Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[jtcod] 05/3/2018 07:18

No I have not seen it chestnuts

[chestnuts] 04/3/2018 18:03

Have you looked at the slush fund set up for final salarie pensions its doomed to failure, for example Heinze in 2016 put £373M into it they only have £1.6 billion in there fund.

[jtcod] 04/3/2018 12:25

I've been looking at state Pension Deficits again and for me the truly mind boggling fact is that the UK deficit projection for 2050 ($33trillion) is only bested by USA, China and India. Obviously pension deficits are based upon obligations promised some time down the road and one could reasonably assume therefore that UK promises would be pretty generous but of all OECD countries we have promised the least. The OECD average pension promise is 63% of wages. The UK promises just 38%. It shows that our Government funding arrangements over past years have been monumentally inadequate. Some may say dishonest. On a per capita basis we have the unenviable standing of being the most dishonest of any government of any major country in the world. As one financial pundit has commented: "It's a problem that is far bigger than even the most disciplined, future-focused governments and businesses can easily handle. Worse, generations of politicians have convinced the public that their entitlements are guaranteed. Many politicians actually believe it themselves. They've made promises they aren't able to keep and are letting others arrange their lives based on the assumption that the impossible will happen. It won't."2050 State Pension Deficit Projection1: USA $137trn2: China $119trn3: India $85trn4: UK $33trn5: Japan $26trn6: Canada $13trn7: Australia $9trn8: Netherlands $6trn2050 State Pension Deficit Projection (per capita)1: UK $500k2: USA $423k 3: Australia $367k4: Canada $355k5: Netherlands $353k6: Japan $205k7: China $85k8: India $63k2050 State Pension Deficit Projection (ratio to GDP)1: India 3470%2: UK 1320%3: China 1008%4: Canada 812%5: Netherlands 786%6: USA 706%7: Australia 643%8: Japan 537%The most concerning table for me has to be Per Capita because it's the potential for productivity over the next 30yrs which is likely to be the greatest asset of any nation trying to address the problem. One would expect for instance the GDP per capita of say India to improve faster than the UK. Any nation with demographics tilted toward the young will of course also benefit. A) It delays the Bill and b) There is a higher weighting toward earners from which to pay the obligations.

[jtcod] 04/3/2018 09:22

Good to see they make mistakes in Rugby too Serratia. Quite often when a football supporter or pundit sees a goal that should have stood they quote Rugby as getting it right. :-)

[serratia] 03/3/2018 13:50

To add a little humour to the day. Wales used to have a goat as a mascot for the opening of the rugby internationals in Cardiff. The other week the TMO disallowed a Welsh try that afterwards the rugby governing body should have stood. Someone tracked down the goat in retirement and asked for his opinion of the incident.
Apart from the goat both teams supporters took it all in good grace.

[jtcod] 03/3/2018 11:05

There are levels FP. At a certain point it becomes offensive to people and I wish to avoid that. Imo there is no place for it here.

[fireplace22] 03/3/2018 10:43

JTCod I sympathise with what you say but the political and macro economic debate on this board is far more interesting than reading about Immuparma ad nauseum.

[jtcod] 03/3/2018 09:00

MT. This blog was setup primarily as an investment blog and friendly chat room and for years it remained that way. It was never meant as a platform for right wing political rhetoric attacking minority classes. I am not seeking to enter a debate on the subject. I would just ask you to find an alternative forum for this subject matter.

[jtcod] 02/3/2018 11:30

I am no fan of Trump or Trade Wars but they will deliver inflation. Perhaps that's part of Trumps strategy. He is also fighting the Fed to raise interest rates. Unusual that for a businessman but for a politician it makes it easier to sell the debt he needs to fulfil some of the promises.

[jtcod] 01/3/2018 10:31

For those interestedAutomation, Robotics and the Factory of the Futurehttps://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/automation-robotics-and-the-factory-of-the-futureWorkforce Transitions in a Time of Automation https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Future%20of%20Organizations/What%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/MGI-Jobs-Lost-Jobs-Gained-Report-December-6-2017.ashx

[ballsac] 01/3/2018 08:42

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[jtcod] 01/3/2018 08:13

Retail landlords are going to take a battering this year. As an insolvency expert said on the radio this morning after Toys R Us and Maplins went into administration "This is just the tip of an iceberg". Part of the reason is the first rate rise last year made Retail Insurers and Banks more vigilant. The insurers started withdrawing cover for the perceived weak companies and Banks did the same by refusing and reducing and renegotiating terms on renewals for credit lines in a bid to be proactive in the face of rising rates. This will throw up some much needed indicators on real world commercial investment valuations. Something the industry was short of in 2017 as some major players were smart enough to exit.I think 2018 will see the biggest fall in commercial retail related property investment values since 2008.

[jtcod] 28/2/2018 08:50

It must be your natural charisma drawing them in from far and wide chestnuts. :-)

[chestnuts] 28/2/2018 08:48

JTC

But on the same foot i pop into the Drunken Duck pub near Hawkshead and its always busy every time i pop in even during the afternoon.

[jtcod] 28/2/2018 08:38

I was in Debenhams Canterbury last week and walked through an entire department and part way through a second before I encountered another customer. This was mid afternoon on a Tuesday. Equally when I walked passed the gates to Canterbury Cathedral I noticed that 4 restaurant/tea room/Coffee shop establishments within 50 yds in either direction were closed down. That is prime retail in front of the Cathedral and has been for 100's of years. I wouldn't want to be a retail landlord right now.

[jtcod] 28/2/2018 08:30

It's interesting to get a scale of the productivity improvements possible with new technology. Levi is in the process of going over to using lasers instead of workers for making their Jeans. Production will go from 2-3 pairs of Jeans an hour to 40 per hour.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43217596Levi indicate their production partners have been able to redeploy most of the workers. Though this may partly be Levi managing brand perception I guess. The workers were with other companies overseas so it's not something easily monitored. It's an indicator though that by far the biggest casualty of the move to robot workers will be the lower skilled in foreign and often poorer communities. Easier to make the decision when it's not on your doorstep and not even your employees.

[jtcod] 27/2/2018 15:19

I certainly accept that this may be an evolutionary change rather than revolutionary MT. Perhaps most economists and politicians are grandstanding for attention when they use the latter word. It wouldn't be the first time. However, these are not all throw away comments. Some reports are starting surface too.A recent report by PWC for instance forecast "30% of the workforce could be lost by 2030." The BoE suggest "15m jobs may be at risk"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/27/jobs-risk-automation-according-oxford-university-one/If that proves to be correct then it would certainly be revolutionary to my mind and whilst it is easy for onlookers such as ourselves to be ambivalent on the subject, that would not seem a safe course of action for treasury officials as the required changes to the Tax System would be equally revolutionary. People rarely lose their job or seat for being ahead of the game and it just makes sense to me, given the potential for change here, that people start discussing how they are going to adapt the system.

[mount teide] 27/2/2018 11:46

How to completely subjugate 500 million people with just two words:

'Pooled Sovereignty '

"The work of GENIUS" - Goebbels and Mugabe

[jtcod] 26/2/2018 21:26

Well it could be sci-fi or it could be back to the Stone Age depending how it's handled BA. :-)

[blusteradjuster] 26/2/2018 21:02

JTC,

Many talk of an “automation tax” on the owners of the AI/robot “capital”; to fund a UBI.

Of course the capital-owners would resist UBI ... until enough workers are displaced to vote a UBI-promising government into power.

The capital-owners might seek to create a police state to avoid democratic erosion of their standing ... but maybe I’ve watched too much sci-fi..

[chestnuts] 26/2/2018 20:07

I came across this and when reading it sounds like all our problems have disappeared

hxxp://www.cityam.com/281199/now-fog-has-lifted-uks-post-brexit-future-looks-bright