024 Operating costs -> US$240 – 290mm [Broadly flat on a comparable basis with 2023, with the year-on-year increase due to the addition of Akatara and CWLH 2]
2024 Capex -> US$80 – 110mm

Therefore back of the envelope calculation using mid-guidance figures and $75 low case figure I am estimating gross profit ->

Production 21,500 boe/d (Very conservative and likely above 23,000 boe/d)
Brent $75
Gross Revenue = 21,500 * US$75 * 365 = US$588.56 Million
Minus Operating Costs US$265 Million
Minus Capex US$95 Million
Gross Profit = 588.56-265-95
Gross Profit = US$ 228.5 Million

Am I way off?

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 13:29

At 32p share price Enterprise Value per 2p reserves is only $8.87 INCLUDING DECOMMISSIONING COSTS.

ALSO ACQUISITIONS IN 2023 plus accretive reserves etc from Penmal drilling will result in a net addition to 2p reserves post 2023 production!!!

SERICA PAID $18 per 2p for Tailwind!!! In high tax / high cost UK!!!

Value disconnect for JSE is HUGE!!!

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 13:22

Does the below include Akatara as I understand it - as gas is not lifted :)

nigelpm15 Jan '24 - 13:05 - 20623 of 20624
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Nice close to the call. 7.5m barrels to be lifted in 2024.

At $70 - that's $525m of revenue in 2024 against market cap of c.$210m

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 13:21

1AJM draw on RBL is much less than I expected given Akatara nearing start and huge capex involving the same combined with JSE's stop start 2023 production.

RBL at USD 152 million drawn year end 2023 as it USD 118 million drawn on 30 June 2023 - consequently JSE are only in net debt of USD 5 million given cash on hand.

Also JSE have the standby facility of USD 30 million as a back-up which with cash on hand excluding RBL provides some liquidity. As I would expect that the RBL will not need to be paid instantly in the worst worst case scenario!!!

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 13:05

Nice close to the call. 7.5m barrels to be lifted in 2024.

At $70 - that's $525m of revenue in 2024 against market cap of c.$210m

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 13:01

What is the below supposed to convey??

From 1AJM
That's 8,500-9,500bbl/s in those two assets, This plan is far greater than a plan that involves NOPSEMA directives.

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 12:59

From 1AJM

In 2022 Stag averaged a premium of $22 to Brent not a small premium of "$5" Doesn't such subterfuge discount credibility on all else!!!

Assuming $20 premium for 2023 therefore $75 + $20 at 3,000 Boe/d average production = USD 104 million guidance for 2024 at $75 Brent!!!

1AJM15 Jan '24 - 11:59 - 20618 of 20620
Stag -
Stag, 3,500bbls/d @ $80 (small premium) is $102mn revenue with $60-70mn a year operating costs. Are there CAPEX costs to go on top of this?

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 12:53

20-23,000 Production Guidance Broken Down Per 15 Jan 24 JSE Presentation Plus Call

Montara (JSE 100%) Per presentation 2024 Guidance 5,000-6,000 Boe/d Crude taking into account downtime and natural declines per call. Current production is 7,000 boe/d per today's call.

Akatara (JSE 100%) Guidance gas production ???

CWLH (JSE 33.33% post completion Q1 24)-> ??Guidance?? CWLH Production averaged 30,000 Boe/d Crude in Q4 2023 per call(5m:30s to 5m:50s) ?? JSE 33.33% = 10,000 Boe/d??
[Appreciate some CWLH production is Gas given to Woodside for free. However, per Another Oil and Gas report on JSE - Okha platform share of production to Woodside from CWLH (50% Woodside) comprising Australian Oil was 13k Boe/d in Sep 2023?]

Penmal (JSE 100%)-> Current 7,000 Boe/d Crude Net to JSE)

Stag (JSE 100%) -> 2,000 - 3,000 Boe/d Crude sold at a premium of $22 relative to Brent price in 2022.

Sinphuhorm (9.52%) -> 1,500 Boe/d Dry gas Guidance per 15 Jan 2024 Call

[kaos3] 15/1/2024 12:37

1AJM - great job. thank you

i have 2 Qs.

can Montara FPSO be reused elsewhere when Montara is depleted. we are investing quite some money into it

RBL - can currenies have impact on what asset is given as assurance. like getting paid in the same currency as the capital outlay ...matching both ... Atakara being the case. less risk, cheaper ... eg more appropriate

[1ajm] 15/1/2024 11:59

Best case scenario 2024 outlook...I know my haters on this thread are going to go into bombardment reply mode but please try give a reasonable response, even thought it will inevitably be disagreement.

JSE getting 2023 year end net debt as low as $5mn is good. Nicely timed liftings but interesting mentioning 'optimisation of working capital' does this just mean they delayed costs into 2024?

20,000-23,000boe/d 2024 outlook is very disappointing. Akatara gas seems to be replacing more decline in current oil production than I expected.

Operating costs -
$300mn essentially, it sounds painfully high.

Capital expenditure -
$80-110mn + $77m in CWLH abandonment funds

Revenue -
$550mn @ $75 oil?


Montara -
Montara production averages approximately 5,000-6,000 bbls/d during 2024...$120mn operating costs in 2024, $95mn per year outlook, $150mn revenue @ $75 oil with $120mn costs. I think this year Montara just running smoothly is the target.

Stag -
Stag, 3,500bbls/d @ $80 (small premium) is $102mn revenue with $60-70mn a year operating costs. Are there CAPEX costs to go on top of this?

That's 8,500-9,500bbl/s in those two assets, This plan is far greater than a plan that involves NOPSEMA directives.


PM323 -
I could do with some clarification to why they are saying gross rates of 7,000bbl/d from the drilling campaign. I believe before it was gross rate of 7,500 for the first three wells and 3,500 for the fourth well = 11,000bbl/d gross with JSE getting net 7,000bbls/d

CWLH -
Not sure I'll ever agree on the timing of this acquisition. Or talk of using RBL to cover some of the abandonment fund.

RBL -
No surprise they are going to change it in march, trying to include CWLH and Akatara as assets to negate the poor outlook/lower values on Montara and stag. Maybe this avoids a lower borrowing capacity. They do as of right now at least have cash to cover changes in March. I didn't realise they had drawn so much of it.

Akatara -
Akatara is really going to need to perform on its higher margin Gas this year. It has a lot of carrying JSE to do in H2. The 'royalties' that kick in after a few years are large.

$33.5bbl OPEX costs sounds way better than it feels.


JSE please do not use your cash before March and certainly don't sink it into an abandonment fund for 15 years away.

Personally I had a better outlook on JSE before this update. But this is JSE business model so maybe I should have expected this, they really need oil to be higher.

I'm not expecting much profit from JSE in 2024 and hope they can make a good acquisition in H2 that maybe isn't as old or maybe gas.

To end on a positive note, This does look a whole look better than how 2023 turned out.

[sga64] 15/1/2024 11:38

Spot on, not PBs fault this trades for 30p. Has his bonus been approved?

[croasdalelfc] 15/1/2024 11:14

From webcast:7000 bopd from Montara atm.CLWH 2 acquisition due to close very soon - one approval arrived today. The reduced expenditure for decomm will be the final payment end 2024 rather than one of first two which are covered by oil sales .Next acquisition likely to be gas imo - probably another chunk of Sing with its fixed GSA and cash flow - acquisition cost covered by backdating and increased RBL on completion

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 10:00

I think folk are a touch hard on Blakeley - some of the acquisitions and development over the past few years is intrinsically linked to his relationships and work - the business does now need to deliver on this and the share price will follow.

[winnet] 15/1/2024 09:57

Spending a few million decommissioning Blakeley would be money well spent.

---

lol

[pughman] 15/1/2024 09:48

Spending a few million decommissioning Blakeley would be money well spent.

[xxnjr] 15/1/2024 09:42

Blakeley does tend to waffle on.....
maybe we could do with someone a bit more dynamic?

[s34icknote] 15/1/2024 09:24

May be a serica takeover target at 64p ? Judging by the over reaction on the market .The share price will stagnate and this will be taken out !

[ashkv] 15/1/2024 09:14

Nonetheless overall opex per Barrel guided to be well down with production increase from low Opex CWLH and Akatara fields!!!

How undervalued is JSE!!!

INSANE!!!

$222,155,833 ENTERPRISE VALUE (EV=MARKET CAP + DEBT - CASH) FOR 23,000 Boe/d of production!!!

pughman15 Jan '24 - 08:53 - 20607 of 20608
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$70m operating costs for Stag in 24, with under 3,000bpd, ain't great.

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 09:12

I think the market has focused too much on the challenges here. We'll see.

[nigelpm] 15/1/2024 09:11

Stag additional opex explained in the presentation.