Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[1ajm] 19/12/2023 08:55

An article extract from when JSE bought the PM323 asset along with the other Malaysia assets. Was 6k production when they bought it.

SapuraOMV Upstream (Malaysia) Inc (“SapuraOMV221;), has agreed to sell its entire interests, under SOMV Upstream (PM) Inc. in various producing assets, located offshore Peninsular Malaysia to Jadestone Energy PLC, a Singapore-based, London-listed, an independent oil and gas company. These producing assets are PM323, PM329, PM318 and AAKBNLP Production Sharing Contracts (the “PM Assets”). The agreed purchase price is USD 9 million, subject to closing adjustments. There are also contingent payments of up to USD 6 million dependent on certain oil price criteria being met. The effective date of the transaction is January 1, 2021. SapuraOMV’s average year-to-date net entitlement production of the PM Assets is around 6 thousand barrels oil equivalent per day.

[1ajm] 19/12/2023 08:16

a good day today? the constant 10%+/- fluctuations here every few weeks are like pre covid JSE. some kind of stratergy or just normal?

[1ajm] 18/12/2023 16:50

You have to decide whether you trust a good 6-12 months for rebuild. If they do, they are going to have a company a lot stronger than before the Montara mishaps.

End of the day JSE mainly buy old assets and dropped the ball with maintenance at Montana (i'm blaming the covid period followed by $100+ oil for them being late/greedy), and were punished pretty heavily for it, I don't wanna think where the price would be without that, but which AIM oiler doesn't ever have a share price dropping event.

Not worried about stag, NOPSEMA went and gave it the all clear, it's hardly an office job environment. (if they did bypass protocols that resulted in a small fire I hope JSE take it seriously even if it's something NOPSEMA are not bothered about.)

Investors here who were probably buying in the 80p+ range are feeling anxious for sure. If you're buying in at this price it seems a fairly good opportunity. If they are not paranoid / doing maintenance early at this point then I don't know. Also when Montara was shut in it was a much bigger % of the companies production than it is even now, not taking into account Akatara next year.

Some of JSE peers at this market cap are laughable in comparison.

IMO DYOR. no post on here should ever make the decision for you.

[fireplace22] 18/12/2023 16:16

Unfortunately they wouldn't be allowed internet access from their secure ward.

[pughman] 18/12/2023 16:06

Would the non nervous holder of JSE shares like to introduce themselves.

[paduardo] 18/12/2023 15:52

Jacks - that is a good question. I see potential for this to be a serious multi bagger if there are no more operational issues however it is an uncomfortable hold given their performance over the last year. I will probably reduce the size of my holding but am a little bit reluctant given the potential gain and am interested in what other peoples thoughts are. There are some knowledgeable posters out there.

[jacks13] 18/12/2023 15:19

pad - if you're this nervous about the health of JSE why do you hold?

[s34icknote] 18/12/2023 15:10

Brent heading back up to the eighties ?

[paduardo] 18/12/2023 14:28

NK104 We get the drone flyover video / update by mid month at the latest. They tweet out the update and give their latests view on the (approximate) percentage completion. We havent got that this month. Probably being overly cautions but JSE has had an interesting year and I think it is fair to say have not been great at updating if issues have emerged.

Thanks MT will have a look.

[mount teide] 18/12/2023 14:27

pad - read some of the NOPSEMA prohibition notices and general directions issued to operators of O&G facilities in Australian waters over the last 2-3 years.

Gives a good overview's of how reasonable they are - and they're a regulatory authority considered to be one of the more demanding!

[nk104] 18/12/2023 14:00

On 2 - we had the following on 4 December

Akatara

The Akatara development project is currently 87% complete and pre-commissioning activities have commenced, with the project remaining on schedule for first gas before mid-2024. Approximately 1,600 workers are currently on site, with c.3.2 million safe manhours worked to date on the Akatara project.

The mobilisation of the Elang-1 rig to the Akatara project is now expected in the third week of December 2023 (previously end of November) to workover five existing wells which will provide the raw gas feed into the Akatara Gas Processing Facility. This change in timing will not impact the first gas date.


Not sure what else you'd want after two weeks.

[paduardo] 18/12/2023 13:51

What are peoples thoughts on

1. The Stag incident. I don't like the fact that NOPSEMA have decided to do an independent investigation but am reassured that they were happy to let Jadestone do it until they got put under Union pressure. What do people think is the maximum downside risk? Could it threaten their licence to operate in an extreme scenario?

2. Why have we not had an Akatara update? Are there delays (there was some reference to this in the last RNS) which means they are reluctant to provide one? As a long term JSE shareholder silence is always ominous.

Cheers

[1ajm] 18/12/2023 11:38

I've corrected that typo.

I think the three wells being c7,000bopd and the 4th being 3,500bopd were gross rates.

They get 60% + operate the field.

[ashkv] 18/12/2023 11:33

20,000 boe/d current low tax production and an Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) of only USD 226 million!!!

This when another 6000-8000 boed comes online in Q2 2024 as Akatara running ahead of schedule!!!!

UNREAL VALUATION!!!!

[thedudie] 18/12/2023 11:29

1AJM -- I thought the East Belumut update only included 3 of the new wells with the 4th expected online at around 3500bopd

[ashkv] 18/12/2023 11:29

On 5 Dec 23 - Brent was at $77 (same as today) and JSE share price 39p!!!

Bargain buying opportunity!!!

JSE Share Price: 34.25p
Brent: $77.00
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 21p on 18 Aug 23: 63.10%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 93.2p on 8 Mar 23: -63.25%
Shares Outstanding: 540,693,017
GBPUSD: 1.2650
4 Dec 23 RNS Revised Upward Range Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production Mid-Guidance (14,500 - 15,000 boe/d from APR 23 to DEC 23 ): 14,750
Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23: 13,500
Current Production -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): 20,000
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt (USD) (USD 200 Million Reserves Based Lending (RBL) Draw) as of 30 June 23: $111,000,000
Cash (USD) 30 June 2023: $118,782,000
Net Cash (USD) 30 June 2023 : $7,782,000
Available Credit (Remaining USD 200Million RBL Available + USD 35Million Standby Facility): $124,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £185,187,358
Market Cap (USD): $234,262,008
ENTERPRISE VALUE (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) (USD): $226,480,008
EV/Barrel(USD) Revised Upward per 4 Dec 23 RNS Mid-Guidance for Q2-Q4 2023 Average Production: $15,355
EV/Barrel(USD) Jadestone Production Average from 1 Jan 23 to 4 Dec 23 (Montara Offline Q1 2023): $16,776
EV/Barrel(USD) -> Nov 2023 last 2 weeks Avg Production (As per 4 Dec 23 RNS): $11,324
EV/Barrel(USD) 2022 Actual Average Production: $19,716
EV/Barrel(USD) 2024 Forecast Production Mid Guidance (24,000 Boe/d): $9,437
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - HY 2023 Results): $574,656,000
EV/Barrel (USD) Top Guidance + Decommissioning Expense Including NW Shelf: $40,057
2P Reserves (Boe) as of 31 December 2022: 64,800,000
EV/2P: $3.50
Bloomberg Analyst Summary -> JSE Target Price (Avg of all 5 Analysts Reviewing JSE per BBG) as of 18 Dec 23: 75.25p
% Upside to 12 Month Analyst Target Price: 119.71%

[swanvesta] 18/12/2023 11:28

Please, it's Belumut not Belmont.

[1ajm] 18/12/2023 11:12

September 19th. Share price 36p.

Montara 6,250bop/d still fresh from major shutins, currently 7,500bop/d and no more reported problems.

East Belumut first drill complete 2,800bop/d gross with expectation of water cut to develop, currently all 4 wells producing 7,000bop/d net to JSE.

Akatara projected 65% complete projected end of september, currently around 90%.

CWLH +16.67% interest purchase 2,000bop/d.

Brent brice $92, currently $77.

Unions being a menace at stag.

Current share price 35.5p,

Sub 40p year end will be dissapointing, although overall it's JSE fault, the lack of recovery since september certainly isn't JSE fault. More capable now than before montara issues.

We are in the doom and gloom part of the oil price cycle which seems to revolve every 6 months, hopefully the market makers... sorry manipulators decide the new year will be a time to raise the oil price with a splash of OPEC news and global demand news and we can enjoy some share price recovery.

mid next year with akatara online, fixed price gas sales, 6 months of 20,000bopd, 25,000 bop/d current and stronger oil price? is the bigger goal than year end price target.

Belumut acting so different than expectations still gives me the jitters, ill try not to curse it.

IMO DYOR, know the risks.

[1ajm] 18/12/2023 11:12

Get a grip.

[ashkv] 18/12/2023 11:07

Bid incoming at 70p if these crazy low levels persist for JSE - bargain of 2023 at present!!!

AS OF TODAY (18 December 2023) PER BLOOMBERG TERMINAL THE RESEARCH ANALYST AVERAGE 12 MONTH TARGET PRICE FOR JADESTONE ENERGY ACROSS ALL 5 ANALYSTS WHO COVER JSE THE FIGURE IS 75.25p

Over the past 3 months the lowest analyst 12 month target at 60p is by the Jefferies analyst and the highest 12 month target price of 91p is by the Panmure Gordon Analyst!!!

[ashkv] 18/12/2023 11:06

Market is generally forward looking!!!

Montara is back online and presently for the past few months consistently producing more than prior to recent minor shut-in.

Add to the above a hugely successful drill outcome/production boost and now Akatara nearly 90% complete!!!

Share price should be 45-50p to reflect these positive developments oil price and all else ceteris paribus!!!

[1ajm] 18/12/2023 10:59

Your point that the share price was only 38p prior to the second Montana shut-in hurts and devalues the share price. You'd still need to value that in, which was -16p to 22p to the share price and another chunk of revenue loss on the full year financials.

Why are you highlighting that?

JSE have overcome those issues and have made big steps in BOPD since then.

Analyst forecasts are a load of hot garbage, just look back to what they forecasted the end of year 2023 price to be and then compare it to reality.

You have to be a shorter/non-holder/troll?