Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 09:39

Are you serious!!! haha

As Tax/Royalties is included next to Opex figures lets just redefine Opex and include Carbon tax plus royalties? :) :)

It is called getting all the negatives out and starting with a clean slate!!!

I would very much invest in JSE at today's ridiculously low price!!!

1AJM16 Jan '24 - 09:37 - 20664 of 20664
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Why do you think they felt the need to mention royalties and carbon costs right next to the operational costs?

[1ajm] 16/1/2024 09:37

Why do you think they felt the need to mention royalties and carbon tax costs right next to the operational costs?

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 09:35

JSE has exceeded mid-year revised top guidance for 2023!!!

It is apparent to anyone with any insight on the firm that the guidance figures appear conservative - all depends on Akatara start per guidance.

With Montara currently producing at 7000 boe/d management conveyed on 15 Jan 24 call that Montara guidance of 5,000-6,000 boed takes into account declines and possible brief periods of being offline...

Lets see how Serica does....

SteMiS16 Jan '24 - 09:31 - 20662 of 20662
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The company can put out all the projections for 2024 it likes but, with it's history of overpromising and underachieving, the market simply isn't going to take them on trust. 2023 looks like another year in which JSE fails to deliver any real profit.

[stemis] 16/1/2024 09:31

The company can put out all the projections for 2024 it likes but, with it's history of overpromising and underachieving, the market simply isn't going to take them on trust. 2023 looks like another year in which JSE fails to deliver any real profit.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 09:26

Since when is taxation an operating cost??

1AJM16 Jan '24 - 09:17 - 20657 of 20660
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the $30mn for royalties and carbon tax is a cost? thats where I got Operational costs to 300

shocking start to the share price Recovering currently atleast.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 09:25

Current predicament benefits no one other than shorters... Per Euroclear substantial number of shares are borrowed out / likely shorted.

impossible12316 Jan '24 - 08:53 - 20653 of 20659
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Can anyone actually believe senior management esp Mr Blakeley not know more up-keep costs will be required for Montara and Stag in the future? These are old production wells, and in decline. If not, he ought not to lead JSE after calamity after calamity; the sharebacks and dividends - instead of conserving cash for increasing costs for Montara and Stag, and acquisitions - only have benefited the major shareholders and not retail or small investors.

I do not want to sound pessimistic. I think the share share price will do well if maintaining this level or above 25p until RBL renegotiation has been concluded.

A saviour for small shareholders would be a predator in the short term. Even then the major shareholders might not play ball; they could sequestrate JSE super-cheap.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 09:23

JSE share price is irrationally low.

At 5,500 boe/d Montara is 20% of 2024 forecast exit production 26,000 per even 1AJM..

Share price is not reflecting Akatara or Penmal addional 3-4,000 boe/d production!!!

Though it would appear management is not factoring any additional barrels from the Montara drill in q4 2024 for 2024 guidance!!!

yasX16 Jan '24 - 08:27 - 20652 of 20656
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Montara continues to be a thorn in the side of JSE. Given the history, notwithstanding decreasing reliance on this asset, market will factor in the risk of montara surprising ince again to the detriment of JSE.

Overall the reaction to the update yesterday is overly severe presumably reflecting the aforementioned risk.

[nigelpm] 16/1/2024 09:18

Yes - clear buying below 30p - I'm stunned it's back here to be honest.

[1ajm] 16/1/2024 09:17

the $30mn for royalties and carbon tax is a cost? thats where I got Operational costs to 300

shocking start to the share price Recovering currently atleast.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 09:11

As I have pointed out prior - you are an uber negative / appear to be a troll on JSE!!!

ALSO MY FIGURES ARE MID GUIDANCE OR ACTUAL REPORTED FIGURES WHEREAS 1AJM WITH USD 300MN 2024 OPEX, FALSE FIGURES FOR H1 2023 is blatantly falsifying. [Please note JSE handily beat top revised guidance for 2023]

MOREOVER BRENT OIL HAS AVERAGED MORE THAN US$75 for the first two weeks of 2024!!!

YOUR UTTERANCE OF SECONDING YOUR TROLL KIN 1AJM IS OF NO MERIT OR VALUE!!!

BACK UP YOUR ASSERTIONS WITH FACTS RE MY FIGURES ELSE SIT DOWN!!!

pughman16 Jan '24 - 08:18 - 20651 of 20655
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ashkv, the numbers from 1AJM are far more realistic than the pie in the sky projections you have posted ad nauseum over recent times. Blakeley seems to be unaccountable for his abject management and so the Titanic sails on

[sea7] 16/1/2024 09:06

yes they are - taking advantage of the over reaction

[winnet] 16/1/2024 09:03

On the plus side, someone is hoovering them up in 50k blocks...

[impossible123] 16/1/2024 08:53

Can anyone actually believe senior management esp Mr Blakeley not know more up-keep costs will be required for Montara and Stag in the future? These are old production wells, and in decline. If not, he ought not to lead JSE after calamity after calamity; the sharebacks and dividends - instead of conserving cash for increasing costs for Montara and Stag, and acquisitions - only have benefited the major shareholders and not retail or small investors.

I do not want to sound pessimistic. I think the share share price will do well if maintaining this level or above 25p until RBL renegotiation has been concluded.

A saviour for small shareholders would be a predator in the short term. Even then the major shareholders might not play ball; they could sequestrate JSE super-cheap.

[yasx] 16/1/2024 08:27

Montara continues to be a thorn in the side of JSE. Given the history, notwithstanding decreasing reliance on this asset, market will factor in the risk of montara surprising ince again to the detriment of JSE.

Overall the reaction to the update yesterday is overly severe presumably reflecting the aforementioned risk.

[pughman] 16/1/2024 08:18

ashkv, the numbers from 1AJM are far more realistic than the pie in the sky projections you have posted ad nauseum over recent times. Blakeley seems to be unaccountable for his abject management and so the Titanic sails on.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 07:33

From 2023 HY Results

l The average realised oil price1 in H1 2023 was US$86.15/bbl, 21% lower than H1 2022, largely due to lower realised Brent prices year-on-year. The premium achieved in H1 2023 was US$8.87/bbl (H1 2022: US$6.99/bbl) due to relatively high proportion of Stag liftings during H1 2023;

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 07:32

Elsa please see below -> EV/Barrel ridiculously low even with Decom expenses!!!

Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 23,000 boe/d 2024 Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf Acquisition: $34,194

JSE Share Price: 29.00p
Brent: $78.50
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 38.10%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -68.88%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2650
Jadestone 2024 Production Mid-Guidance (20,000-23,000 Boe/d): 21,500
Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): 13,800
Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): 20,000
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 31 Dec 2023: $157,000,000
Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2023: $152,000,000
Net Debt (USD) 31 Dec 2023 : -$5,000,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $78,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £156,800,975
Market Cap (USD): $198,353,233
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $203,353,233
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Mid Guidance Production 21,500 Boe/d $9,458
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average for 2023 (Including Montara Shut-Down): $14,736
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Current Production -> Past 4 week average (As per 15 Jan 2024 RNS): $10,168
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) JSE 2024 23,000 Boe/d Production + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf Acquisition: $33,826
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $3.14
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 159.48%

elsa787816 Jan '24 - 06:51 - 20646 of 20648
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And while you’re at it remind of the decomm costs on Montana and Stag. Thanks

[t_headder] 16/1/2024 07:15

Wasn't it said the shuttle tanker would be gone in September, saving 30k$ per day?Would be good to see some in depth analysis, I only compared guidance to H1 without going into depth & don't do spreadsheets.

[elsa7878] 16/1/2024 06:51

And while you’re at it remind of the decomm costs on Montana and Stag. Thanks

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 06:47

12 month Montara 5,000-6,000 [Montara Premium to Brent is $1.5 - $2]
12 month Stag 2,000-3,000 [Stag Premium to Brent is $22 in 2022 and $16 in H1 2023]
12 month CWLH should be 4400-5000 boe/d [2000 is too low as field issues have been resolved]

Moreover cost forecasts for Montara and Stag are Uber conservative -> Costs for both Montara and Stag are forecast to be lower 2025 onwards. And could be still lower if dedicated tanker is done away with or high tanker rates go down!!!

I WILL UNDERTAKE A COMPARISON WITH FIRMS SUCH AS ENQUEST, TULLOW ETC TO HIGHLIGHT HOW UNDERVALUED JADESTONE ENERGY IS AT 30P.

CRAZY LOW SHARE PRICE!!!

14 Nov 2023 07:00
RNS Number : 3710T
Jadestone Energy PLC
Acquisition of Additional Interest in the CWLH Oil Fields

The CWLH fields produced c. 2,200 bbls/d during Q3 2023 and have averaged c.1,800 bbls/d year-to-date 2023 (both figures net to the Seller's 16.67% interest). Production has regularly exceeded 2,300 bbls/d net to Jadestone in recent months. Year-to-date production was impacted by facilities downtime earlier in 2023, with remediation plans to prevent similar occurrences already being implemented.

[ashkv] 16/1/2024 06:35

At $550mn - $470mn = +$80mn from operations.

Current Market Cap at 30p Market Cap is US$206,815,079

Even with 1AJM doom/gloom forecast JSE at 30p has a forecast Price to Equity (PE) Ratio of = 206/80 = 2.58 :)

How undervalued is that?

And that too with oil price at $75 - which is the lowest among all forecasts for 2024 being the level Citigroup has Brent at!!1

Any upside in oil and even with 1AJM forecast JSE will be at PE Ratio in between 1-2 times Price to Earnings :)

1AJM15 Jan '24 - 23:57 - 20643 of 20643
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Harsh day for the share price. Don't even want to guess if tomorrow will drop more or stay level.

[xxnjr] 15/1/2024 16:07

Crikey! Things are really bad according to Malcy.
"the target for this year is 20-23 boe/d"

[pughman] 15/1/2024 15:53

Stag produced 2,879 barrels in H1 23. They spent $60m on infills in late 22 when there was talk of 4000bpd.For this year, 366×90×2879=$95m, with $70m operating costs. That production number is generous until the next infill. It does put the business model under scrutiny.